What’s Left for Cro Cop, Nog and Silva?

In my UFC 110 Parting Shots column, I mentioned that there was a lot to say about the futures of three former Pride Fighting Championships superstars, all of whom now face difficult roads back to glory: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and Wanderlei Silva.  All three of these fighters were legends in Pride’s heyday, and all three face big questions when considering whether they will ever be in title contention again. 

Cro Cop, Nog and Silva are not just linked because they were superstars in Japan, but also because all have their skeptics who believe that their respective eras of dominance are over.  All three have had various fans, writers and even other fighters wonder aloud whether they should hang ‘em up for good sooner rather than later.  Here are my thoughts on what I think we can expect for the three as their careers move forward.

Cro Cop: Has he lost his will?

Cro Cop, on paper at least, would seem to be the least likely to be done as a relevant fighter at the top of his division.  Cro Cop has not taken the kind of abuse that Nogueira and Silva have, and has not had the frequency of devastating knockout losses that the other two have in recent years, either.  However, his future is murkier than that of his counterparts, because he doesn’t seem fully committed to fighting anymore.

When you watch Cro Cop’s UFC fights- with the possible exceptions of his first fight (against Eddie Sanchez) and his latest fight (against Anthony Perosh)- you can immediately see the difference between this version and the Cro Cop we saw do so well in Pride.  Instead of stalking opponents before suddenly throwing destructive, pinpoint strikes, Cro Cop often looks overwhelmed, timid or just plain bored.  Cro Cop’s dilemma is an interesting one because it appears to be almost entirely mental.

Perhaps getting a taste of his own medicine against Gabriel Gonzaga made Cro Cop gunshy.  It’s hard to say, but that’s his only truly devastating loss in recent years, at least in terms of the finish itself.  Against Junior dos Santos, Cro Cop just didn’t appear to want to be in there, and he backed away all fight long with very few attempts to counter dos Santos’ aggressiveness.

Maybe Cro Cop has trouble with fighting such larger opponents in an enclosed cage?  In that case, though, why not cut to light heavyweight?  Instead, he stubbornly dismisses any such ideas and continues to fight against men that are generally much larger than he is.  Some exceptions include Perosh, as well as Cro Cop’s next opponent (at UFC 115), Patrick Barry.

I don’t know if they are doing this on purpose, but I think this is the perfect strategy for Cro Cop at this point.  I would have Cro Cop fight guys like Barry exclusively- smaller heavyweights, or even big light heavyweights.  Other great fights would include Brandon Vera and Chuck Liddell, which absolutely has to happen if both win their next fights.  Randy Couture wouldn’t be the best style matchup, but it would be fun to see.

I don’t think Cro Cop has a heavyweight title in his future, because he just does not seem to have the determination to be a top level fighter anymore.  Make no mistake, he would need every ounce of determination to reign in a division filled with great wrestlers that outweigh him by 50 pounds or more on fight night.  If I was Joe Silva, I’d book Cro Cop in special fights against smaller, striking based heavyweights (and bigger light heavyweights) exclusively, until he could string a few wins together and prove that his heart is back in it.

Nogueira: Stuck in the Middle

Nogueira’s future is a tricky one to assess.  In theory, this division should be one that he can compete in without a problem.  The middle level is filled with strikers that lack grappling skills, like Cheick Kongo, Antoni Hardonk and Barry.  At the upper echelon, you have very good wrestlers who do not have a portion of the jiu-jitsu savvy that Minotauro has shown throughout his career.  While they are big and strong, fighters like Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez should have no answer for Nogueira’s submission prowess.  Their biggest strengths (their wrestling) should put them right where Nogueira is most dangerous- on the mat.

The problem is that Nogueira’s chin is coming into question for the first time in his career.  The man who took a Cro Cop kick in the mush and submitted him a few minutes later, and also who took hellacious ground and pound from Fedor Emelianenko without succumbing to a knockout or referee stoppage has been put away two out of his last three fights. 

