UFC 142 Preview

The UFC’s second trip to Brazil within a year has garnered much less enthusiasm than the previous “Rio” event, as many mainstream MMA fans have not yet hopped onto the Aldo Train. Then there’s the matter of Jose Aldo’s challenger, Chad Mendes, who is a good fighter but hasn’t put on the most exciting bouts himself. The co-main event of Vitor Belfort against Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is a solid fight, but does not have the marquee power of most co-main event bouts these days, either.

Then, you have the undeniable power of Tebow. Yes, try getting your usual group of 5-10 friends together to watch Aldo-Mendes and Belfort-Johnson when most of them would be quite happy watching Broncos-Patriots and hoping to see Tim Tebow either a)improbably succeed yet again or b)be utterly humiliated and maybe even set on fire. Even in Brazil there’s a question mark surrounding television viewership due to the fact that the Belfort fight won’t even happen until about 2am local time.

Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim

Barboza continues to impress as a top prospect at lightweight, while Etim flies under the radar a bit but regularly proves that he can get it done against solid competition, as well. The combination of aggressiveness and stubbornness of each fighter should make for a lively bout here.

The key factor should be the leg kicks of Barboza. He throws them well and has a reach advantage over most of his competitors at 155 pounds, Etim included. Etim will have to close the distance, and if things work out for him the stinging leg kicks may convince him to make this fight take place either in a proverbial phone booth or on the mat. That’s where he needs to be to compete, in my opinion.

However, I’ll go with Barboza’s athleticism and better overall striking here. He’ll take the wind out of Etim’s sails, slowly but surely. Etim’s a tough guy to finish, so Barboza gets a clear decision victory.

Prediction: Barboza by decision

Carlo Prater vs. Erick Silva

Prater, long a mainstay in the MMA world, just now makes his UFC debut at age 30. He brings a four-fight winning streak into the bout with Silva, who himself has lost just once in his career. Silva has one UFC fight under his belt, a winning effort by first-round TKO against overwhelmed late replacement Luis Ramos at the last UFC event in Brazil.

Silva gets about as cushy a start to his career as one could hope for. His first two fights are in his home country, and both now have been against late replacements. Prater is the kind of guy who stays in shape regardless and he should be ready to go from a cardio perspective, but he is not the kind of fighter the UFC would expect to give Silva a serious go of it.

Prater boasts some really good wins on his resume: Melvin Guillard, Carlos Condit, Spencer Fisher. However, those were all several years ago and much has changed in the interim. Prater does still have a very slick ground game, but will he get the chance to use it? Silva is the better standup fighter and has the reach advantage, to boot. Prater does not have high-level offensive wrestling, and he will be forced to shoot from way outside as it is. The writing’s on the wall, here.

Prediction: Silva by KO/TKO

Mike Massenzio vs. Rousimar Palhares

If you are truly on the fence about whether to order this PPV, the presence of Palhares should sway you to do so. Whether he’s prematurely celebrating victories, taking his eyes off his opponent to question the ref mid-fight (and getting knocked out for it), slapping on nasty heelhooks or simply putting on exhibitions of remarkable strangeness at grappling tournaments, Palhares always entertains.

Massenzio will be forced to simply survive throughout much of this bout. Palhares hits harder (though Massenzio formerly fought at light heavyweight), is much more dangerous on the mat (top or bottom position, either way) and is a better athlete, too. Massenzio will need a gutsy effort that allows him to exploit what has often been iffy cardio by Palhares, and even that is a low percentage “Hail Mary” pass of a strategy.

This fight will go to the mat, and Palhares will finish it there. Massenzio’s greatest strength is his wrestling, which puts him right where Palhares wants him. He can force a scramble and seize one of Massenzio’s legs, submit Massenzio off of his back, or even get a takedown or sweep himself en route to damaging ground and pound or a leglock attempt. Massenzio is in deep trouble here.

Prediction: Palhares by submission

Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson

Though “Rumble” has never been as heralded as Belfort was in his early days, each of these fighters has at one time or another failed to live up to the hype. Belfort, of course, was a guy who could box before anyone else in MMA seemed to know how to, but an awful run after his initial UFC days characterized by strange, lazy and lethargic performances deflated expectations for him until a relatively recent resurgence (alliteration!).

Johnson, on the other hand, had his hype train momentarily derailed by a submission loss to Josh Koscheck, though he has managed to string together a couple of solid victories since that setback. He was always a big welterweight, so he should have no problem physically competing at middleweight.

My main question going into this bout was whether Johnson would stubbornly play into Belfort’s game. Belfort has shown time and time again that he wins only one type of fight, and that’s the type of fight where his opponent allows him to dictate the action. Johnson was smart enough to (perhaps unnecessarily) take down Dan Hardy and out-wrestle him, what are the chances of him not taking the same strategy into his fight with “The Phenom”? Any concerns I had in that area were removed when Johnson flat out said he was looking to put Belfort on the mat and pound on him in the pre-fight press conference.

Can Belfort stop Johnson’s takedowns? Some of them, I’m sure. However, if Johnson is truly dedicated to this strategy, Belfort will be tied up for much of the fight and may end up either tiring out or simply wilting under the pressure, as he has sometimes done in the past. The real danger here is that Belfort will take one of the opportunities that he does get to land a succession of damaging punches that will lead to a quick win. That doesn’t seem like a high-percentage play to me, and Belfort has lost this type of fight before.

Prediction: Johnson by decision

UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

Many have taken Aldo’s lackluster (by his standards, at least) performances of late to mean that he has a tenuous grip on his featherweight title, but I won’t make that mistake. What you have to do in this sport is win, and I don’t think any specific elements from his UFC fights so far carry over into this particular bout in any meaningful way. Mendes, for better or worse, is a different animal from Kenny Florian or Mark Hominick.

Mendes may not be purely one-dimensional, as he has come along pretty well in all areas, but he is single-minded in his strategy. Make no mistake, he will be looking for takedowns all night long against Aldo. And yes, he will get them. Maybe not every time, but he will definitely put Aldo on his back in this fight.

Then what, though? Mendes has trouble finishing fights from any position, even when he’s in the top position. His control is pretty good, but Aldo is not easy to hold down. He’ll be active off of his back with submissions, strikes and efforts to stand back up, as well. Let’s not forget that depending on who the ref is, we may get frequent standups, as well.

The real key here is that Aldo will be much better in the standup portions of this bout. He’ll be looking to do what he did to Urijah Faber; you can expect plenty of leg kicks early and often. Many would advise against leg kicking a wrestler, but I say why not? He’s going to get his takedowns, you might as well do what you want to do and not let it affect you. It’s a five round fight and Aldo will have many chances to bust up Mendes.

Over time, Aldo will either land enough shots to sufficiently weaken Mendes or put him away altogether. Mendes will be ready to fight, but he just won’t have the tools to take Aldo’s belt. I see Mendes winning a round or two early, but the momentum will swing Aldo’s way much more definitively. Look for knees from Aldo when Mendes shoots, especially late in the fight when Mendes is tiring and his attempts are easier to spot and more telegraphed.

Prediction: Aldo by KO/TKO

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Tags: Anthony Johnson, Carlo Prater, Chad Mendes, Edson Barboza, Erick Silva, Jose Aldo, Mike Massenzio, Rousimar Palhares, Terry Etim, UFC, UFC 142, Vitor Belfort