UFC Fight Night 21 Preview and Picks

As always, the premiere of yet another season of “The Ultimate Fighter” is following what will hopefully be a great night of fights, including a pivotal matchup between two-time challenger for the lightweight title, Kenny Florian and Takanori Gomi, who makes his UFC debut tonight. We’ll also see last season’s champion (Roy Nelson) in action, along with what is sure to be a slugfest between heavy-handed fighters Nate Quarry and Jorge Rivera. Here are my picks and a preview of each main card fight:

Ross Pearson vs. Dennis Siver

These two have only four decisions total in their 25 combined wins, which gives fans a good idea of what to expect tonight when they face off. Both are excellent strikers, though Pearson is a more conservative, technical striker than Siver, who has used spinning back kicks to put down his last two of his last three opponents en route to TKO victories.

Whenever you have talented, aggressive strikers who appear to be evenly matched on paper squaring off, it’s tough to predict how the fight will end. How this fight flows depends on who initiates the exchanges, whether Siver continues to take chances with unorthodox techniques, and whether Pearson will get sucked into loosening up and brawling with Siver as a result of those techniques. For what it’s worth, I will favor Pearson because I think that he can make Siver pay for any mistakes that his creative striking may cause. This is the closest fight on the card to call, in my opinion. What’s not hard to predict is that this one will not be going to the judges for a decision.

Prediction: Pearson by KO/TKO

Nate Quarry vs. Jorge Rivera

Anyone who somehow found the GSP-Hardy fight “boring” will want to tune in tonight, for sure, because these two fighters will present another slugfest to enjoy during the proceedings.

Quarry has looked good since coming back from a lengthy layoff that required a major back surgery and even threatened his entire career.  His only loss since coming back was a quick submission loss to Demian Maia, and let’s face it…there’s no shame in that.  Meanwhile, Jorge Rivera is another UFC veteran from the pre-TUF days and has always been a well-rounded fighter.  His striking is more versatile than that of Quarry, as Quarry focuses on boxing and doesn’t utilize kicks very often in his fights.  Of course, Quarry is at least somewhat of a threat to take Rivera down, especially if he plants his feet to throw some big shots.  Will he even try for a takedown, though?  Probably not.

One edge that I think Quarry has here is his chin.  He’s only been knocked out by Rich Franklin, which was one of the more vicious knockouts in UFC history, to boot.  He also has more power than Rivera, in my estimation.  Therefore, I have to go with Quarry in what could be a great fight.  Both of these fighters are 38 years old and it may be too late for either to make a real dent in the middleweight division, but this will be a fun fight.

Prediction: Quarry by KO/TKO

Roy Nelson vs. Stefan Struve

This is perhaps the most interesting fight on the card, because either fighter could win if they fight a smart fight an take advantage of their respective strengths.  Nelson’s decent power is no longer a secret after his highlight reel KO of Brendan Schaub, but Struve could make it very difficult for the big man to get close enough to throw those kinds of shots if he uses his reach intelligently.  The problem is, Struve’s standup has still not evolved to the point where he can properly do so, and Nelson is a cagey vet who will just blindly rush in to close the distance, if he must.  In that scenario, there’s nothing Struve will be able to do to really make Nelson pay for his aggression.

I do think that this fight will hit the mat, and on paper, it may seem as if Struve would be a threat once it does.  However, most of Struve’s 14 submissions come from using his lanky limbs to trap opponents in arm bars and triangle chokes, and Nelson has seen both of those particular techniques a million times before.  Furthermore, Nelson is active at passing the guard, and will likely end up in half-guard, or worse, side mount throughout a lot of the fight.  From those positions, Nelson can quite figuratively suffocate Struve, and I think at some point, that’s just what will happen en route to a late TKO from punches.

Prediction: Nelson by KO/TKO

Takanori Gomi vs. Kenny Florian

The fighter who was seen as the world’s number one lightweight just a few years ago will make his UFC debut tonight, and Kenny Florian has been chosen to greet him.  Gomi has been a mixed bag of sorts over the last year and a half or so, as his two straight wins were preceded by two straight losses.  Gomi has been vulnerable to submissions in the past, though I don’t expect that Florian will go that route in a fight that figures to be largely contested from a standing position.  If a submission happens, it will be because Florian’s conditioning or striking puts Gomi in a vulnerable position.

Florian’s precise striking will be his main weapon, as Gomi is more of a brawler and has leaned towards a less technical style of striking over the last couple of years.  As with Gomi’s former opponent, Jens Pulver, “The Fireball Kid” seems to have abandoned a well-rounded fighting style in favor of looking for constant knockouts, which has not served him very well.  Many times it has been said that looking for knockouts makes it harder to actually get them, and swinging for the fences leaves you vulnerable to pinpoint counter-strikes, as well.  That’s what Florian will be utilizing throughout this fight.

I don’t know that Florian has the power to put Gomi away, and if there is a finish, I lean towards a late submission, especially if Gomi has not improved his conditioning.  He says he’s taking this fight seriously, though, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt in that department.  Where I can’t do so is in regard to his striking style, where I think that continuing to look for powerful knockouts will cost him this bout.

Prediction: Florian by decision

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Tags: Dennis Siver, Jorge Rivera, Kenny Florian, Nate Quarry, Rich Franklin, Ross Pearson, Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve, Takanori Gomi, UFC, UFC Fight Night 21