UFC Fight Night 22 Preview and Picks

It’s been awhile since we had a free UFC card, and whether you’re a fan of the (played out?) dramatics of “The Ultimate Fighter” or not, each season brings with it a couple of free, live fight cards, which is certainly a positive thing. So, whether you’re tuning out after Nate Marquardt and Rousimar Palhares do battle or planning on watching yet another season of “The Ultimate Fighter”, here’s your rundown of tonight’s fights, complete with my own predictions. As always, place wagers with your friends/co-workers/family members/local mafia associates based on these picks at your own risk!

Cole Miller vs. Ross Pearson

Miller has technically been a success in his time in the Octagon, posting a 5-2 record in the world’s toughest MMA organization. However, he can’t seem to sustain any momentum, as he will win a couple of fights, then lose one, only to repeat the pattern again in his next few fights. He comes to tonight’s event with a win over Dan Lauzon, who had a falling out with his training team (including his brother, Joe) before gassing out in their fight. He may not be able to put two wins together yet again tonight, though, because standing in his way is the UK’s Ross Pearson.

Pearson has very good technical striking that is still somehow underrated by casual fans, most of whom believe that the talent level of “The Ultimate Fighter” has dropped off in recent seasons (which it has) and that someone like Pearson must be a mid-level talent at best because of that (which isn’t quite fair to say). The truth is, Miller is probably licking his chops thinking about fighting Pearson, because he won’t believe that Pearson will have an answer for his grappling if (when?) the fight hits the mat. Should Miller be so excited to face Pearson, though? I don’t know.

I am not sure whether Pearson will have the wrestling to keep his fights upright as he continues to face tougher and tougher UFC opponents, but he won’t need to have top-notch wrestling tonight, because Miller’s takedowns are far from elite. What Miller does have working for him is that he will take the fight to the mat by any means necessary, including unconventional takedowns, trips, or pulling guard. However, Pearson can handle himself in most situations long enough to get back to his feet, and I don’t think he will play Miller’s game for long if Miller does pull guard.

When the two are standing, Pearson has a huge advantage. For whatever reason, Miller has never blossomed into being a good striker, and Pearson will exploit opportunities left and right. Eventually, he should wear Miller down with solid strikes until the referee is ready to step in.

Prediction: Pearson by KO/TKO

Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau

This is a fantastic fight which could go a long way in determining a future lightweight title contender in 2011. It may seem crazy, but look at what Miller and Tibau have done in the UFC and you will see it’s true. With Gray Maynard about to get a shot, BJ Penn out of the picture for the forseeable future, Kenny Florian having to climb back up the mountain, and many other “big names” in the lightweight division needing to gain some momentum, either of these two could parlay a couple more wins into a 2011 title shot.

Miller has only lost to Maynard in the UFC, and his only other MMA loss was to current lightweight champ Frankie Edgar. I had previously figured Miller to be yet another lightweight wrestler, and one who can be out-muscled, at that, but his recent fights have opened my eyes, especially when he confidently outstruck K-1 veteran Duane “Bang” Ludwig. Now, say what you will about Bang’s MMA career, but the guy is still a top-flight striker, and Miller’s performance against him was very impressive.

The problem is that Gleison Tibau really seems to fit the mold when it comes to the types of fighters that give Miller trouble. Tibau will bring a determined and stubborn approach that will help him to stick with his game plan and not get derailed by willingly getting into long striking exchanges with Miller. He has dangerous jiu-jitsu and the size and strength to bully Miller around a bit.

So, why do I still want to pick Miller? I don’t know…because I’m crazy, I guess. I think Miller’s one of the better lightweights in the UFC, and Tibau has had a history of not performing as well as expected in big fights. I’ll put my faith in Miller to have worked on his takedown defense and overall ground game, and pick him to win here.

Prediction: Miller by decision

Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira

Here’s another bout that could fast-track someone towards a 2011 lightweight title shot, as “The Ultimate Fighter” standout Escudero faces one of Brazil’s better prospects in Oliveira. Escudero is now four fights deep in his UFC career, and has not exactly re-invented the wheel in his three wins, but has stuck to his strengths and only lost to fellow lightweight contender Evan Dunham. Meanwhile, Oliveira is fresh out of Brazil’s competitive MMA scene, where he succeeded against many fighters who he matched up quite favorably against. He did submit Darren Elkins in his first UFC bout just one month ago.

He hasn’t faced anyone like Escudero, though, as wrestlers of Escudero’s ability just aren’t easy to find in Brazilian MMA shows. There are two main problems with this matchup: one is that Escudero can take Oliveira down any time he wants to, and the other being that Oliveira won’t necessarily see that as a bad thing.

Oliveira has a ton of confidence in his Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which is good, but won’t help him when he finds himself down two rounds to none and unable to latch on a fight-ending submission as the clock ticks down. Furthermore, Escudero will be the one to choose where the fight takes place, and he has better standup than Oliveira, who is largely still a one-dimensional fighter at this early point in his career. Oliveira will probably have a bright future, but his willingness to step in to fill a vacant slot due to injury will lead to his first career MMA loss.

Prediction: Escudero by decision

Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares

Marquardt may not “desperately” need a win here, but after being right in title contention before a loss to Chael Sonnen, he will need to win if he wants to challenge for the middleweight title anytime soon. In his way is Palhares (affectionately referred to on MMA forums as “Paul Harris”), who is mostly known for absolutely ripping guys to shreds whenever he gets ahold of a foot or leg.

Seriously, even though successful leg locks are fairly uncommon in professional MMA (especially at the higher levels of the sport), Palhares is about a 50-50 proposition to send somebody to reconstructive surgery any time he steps into the cage. With five wins via leg locks out of his 11 overall wins (four of those being the scariest submission in MMA, the heel hook), carelessness early in a fight with Palhares is a good way to ensure that you walk with crutches for a few months afterward.

Another trend that works much more in Marquardt’s favor is that Palhares tapers off very quickly if he doesn’t finish a fight in the first round. He doesn’t have great cardio, and his average takedowns will give Marquardt a chance to sprawl-and-brawl early on, wearing him down in the process. Marquardt is a far better striker than Palhares, who usually just relies on haymakers without any real set-up strikes when he’s not giving opponents fits on the mat.

Marquardt can avoid trouble if it hits the mat, and has the takedown defense to keep the fight standing for most of the bout. Meanwhile, his patience and technical striking will be a huge asset in this one. I’m tempted to go with a decision, but I’m hoping for a finish, so I’ll predict one, as well.

Prediction: Marquardt by KO/TKO

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Tags: Charles Oliveira, Cole Miller, Efrain Escudero, Gleison Tibau, Jim Miller, Nate Marquardt, Ross Pearson, Rousimar Palhares, UFC, UFC Fight Night 22