UFC on Fox 2 Preview

The second UFC show to air on Fox feels more like the first, as the inaugural appearance only featured a one-minute scrap between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos. This event, while featuring just three live fights instead of the five we are accustomed to, will hopefully be much more like your usual UFC experience. Let’s hope for more fighting and less “analysis” this time, eh?

Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

This is an interesting bout featuring a solid prospect in Weidman. Maia used to be a feared grappler, but has seemingly lost his mojo since he got a title shot against Anderson Silva and his last four wins have come through (mostly underwhelming) decisions. What I wonder here is whether Weidman will attempt to outstrike Maia or dangerously engage him where he is strongest: on the mat?

Weidman has the wrestling skills to take down Maia, though I doubt the inverse is true. In my opinion, Maia will be forced to fight the type of fight that Weidman wants because of this. If Maia can outstrike Weidman, he can not only force Weidman to fight him on the mat, but he’ll be obviously winning the fight in the judges’ eyes, as well. Eventually, I think that Weidman will take the fight to the mat, though. Either his confidence will swell after getting through a round or two unscathed or he will want to more definitively win rounds. Who knows; maybe he’ll shoot right off the bat, though I wouldn’t advise it.

In the past I would have expected Maia to win this one if it went to the mat. It wouldn’t even be a debate for me. However, Maia’s approach has been much more cautious and methodical of late, and I’m not even sure that he would submit Weidman if he did play into Maia’s game. On top of that, I think Weidman’s striking is improving very quickly and he will likely get the better of that part of the fight, too. This is a bad style matchup for Maia and will end in a loss, unless he can show some of the aggressive jiu-jitsu we saw from him in the past.

Prediction: Weidman by decision

Michael Bisping vs. Chael Sonnen

Sonnen thinks this should be the main event, and I concur. Another thing that I agree about is that he will beat Michael Bisping. Don’t skip to the next fight just yet, though! Don’t you want to hear why?

Well, maybe not, because quite frankly, it’s not that complicated. Sonnen has no qualms about admitting what he’s going to do when he fights someone like Bisping, or anyone else for that matter. He flat out admits that he’s going to take his opponents down and try to pound them. He also admits that he doesn’t care whether people find it particular entertaining, because his job is to win, first and foremost.

It’s strange that such an obvious approach would not be the norm in this sport, but that’s the way things are. Fighters either believe or pretend to believe that their job is to entertain first and to win second. Again, Sonnen is not that type and he will doggedly pursue takedowns as long as the fight continues.

People are talking about what Bisping has to do in his standup, but I don’t think it’s a particularly interesting subject. Of course he has to watch his range, snap off straight punches and be ready to sprawl at a moment’s notice. The thing is, this fight will hit the mat and that’s when the outcome will be decided.

Bisping is a hard cat to hold down; that much is for sure. While his submission game is pretty decent, it’s his ability to stand back up that has allowed him to succeed in many of his fights. However, Sonnen is on another level entirely from most other grapplers in the middleweight class, and he will be up to the task of taking Bisping down and keeping him there. That will guarantee him at least a decision win, though I’ll be optimistic and predict a late TKO after Sonnen wears Bisping down.

Prediction: Sonnen by KO/TKO

Phil Davis vs. Rashad Evans

I was surprised that this was named the main event of such an important show and not, say, the co-main event of a pay-per-view or something. Sure, it’s two big names and it is an intriguing fight, but it is also a bout for which the potential for a “dud” is very, very high. Chances are this will not be the type of fight that you would choose to show to someone who has never seen MMA before. Yet, that’s what the UFC is doing.

I’m always interested to see two high-level wrestlers go at it, because it’s intriguing to find out who can nullify the other’s ability. Less interesting, though, is the possibility that neither will want to attempt takedowns, and the threat of takedowns from the other man will lead to stilted, conservative standup. Hopefully, that’s not what we see here.

If there’s a chance of this bout being a good one, it’s that Evans should be able to tool Davis a bit in the standup. If he is aggressive and is putting a beating on Davis, it will force Davis to take the fight to the mat, which will lead to this bout being more than a sparring match between a couple of wrestlers. Of course, if Evans is conservative, as he often is, Davis may be content to move around with him, throwing the occasional strike and leading to a rather dull fight. The thing is, either way I think that Evans wins.

Prediction: Evans by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley
Follow Jon Hartley on Twitter

Tags: Chael Sonnen, Chris Weidman, Demian Maia, Michael Bisping, Phil Davis, Rashad Evans, UFC, UFC on Fox 2