This makes it hard to have a lot of faith in Nogueira.  There simply is no way that he will be able to win the title without going through the likes of Lesnar, Carwin, Velasquez or Mir, all of whom are much bigger than Nog and have power in their hands to spare.  Sure, none of these guys (with the possible exception of Mir) will want to chill out in Nogueira’s guard, but if they can outstrike Nog and possibly knock him out, why will they need to?

Nog may have gotten into some bad habits over the years with his striking because he always knew he could take big shots and keep going.  I have always thought that having a granite chin leads to a lot of problems, as you can see with guys like Liddell, Nogueira or even Chris Leben- all of whom got far too accustomed to stopping punches with their faces, since they felt they couldn’t be hurt by them.  The problem is, anyone can be knocked out, and when you play those games, it’s a matter of time before it all catches up to you.

Can Nogueira polish up his striking enough to keep those guys honest at this point in his career?  Who knows?  For now, it seems like Nogueira is in a tier all by himself, above the majority of the heavyweight division but just below the champ and his three biggest challengers.  I won’t say that Nog could never win a title again- if the right guy was holding the title and it was a positive matchup, it could surely happen.  However, Nog has already been knocked out by two of the four top heavyweights in the division, and he’ll have to put a lot of work in- and possibly race against the clock- to add another title to his legacy.  Still, who could count Nog out?  I surely won’t.

Silva: A New Beginning?

I think we’ve seen what Wanderlei Silva is trying to do to resurrect his career: he is taking a more measured approach to his fights and saving his customary aggressiveness for only certain moments throughout the fight.  We saw it against Rich Franklin, when Silva would regularly pounce on him and try to get the finish, and we saw it against Michael Bisping, where Silva would charge forward at the end of every round, going for broke.

I would say I’m cautiously optimistic about this new approach.  What I don’t like is that when Silva is being patient, he’s almost too patient.  He gave away any chance to win round one against Bisping based on his inactivity alone.  It’s not like Bisping did anything amazing to win the round, he was just more active and landed more shots.  Silva can get away with it if he wins rounds two and three, but after the close loss to Franklin, you would think he’d be a bit more hesitant to essentially give rounds away.

Still, Silva did allay some fears during the Bisping fight.  First of all, he looked comfortable at 185 pounds, having shed some excess mass over the last several months.  This was undoubtedly a cause for relief for Wandy’s supporters, as he looked dehydrated and just plain worn out times at 195 against Franklin.  His cardio was better than usual and he seems like a good fit for the division.  Perhaps his tentativeness will even out a bit as he continues.

I think Silva’s prospects are better than Nogueira’s or Cro Cop’s, but not necessarily because I think he has “more in the tank” or is a much better fighter.  It has more to do with his division.  Few fighters at middleweight have the power to take advantage of Silva’s tendency to end up laying on the canvas over recent years, and there are a lot less dangerous strikers for Silva to face at middleweight than at light heavyweight.

While fighters like Chael Sonnen and the champion, Anderson Silva present bad matchups, there are a lot of fighters that I think Silva matches up pretty well with, like Demian Maia, Nate Marquardt or even Vitor Belfort.  However, with Anderson Silva apparently deciding not to call it a career after all when his current contract ends, it’s unlikely that the Axe Murderer- or anyone else not named “Anderson Silva”- will be wearing the belt anytime soon. 

I think that Wanderlei will be relevant in the middleweight division for awhile to come, but whether he’ll ever hold the belt again all depends on what matchups present themselves.  At some point, we’ll see Anderson vs. Wanderlei; I’m almost sure of it.  At that point, Wanderlei will have a chance to put an exclamation point on his career, if he can put together a vintage performance.

So, none of these guys are done for just yet.  Two of the three may even fight for a championship once again someday.  Sure, their legacies may already be secure, but it’s hard not to root for one more moment of glory for three of Pride’s greatest competitors.

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Tags: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic, Pride, UFC, Wanderlei Silva