UFC Fight Night 20 Preview and Picks

The first live UFC event on Spike TV in 2010 airs in just a couple of hours, with UFC Fight Night 20 coming to us from Fairfax, Virginia.  Featuring a main event between hopeful lightweight title contender Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz, as well as bouts featuring “The Ultimate Fighter” standouts Efrain Escudero and Amir Sadollah, it’s a solid way to continue the year for the UFC.

Amir Sadollah vs. Brad Blackburn

Everyone is aware of Sadollah’s history with the UFC, which got off to a poor start with a long gap between fights due to injuries, then a controversial stoppage loss to Johny Hendricks.  While Sadollah got back on track with a convincing decision win over Phil Baroni, the UFC clearly is not handing easy opponents to him, as Brad Blackburn presents a challenge in many respects.

Blackburn’s 15-9-1 record may not be extremely impressive, but he has reeled off a 5-0-1 streak in his last six fights, and boasts the kind of experience that can’t be replicated with hard work even in a top gym, like Xtreme Couture.  At the same time, Blackburn’s striking is more refined than Sadollah’s, and Sadollah won’t be likely to get Blackburn to the mat if he needs to.  Even if he does, it’s unlikely that Sadollah’s jiu-jitsu has gotten to the point where he will submit a veteran with only two career submission losses.

The blueprint on Blackburn is to win by decision or pound out a victory on the ground after multiple takedowns, and Sadollah won’t be able to do that.  What’s left will be a stand-up war, which I don’t think Sadollah will win, though it will be a competitive fight, for sure.

Prediction: Blackburn by decision

Aaron Simpson vs. Tom Lawlor

Two fighters who are, for all intents and purposes, undefeated will meet up on the main card tonight, too.  Simpson carries a 6-0 record, impressive wrestling skills and a frenetic pace into the cage.  Meanwhile, Lawlor’s only loss is by disqualification for an illegal knee, and he has proven to be a well-rounded fighter with opportunistic submission skills.

Lawlor will be unlikely to decide where the fight takes place, though if Simpson isn’t careful, there’s always the possibility that Lawlor will get the fight to the mat or stop takedowns that are poorly set up.  If Simpson uses his tools correctly, though, Lawlor will be stuck wherever Simpson chooses, which means the fight should stay standing unless he feels that Lawlor can compete in that realm.

Lawlor must be ready from the opening bell for the pace that Simpson will set, and must match his intensity or be quickly overwhelmed.  At the same time, Simpson must not make any silly mistakes with his aggressive style, or Lawlor will capitalize.  The problem for Lawlor is that if Simpson fights a smart fight and sticks to his strengths while channeling his aggressiveness properly, it’s his fight to lose.  I think Simpson will overwhelm Lawlor eventually, probably in the second round or later.

Prediction: Simpson by KO/TKO

Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

This will be probably the closest fight on the card, as the UFC is apparently hell-bent on one of these men losing their undefeated records before the night is through.  Both men are two fights into their UFC careers, both are solid wrestlers, and both are confident strikers.  This could be one of those matchups between two strong wrestlers that ends up being a kickboxing war of sorts, although I think we’ll see periodic takedown attempts from both men, as well.

Dunham has the “safer” style, in a way: he throws straighter, more fundamentally sound punches.  However, Escudero is more likely to end the fight with a solid shot from the standing position, and he has shown more of a range of skills with his jiu-jitsu, as well.  Still, I don’t see either man ending this one while the fight remains standing.  I’m also not convinced that this will go to the judges, since both fighters are much better in the top position than on the bottom when the fight hits the mat.  The question is, who will be able to take the other down with more regularity?

This is really a coin flip in many respects, but since I see Escudero planting his feet and throwing bigger punches, I also see Dunham having better opportunities for takedowns.  I think that either fighter will advance position when they take the top position, but I don’t see Dunham winning by submission.  Against my own better instincts, I’ll go with Dunham by way of a decision in a very hotly-contested bout.

Prediction: Dunham by decision

Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz

The toughest part of breaking down this one will be stretching out what to me is a very obvious prediction into something that represents a well-thought out analysis.

Oops.

Seriously though: didn’t we see this fight twice last year?  Diaz is not likely to have revamped his takedown defense, and does not have any semblance of a “puncher’s chance” from the standing position, as the high-volume punching style that has become a Diaz trademark seems to work much better for his brother, who packs a bit more power and mixes up his accurate strikes beautifully.

What we’re left with is a fight where an exceedingly cerebral wrestler (Maynard) will have to replicate what he already saw two other fighters do last year, all while avoiding a fight-ending submission from the slick Stockton, California native.  Is there a chance he won’t succeed?  I guess so, but it’s hard to imagine that Diaz will catch Maynard the way that he did during their time together on “The Ultimate Fighter”.  Maynard has improved by leaps and bounds since then, and has a possible title shot against BJ Penn dangling in front of him to keep him motivated.  He has also been able to train for this fight knowing that a mistake-free fight where he avoids getting caught in a submission is all that he needs to muster to get what he wants: a showdown with Penn.

I just don’t see Diaz being able to stop Maynard’s takedowns, and instead, I see a frustrating fifteen minute bout for Diaz.  I do have a lot of respect for the jiu-jitsu game of Diaz, and it’s always possible that he catches Maynard with a triangle choke or other submission, but I attribute my prediction more to the fact that Maynard will fight a very careful, conservative fight than to any lack of ability on the part of Diaz.

Prediction: Maynard by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Tags: Amir Sadollah, Efrain Escudero, Gray Maynard, Nate Diaz, Tom Lawlor, UFC, UFC Fight Night 20