UFC on Versus 2 Main Card: Preview and Picks

When I look at the main card fights for the second live UFC event to air on Versus, the first thing I think is, “Griffin vs. Gomi isn’t the main event? Really?!?” No, it isn’t, which indicates that a lot of people have been drinking the Kool-Aid hard when it comes to Jon Jones. Sure, he deserves the attention as a top prospect, but Griffin is a borderline-top ten lightweight, while Gomi was the top dog in the division at one point. Enough about what fights should be where, though…on with the picks!

Tyson Griffin vs. Takanori Gomi

Frankie Edgar, Sean Sherk and Evan Dunham. Besides having beaten Tyson Griffin, what those three have in common is a good wrestling base mixed with solid, fundamental boxing. Believe me when I say that this is what it takes to beat Griffin, and I’m not sure that Gomi still has the goods. At the peril of tipping my hand just three sentences in to my preview for this fight, let’s establish one of the worst-kept secrets in MMA: Gomi’s not what he used to be.

Of course, the UFC has done him no favors by welcoming him into the fold with Kenny Florian and now, Griffin. While the Florian fight wasn’t quite a foregone conclusion before Florian’s smart strategy of mixing kicks and well-timed takedowns made us all wonder how Gomi could ever win that fight, this matchup just looks ugly for Gomi, even on paper.

Gomi has always been a power puncher, and thus relies on getting up close and personal to ply his trade. The problem is that Griffin will benefit even more from the close proximity that Gomi requires, as he will be able to overcome his lack of reach while inside, as well as take Gomi down at will. I think Gomi still has plenty of power and is dangerous because of it, but Griffin is pretty fundamentally sound and will likely use a steady mix of leg kicks and crisp punches, especially after watching Florian-Gomi. It’s sad to say, but I think Gomi may end up leaving the UFC without so much as a win, unless they keep him around for one last shot following this one (and hopefully, some friendlier matchmaking).

Prediction: Griffin by decision

John Howard vs. Jake Ellenberger

A good fight on paper may turn out to be somewhat anticlimactic in reality as Howard takes on Ellenberger. Howard is undefeated in four UFC fights (14-4 overall), but a closer look reveals that two of his wins come by split decision and no one that he’s faced has had the wrestling skills of Ellenberger. Ellenberger was very impressive in his second round TKO of Mike Pyle, and will undoubtedly be hungry to be the first fighter to defeat Howard in the Octagon.

Howard has several things that Ellenberger does not: namely, quickness and jaw-shattering power. However, Ellenberger does not make a practice of becoming an easy target, and if Howard is too eager to plant his feet to throw a big punch, he will quickly end up on his back. From the top position, Ellenberger is patient and fundamentally-sound, while Howard is easily at his worst while on his back. Even if Howard manages to find himself on top via a scramble, he tends to make mistakes while going for broke from inside an opponent’s guard, which would conceivably allow Ellenberger to sweep or get back to his feet. Unless Howard can pull off an explosive finish, this could be a long, anticlimactic decision win for Ellenberger.

Prediction: Ellenberger by decision

Yushin Okami vs. Mark Munoz

It can be easy to over-simplify an MMA matchup and fall victim to a faulty prediction as a result. Hey, I’ve fallen for that trap many times, often predicting the “better wrestler” to come through in a fight like Okami-Munoz. The problem is that the better wrestler is not always the better wrestler.

What I mean is though Okami can’t contend with Munoz’s credentials in amateur wrestling, he doesn’t need to. If Georges St. Pierre has taught us anything, it’s that blending your wrestling skills (and tweaking them, when needed) for MMA is what really counts, and Okami has been doing that en route to wins since long before Munoz made his professional debut. Meanwhile, Munoz has not been able to put it all together, as he seems to be confused whether to take advantage of his admittedly impressive power by swinging for the fences, or rely on his bread and butter by constantly shooting for takedowns.

The problem is that Okami is no slouch when it comes to grappling, and will make Munoz work hard even if he ends up on his back. In that case, I don’t expect Munoz to be able to do much as Okami will continue to push the pace by challenging Munoz with submissions, tying him up and getting back to his feet, depending on the situation. Meanwhile, when the two are standing, Munoz will show why he has some of the ugliest standup technique this side of Matt Hamill, while Okami’s underwhelming, yet effective striking will allow him to score points and keep his opponent off balance. Munoz is a good enough fighter, but will need some additional work before putting away a legitimate contender like Okami.

Prediction: Okami by decision

Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

At first sight, this looks like a good challenge for Jones: a veteran fighter who recently has had a career resurgence and has good enough wrestling skills to test the up-and-coming prospect. However, a closer look gives a much different perspective of this bout.

Matyushenko has never been an elite wrestler, and while he has won eleven of his last twelve, actually watching the fights reveals that not much has changed about the veteran combatant. He’s still not going to blow you away with anything he does, though it’s true that he does know how to use his experience to get an edge, and he will take advantage of any silly mistakes an opponent makes.

Still, it won’t be enough against a pure athlete the caliber of Jones, who will be able to fend off Matyushenko’s takedown attempts via athleticism and strength alone. Furthermore, once Jones has defended the initial shot, Matyushenko will be forced to abandon his takedown attempt or go high into the clinch, where Jones is at his strongest. There, Jones can muscle around the veteran and use his ridiculous sense of balance and timing to toss Matyushenko to the mat, or at least keep him off balance and working hard. I don’t expect much of this fight to take place at striking range, as Matyushenko will keep the pressure on, but Jones is much better in that area, too. Matyushenko is a tough guy, but Jones is just too explosive and too good.

Prediction: Jones by KO/TKO

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Tags: Jake Ellenberger, John Howard, Jon Jones, Takanori Gomi, Tyson Griffin, UFC, UFC on Versus 2, Vladimir Matyushenko, Yushin Okami