WEC 48 Preview and Picks
Just a few hours from now, we will find out how the WEC will fare in its first pay-per-view under the Zuffa umbrella. While we won’t know buyrates right away, we will at least fall asleep tonight knowing who holds the featherweight title, as well as the immediate fates of other big-name WEC stars like Ben Henderson, Donald Cerrone, and Mike Brown. Here are my picks for the fights happening on the main card tonight:
Antonio Banuelos vs. Scott Jorgensen
Antonio Banuelos took a previous fight between these two nearly a year ago, winning via split decision. However, much appears to have changed since then. Scott Jorgensen has added some good striking from the clinch and further showed his ability to squeeze the life out of foes with powerful (and painful-looking) guillotine chokes.
I am not so much down on Banuelos as I am just very impressed with Jorgensen, who has been an absolute monster of late. I know that as a “journalist”, I should not be swayed by the aesthetics of Jorgensen’s submission win over Chad George, but if I may make an outdated “Friday” reference, “daaaaayyyyyummmn!” Jorgensen’s guillotine choke against George, where he lifted his helpless foe off the ground before dropping him to fall almost lifelessly to the mat after the tap was absolutely brutal.
I think Jorgensen’s overall nastiness will be a big factor in this fight, as he will enter the cage with a chip on his shoulder, as silly and cliché as it may sound. He will not fight with quite as measured a pace as he did in their last meeting, where Banuelos stifled Jorgensen with dirty boxing. Jorgensen takes this one in a competitive fight, though not as close as the last one.
Prediction: Jorgensen by decision
Shane Roller vs. Anthony Njokuani
These men have more in common than you might think, though Njokuani is a lean, six foot tall lightweight with a rangy striking style and Roller is a powerful wrestler who loves to throw wild punches. For instance, both men are on winning streaks, both of which also began immediately following TKO losses to Ben Henderson.
On paper, it would look to be Roller’s fight to lose. With his wrestling credential, shouldn’t he be able to take Njokuani down at will and avoid his opponent’s jabs, kicks and clinch strikes?
The problem is, Roller may not be content to do that. In fact, I’m guessing he won’t. Instead, he will stand with Njokuani and be content for awhile to drop his hands and throw huge punches, which is why I’m giving Njokuani the nod here. Roller’s striking is a bit too sloppy, particularly with regard to his defense, and it will cost him here.
Prediction: Njokuani by KO/TKO
Mike Brown vs. Manny Gamburyan
Brown is attempting to get back to title contention with a win over Gamburyan, who was a finalist at “The Ultimate Fighter 5″, but had mixed results at lightweight before transitioning to 145 pounds. In the WEC, he has had nothing but success so far, as he is 2-0 with wins over John Franchi and Leonard Garcia.
I don’t know that Gamburyan will have anything for Brown, however. In the standup realm, Gamburyan will constantly be in danger of being the recipient of a killshot from the hard-hitting former featherweight champion. Meanwhile, Gamburyan may not be able to take down Brown with much success, given his struggles against Leonard Garcia in that area. Gamburyan will have to be careful with closing the distance, too, because it puts him right in Brown’s wheelhouse and increases the likelihood of a concussive result to end the fight.
Brown is a superb athlete and has power in both hands, and he will constantly be putting his opponent in danger in this bout. Gamburyan is going to be forced to survive while picking his shots (literally) when it comes to takedown attempts. It’s not a high-percentage strategy for Gamburyan, but it is truly the only one he’s got. Brown will win this one and get a title shot against the winner of Aldo/Faber for sure.
Prediction: Brown by KO/TKO
Ben Henderson vs. Donald Cerrone
No matter what your feelings are about the WEC going to a pay-per-view business model, there is no way that any MMA fan should not be excited about this fight. The first installment was a definite fight of the year candidate (“winner” for many), featuring a ridiculous string of gutsy submission escapes by Henderson and a frenetic pace for both fighters throughout.
While no one can claim to know exactly how this rematch will pan out, I don’t think that either fighter has changed dramatically since their first meeting. That’s not a knock on either fighter; both have definitely improved, but not in ways that will make this look like a completely different fight from the first. We will still undoubtedly see Cerrone get some good submission opportunities, and Henderson’s wrestling will be just as sharp as before. I also would think that we will see some rather evenly-waged standup action between the two, but I think this one will be decided on the mat.
I was amazed with Henderson’s ability to continue through some very deep submission attempts by Cerrone in their last bout. This time, I think Henderson will play with fire a bit too much again and find himself stuck in a moment that he can’t get out of.
Okay, I apologize for the U2 reference. I couldn’t help it.
Prediction: Cerrone by submission
Jose Aldo vs. Urijah Faber
The idea of “invincibility” in MMA is a funny thing. Beside the fact that it’s simply a crazy concept in the first place, it seems that one win can ascend the victorious fighter to such a status, while a simple loss can strip the loser of their previously-held super powers a la “Superman 2″. Look no further than the recent history of Urijah Faber, who was deemed as unbeatable before getting rocked by a huge counter punch off of an ill-advised elbow strike in their first bout.
In their rematch, no one thought Faber could beat Brown. Faber did not beat him, anyway, though he did lose a competitive five-round fight in which he fought the majority of those rounds without the ability to throw punches. Enter Jose Aldo, who destroyed Brown in a manner that was admittedly hard to fathom before seeing it live. Now, it’s Aldo that is “unbeatable”, as Faber enters this fight as the underdog, which would have been hard to believe just a couple of years ago.
There are a couple of things working against Faber here, though. One is that Faber tends to go with whatever pops into his head at any given time. He has paid for it in the past, as we saw in the first Brown fight, but it hasn’t kept him from continuing down that rather dangerous path. The problem is that Aldo is the kind of athlete and fighter who will capitalize on anything silly his opponent decides to try.
Furthermore, Faber will have to fight a pretty much mistake free fight for the duration of five rounds, as Aldo will always be a threat to finish him with a well-placed strike. While Faber is a dangerous foe himself, he doesn’t have the explosive finishing capabilities that Aldo sports in regards to striking. Faber will also have to be careful about his takedown attempts, which will bring him right into the “danger zone” of one of the “Top Guns” in all of mixed martial arts.
Okay, seriously, I’ll stop now. Let me make this short. I like Faber, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he won. But I’m going to listen to my head this time and say Aldo, because he can turn any moment of the fight into the last for his legendary opponent.
Prediction: Aldo by KO/TKO
Tags: Ben Henderson, Donald Cerrone, Jose Aldo, Manny Gamburyan, Mike Brown, Scott Jorgensen, Urijah Faber, WEC, WEC 48
