UFC Live: Sanchez vs. Kampmann Preview

Too much MMA is never a bad thing, and free fights just sweeten the deal even more. Tonight we’ll see whether Diego Sanchez can take another step toward revitalizing his career or whether Martin Kampmann can start the march back to title contention as the UFC brings another event to Versus. With two live fights from the prelims airing on Facebook, I’ll be previewing six fights for tonight and providing quick picks for the other four un-aired preliminary bouts. Let’s get to it.

Preliminary Bout Quick Picks

Todd Brown over Igor Pokrajac

How is Pokrajac still in the UFC? He’s lost 3 out of 4 fights in the normally cut-happy promotion.

Rousimar Palhares over Dave Branch

Also my pick for “most likely to end in a gruesome, injury-causing submission”.

Dongi Yang over Rob Kimmons

Yang is over his UFC jitters and should take a competitive bout against the veteran Kimmons.

Takeya Mizugaki over Reuben Duran

How is Mizugaki, a top ten bantamweight, missing out on being featured on both the main card and the Facebook prelims portions of the event?

Shane Roller over Thiago Tavares

Roller grapples his way to a decision win in what could either be a compelling mat battle or a bit of a snoozefest.

Facebook Prelims

Steve Cantwell vs. Cyrille Diabate

Cantwell’s name is misleading, as he does everything pretty well. He’s a competent, accurate striker, solid wrestler and has good submissions. Meanwhile, Diabate’s skill set provides a more obvious path to victory, as his mat game is definitely his weakness. However, he has outstanding kickboxing that provides a serious danger to foes.

Cantwell will have his moments, but I think that at some point Diabate will be able to catch Cantwell with something nasty and move in for the finish. This is a winnable fight for both fighters, though, and Cantwell simply has to grind his way to a late stoppage or decision if he wants to have his hand raised.

Prediction: Diabate by KO/TKO

Danny Castillo vs. Joe Stevenson

Castillo will debut in the UFC against tough veteran Stevenson in what should be an entertaining scrap. Both guys will want to move forward all fight long, while their particular strategies within that mindset will vary. Castillo will unleash powerful punches while Stevenson will use his striking to close the distance, wear out Castillo and take him down.

Castillo is far more likely to get a KO than Stevenson, but Stevenson is very good on the mat and will waste no time passing the guard and putting Castillo in bad positions should he get there. I think he will and he will take a step toward returning to his former status of being just on the outside of the elite lightweights in this one.

Prediction: Stevenson by submission

Main Card Preview

Brian Bowles vs. Damacio Page

We haven’t seen Bowles in awhile due to his propensity toward broken hands, but he brings his freaky similarity to Mark Wahlberg’s character in Boogie Nights to the UFC tonight against Page, who’s a tough character himself. Bowles is just plain better, but Page is as tough as nails and opportunistic on the mat.

I think Bowles will have similar success to what he had in their first meeting, as he’ll have the power to make Page uncomfortable and the ability to finish the fight standing up or on the mat. Page will rarely have breathing room in this one, as Bowles showcases his skills for a whole new set of fans.

Prediction: Bowles by submission

Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Weidman

Style-wise, the matchup is a fairly friendly one for Weidman, who is a pretty good grappler with great takedowns. However, Sakara has a huge edge in experience and any miscues on Weidman’s part will be harshly punished with Sakara’s more than capable standup.

One good aspect of striker vs. grappler matchups is that they provide a rather clear path to victory for each man. Weidman was likely salivating when he watched tape of many of Sakara’s mat misadventures, but Sakara has improved and the bright lights of the UFC will provide another opponent for Weidman to contend with, too. Weidman will unquestionably be better in the long run, but Sakara’s experience edge will be too much here.

Prediction: Sakara by KO/TKO

CB Dolloway vs. Mark Munoz

I’m always intrigued by matchups between fighters with similar styles, particularly when it isn’t immediately clear which fighter is superior in that specific area. Therefore, this bout should be interesting and might even cross over into “entertaining”, as well.

Both have been your typical crossover athletes from college wrestling to MMA, and have had their share of respective successes while not adding the dynamic elements to their games that someone like Ryan Bader has. Still, there is probably something to be said for Munoz’s power advantage, even if he’s a little sloppy with his striking. I also expect Munoz to be stronger, though Dolloway may have more refined skills on the mat. I’m not sure that will mean much if Dolloway is on his back, though, and while much of this fight will take place standing or in the clinch, I think Munoz will get more of those fight-sealing takedowns.

Prediction: Munoz by decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez

These two have both had their time as contenders in the welterweight division, and Sanchez memorably challenged BJ Penn for the lightweight title as well, though that obviously didn’t go so well for him. Since then, Sanchez has rebounded nicely and apparently changed his life while attempting to get back on track in the division he made his name in.

Kampmann will enjoy a clear advantage while standing; Sanchez has capable striking but has never expanded beyond the basics, while Kampmann will use a variety of weapons to keep Sanchez guessing (and hurting). If Sanchez gets the fight to the mat, Kampmann will be in trouble but should be able to survive. He won’t submit Sanchez by any means, but Sanchez will control him and land shots consistently. I just think Kampmann will be able to keep Sanchez off guard and fend off his takedowns tonight.

Prediction: Kampmann by decision

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