WEC 52 Preview and Picks

Tonight’s WEC event is notable not just because its one of the last to ever take place, but also because of the sheer number of quality fighters participating. In the main card, there are five top ten fighters in either the bantamweight or featherweight division in action, including former featherweight champ-turned bantamweight Urijah Faber, who faces Takeya Mizugaki and recent featherweight title contender Joseph Benavidez, who will take on Wagnney Fabiano.

Damacio Page vs. Demetrious Johnson

Page fights with a very aggressive mentality, and while winging hard punches without much thought to absorbing counter shots may get him in trouble one day, it likely won’t be a problem against the undersized Demetrious Johnson.

Similarly, Page will be able to use his size and grappling to get Johnson to the mat if he wants to, which will remain to be seen. Johnson is not a bad fighter by any means and has a 1-1 WEC record so far, but he will have a hard time overcoming the experience and strength of Page. I think Page will wear down a game, but outgunned Johnson, leading to a late stoppage.

Prediction: Page by KO/TKO

Erik Koch vs. Francisco Rivera

Rivera is really up against it in this one: not only does he debut against someone who already has a 2-1 WEC record in Koch, but he also took the fight on short notice, which is always a bad omen in this sport.

Rivera will likely be the better fighter when the bout is standing, but Koch should be smart enough to look for consistent takedowns, too. I think the pace will be set at a pretty high rate and both fighters will have their moments, but ultimately Koch’s takedowns and ground work will earn him a decision victory.

Prediction: Koch by decision

Joseph Benavidez vs. Wagnney Fabiano

Benavidez has now lost two times to bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, so he finds himself in no man’s land to a certain extent. He’ll face Fabiano, a top ten fighter himself who poses plenty of challenges both standing and on the mat.

Most seem to believe that Benavidez, who is a quicker fighter, will push the pace throughout the fight. As a former featherweight, though, I expect Fabiano to bring a strength advantage and a bit of a power edge, as well. Benavidez has tried to get into Fabiano’s head, predicting that Fabiano would try to fight a “boring” fight, maybe because he wants Fabiano to play into his plans. However, I give Fabiano a slight edge due to his ability to control and execute his game plan, which is enough for me to call for the upset here.

Prediction: Fabiano by decision

Chad Mendes vs. Javier Vasquez

Mendes has done well in the WEC so far, and training partners with high profiles themselves (such as Urijah Faber) have vouched for his ability and quick improvement in the sport. As a successful NCAA wrestler who was a finalist during his senior year, Mendes has worked to round out his game, but his wrestling provides him with his biggest weapon.

This puts this fight in classic “wrestling vs. jiu-jitsu” territory, which poses all of the usual questions. Mendes does have a bit of a tactical advantage, because he doesn’t have to allow the fight to hit the mat unless he feels that Vazquez is giving him more than he can handle standing up. I don’t know that I see that happening, as I think it’s more likely that Mendes will simply shoot for takedowns to put the exclamation point on rounds in order to ensure that he wins them.

I do think that Vazquez will be happy to be on the mat with Mendes, whether he’s on top or not. From his back, he’ll threaten Mendes at any point that Mendes gets a little lazy or complacent. I think Mendes will let up a bit later on, and Vazquez will pull off a sudden submission to get the win.

Prediction: Vazquez by submission

Urijah Faber vs.Takeya Mizugaki

This is a great fight, pitting Faber against a legitimate top-level bantamweight in his first fight since dropping down to the weight class. Anyone who saw Mizugaki’s fight with Miguel Torres knows that Mizugaki is an absolute warrior who will never let up even a bit.

Faber has always been known to push the pace in any of his fights, which won’t bother Mizugaki even a little bit. Mizugaki is completely at home when the fight becomes a war, and Faber will be more than happy to deliver just that. With the adrenaline of returning to the WEC in a new weight class, expect a quick start to this one.

Ultimately, I think that Faber would win a three-round bout by decision if it was to be contested entirely standing up. However, Faber’s wrestling will wear down Mizugaki, making the fight more and more decisive as it goes on. I’ll still give Mizugaki the benefit of the doubt when it comes to surviving for the whole fifteen minutes, but there will be no question who wins this one.

Prediction: Faber by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

In a strictly standup fight,

Tags: Damacio Page, Demetrious Johnson, Joseph Benavidez, Takeya Mizugaki, Urijah Faber, Wagnney Fabiano, WEC, WEC 52