UFC Live 5 Preview

UFC Live 5 brings as solid a main card as we have seen all year, whether any titles are on the line or not. Many are saying that if you are not excited for this card, you must not like watching mixed martial arts, and it is hard to disagree with that statement. Cerrone-do Bronx? Ludwig-Sadollah? Miller-Henderson? Lytle-Hardy?!? Yes, please!

On a side note, you may have heard by now that although Dan Hardy’s back is against the wall after three straight losses, we may be saying goodbye to two fighters after tonight’s UFC Live 5 main event on Versus. As I write this preview, I will try to forget the fact that this will likely be Chris Lytle’s last fight, and instead will focus on what I expect to happen in the main card bouts tonight.

Oh, screw it. WHY, CHRIS, WHY?!!?! YOU CAN’T DO THIS TO US!!! YOU HAVE SO MANY MORE BONUSES LEFT TO WIN!!!

Okay, enough of that. Though I feel truly blindsided by this awful news, I will do my best to compose myself and try to continue in the way Lytle has taught me: with dignity and selflessness.*

*No guarantee on the dignity. I definitely wouldn’t count on the selflessness.

Donald Cerrone vs. Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira

And no, I don’t know what “do Bronx” means. But Google does! Apparently, Oliveira says that it means “the ghetto”, because when people would see him at the gym, they’d say “there’s the kid from the ghetto!” I don’t have a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but my black belt in Google Fu serves me well.

So anyhow, this is a great fight in that the two are very similar fighters: aggressive, with good submission skills and a penchant for offensive creativity. Now, fights between similar fighters don’t always work out well, as when two good jiu-jitsu players “balance each other out” (I think that’s how Joe Rogan likes to put it), or when two good wrestlers decide to play Amateur Kickboxing Hour instead of seeing who can take the other man down, but this should be an exception.

Since helping to give Efrain Escudero his walking papers in 2010, Oliveira has not had the best string of fights, losing to Jim Miller by decision and then having his fight with Nik Lentz be declared a no contest due to an illegal knee strike. I’d almost say that he’s the more dangerous fighter of the two on the mat, and what makes this fight interesting is that both men like to take risks and grapple aggressively, which can lead for openings that the other can exploit.

However, I think that the advantages I foresee for Cerrone in the standup and in wrestling will play more largely into the final result. Cerrone’s technique is a little better, he mixes up his attacks well and uses kicks competently, and I think he’ll get the best of most of the exchanges. In a fight between very evenly-matched fighters, that’s all the difference it will take as Cerrone wins a close decision.

Prediction: Cerrone by decision

Duane “Bang” Ludwig vs. Amir Sadollah

It’s hard for me to tell sometimes if I’m going with my heart more than my head on certain fights, and that may well be the case here. I have a soft spot for guys like Ludwig who were fighting back when dudes still wore skateboarding shoes to fight in King of the Cage events.

This fight will be a “do or die” moment for Ludwig, who always seemed like he simply didn’t have the wrestling to take advantage of his superb striking skills in mixed martial arts. However, after seeing Jim Miller outstrike him at UFC 108, it was clear that there are some chinks in Bang’s armor. Still, Miller uses a high-output, high-pressure style that Sadollah is unlikely to replicate, as Sadollah likes to take his time and pick apart opponents with a variety of strikes in a more analytical type of style.

Many are picking Sadollah, and I can see why. He’ll use his kicks to keep distance between the two of them (Bang definitely has the better hands) and he is likely already a better all-around grappler than Ludwig, too. However, I’m going to pick an upset here and say that Ludwig will turn back the clock with a KO or TKO win.

Prediction: Ludwig by KO/TKO

Ben Henderson vs. Jim Miller

Miller is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, but those days are quickly coming to an end with each new dominating performance. If he can put away Henderson tonight, it will be hard for even the most skeptical fan to deny that it’s about time he got a title shot. Meanwhile, Henderson looked good in his UFC debut against Mark Bocek, but is likely a couple of wins away from a title shot in a deep lightweight division. Of course, he definitely doesn’t want to take a step backward with a loss here.

This, as with the other three main card fights, has a lot of potential for being a great fight because both men like to set such a fast pace. However, the nod in that area goes to Miller, as you could see that Henderson had trouble keeping up with Anthony Pettis’ “riddim” through the last couple of rounds in their WEC bout. Still, this will be a three-rounder, so a lot of Miller’s advantage may not come into play.

Where Miller will reap some benefits is with his ever-improving (here’s lookin’ at you, Mike Goldberg) striking. A key part of his meteoric rise (okay, I’ll quit now) through the division has been the evolution of his striking and his ability to incorporate it flawlessly into his wrestling-based style. He ties his techniques together well (as does Henderson) and I expect him to get the better of most of the exchanges. I think he has more power in his strikes, too, though Henderson’s chin is very solid.

Will Henderson be able to take Miller down? I don’t think so. I think Miller is the better wrestler, even if Henderson is a bit slicker with submissions and has great submission defense, and he’ll be able to dictate not only the pace, but the location of the fight throughout. That’s enough for me to give Miller the nod in a great fight.

Prediction: Miller by decision

Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

Some great, if obvious, matchmaking here. While Hardy likely hasn’t turned the corner Lytle did some years ago where he realized that enjoying his fights was as important to him as winning them, he’s getting to that point. This is a great fight for both, as Hardy’s career will likely echo Lytle’s in many ways, though he doesn’t have the natural instinct for submissions that has really put Lytle over the top in his career.

It’s no shock to anyone who has visited the site for awhile that Lytle has long been one of my favorite fighters, but I think that he’s a good, objective choice to win this fight regardless of my allegiances. I like Hardy, too, and the thought that this fight could see him out of the UFC (at least for the time being) is a bummer…love him or hate him, I don’t see how you can deny that the UFC is better off with competitors like Hardy.

Why do I give Lytle the nod? He’s the better overall fighter. The question here is how much he will let his desire to entertain the fans override his desire to win the fight. This could end up being a very close stand-up battle, and I could see the difference being that Hardy is fighting for his livelihood and will be willing to mix in some takedown attempts as needed to win rounds. I don’t know that Lytle will be willing to do that, and it could cost him here as it did against Marcus Davis two years ago.

However, Lytle is so crafty with submissions that I don’t know how smart it would be for Hardy to take him down. Sure, Hardy is hard to submit because he’s extremely gutsy, but Lytle prefers chokes, anyway, and if Hardy doesn’t tap to one he will simply go limp. Hardy’s striking is actually a little more crisp than Lytle’s, especially since Lytle has decided in recent years to eschew straight punches in favor of throwing many looping punches and wide hooks. I know, I’m just giving reasons as to why Hardy will win, but I have faith in Lytle to put it all together and get the better of Hardy here. Besides, I can’t pick against him in his last fight.

Prediction: Lytle by decision

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Tags: Amir Sadollah, Ben Henderson, Charles Oliveira, Chris Lytle, Dan Hardy, Donald Cerrone, Duane Ludwig, Jim Miller, UFC, UFC Live 5