UFC on Versus Preview and Picks

For the first time, the UFC will present a fight card tonight on Versus, which is usually reserved for WEC events. If the UFC’s goal is to alert its many fans that the channel actually does exist, a very good card full of potential title contenders and fight of the year candidates should do so.

As usual, I’ll be going through each main card bout, providing some background, the rationale for my prediction, and the prediction itself. Tonight’s fights should be as competitive and hard to predict as they will be exciting, so don’t be putting money up on these picks, my friends.

James Irvin vs. Alessio Sakara

Sadly, Irvin may be now best known for his memorable loss to Anderson Silva, where a caught kick and counter-punch, along with several punches to his head on the ground, left the fearsome fighter in a fetal position.  While losing to Silva is nothing to be ashamed of, the fact that injuries have kept Irvin from competing in the 20 months since makes it hard for him to give fans a reminder of why he was one of the most exciting fighters in the light heavyweight division.

Now, Irvin has decided for some reason to test out the waters at middleweight, despite appearing to be very big even for a light heavyweight.  He faces Sakara, who has fought in the UFC for four years now, despite having only just now put together a two-fight winning streak in the promotion, and boasting just a 5-4 overall record during the span.

After watching the weigh-ins and seeing that Irvin not only looked absolutely drained, but actually gaunt (check out those sunken cheeks!), I’m tempted to pick Sakara.  This is just because it looks like Irvin has had a rough cut and may be prone to gassing out or just not fighting like himself.  However, Irvin is just a better fighter than Sakara, as his record shows.  Both fighters have heavy strikes and neither has the strongest chin, so someone will be knocked out.  I believe Irvin will be standing at the fight’s conclusion.

Prediction: Irvin by KO/TKO

Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello

People are selling Kongo short now, after his stunning loss to Frank Mir.  It wasn’t stunning at all that Mir tapped out Kongo, but Mir knocking Kongo down with punches to put himself in that position definitely was.  However, I look at that more as a testament to Mir’s ability and that “anything can happen with heavyweights throwing punches” than anything else.

Meanwhile, Buentello, who has had a long and accomplished career based on knocking very tough men unconscious, now has to face someone who is a more complete striker than he is.  Kongo will utilize a greater range of striking techniques, and despite the Mir fight, I believe he has the chin and defense to stay out of serious trouble against the veteran fighter.  Furthermore, I give an edge to Kongo because I think he can take the fight to the ground, and even possibly finish it there.  On a card full of exciting fights and knock-down-drag-out brawl possibilities, this stands out for sure.

Prediction: Kongo by KO/TKO

Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

The Jones-Vera bout is not the only fight between the current “next big thing” and the former one within a division.  This bout also fits that mold quite nicely, as Gonzaga’s mix of devastating striking power and world championship caliber jiu jitsu once made him one of the biggest young stars in the heavyweight division.  Of course, Gonzaga earned his title shot against then-champion Randy Couture, and the crusty old veteran did as he always does, dispatching his young challenger in three rounds.

Since then, Gonzaga has been TKO’ed by Shane Carwin and Fabricio Werdum, though he has also won three bouts in his last four, all by submission or knockout.  Meanwhile, dos Santos has just one loss in his young MMA career and is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC, with all of his wins coming by way of punching his opponents silly.

Junior dos Santos would seem to be the better athlete, at least in terms of explosiveness, and boasts a decent ground game himself, though we haven’t seen it yet in the UFC.  However, Gonzaga is a large, strong man who has ridiculously well-rounded skills and has never lost to a heavyweight who wasn’t in the top ten in the division.

I think this fight could end at any minute, and I’m tempted to do what many are doing and pick dos Santos.  However, I’ve always thought that if Gonzaga could put it all together, he has the skills to be a championship caliber fighter in the UFC, and I think that he could win this fight narrowly, or through a late mistake by dos Santos.

Prediction: Gonzaga by submission

Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones

This has the makings of an excellent fight, though it may turn out to just be an interesting one, instead.  What I mean is that depending on Jones’ strategy and how well composed the two fighters are, this could become less about fast-twitch muscle fibers and more about the “human chess match” that fans both claim to love and love to boo all at the same time.

My first instinct was to pick Vera in this fight.  I think he has a more well-rounded overall skill set than Jones, and I don’t think Jones has fought anyone near Vera’s ability level, though Stephan Bonnar was certainly a tough test for a fighter of Jones’ experience level at the time.  Still, the cliche of “styles make fights” holds as true as always here, and that’s the part that gives me pause.

Vera, despite his bone-cracking kicks and competent jiu-jitsu, tends to allow his opponents to dictate the fight.  We all saw when Tim Sylvia and Randy Couture simply pinned Vera against the cage for three rounds apiece en route to unanimous decision victories, and Vera seemed to have no answer for either.  If testosterone and adrenaline rules the day, Jones may be tempted to strike with Vera, and that will be his undoing for sure.  However, Jones is a very composed and intelligent young man, and I believe he will work off of Couture’s strategy, controlling and frustrating Vera for the win.

Prediction: Jones by decision

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Tags: Alessio Sakara, Brandon Vera, Cheick Kongo, Gabriel Gonzaga, James Irvin, Jon Jones, Junior Dos Santos, Paul Buentello, UFC, UFC on Versus