On a side note, you may have heard by now that although Dan Hardy’s back is against the wall after three straight losses, we may be saying goodbye to two fighters after tonight’s UFC Live 5 main event on Versus. As I write this preview, I will try to forget the fact that this will likely be Chris Lytle’s last fight, and instead will focus on what I expect to happen in the main card bouts tonight.

Oh, screw it. WHY, CHRIS, WHY?!!?! YOU CAN’T DO THIS TO US!!! YOU HAVE SO MANY MORE BONUSES LEFT TO WIN!!!

Okay, enough of that. Though I feel truly blindsided by this awful news, I will do my best to compose myself and try to continue in the way Lytle has taught me: with dignity and selflessness.*

*No guarantee on the dignity. I definitely wouldn’t count on the selflessness.

Donald Cerrone vs. Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira

And no, I don’t know what “do Bronx” means. But Google does! Apparently, Oliveira says that it means “the ghetto”, because when people would see him at the gym, they’d say “there’s the kid from the ghetto!” I don’t have a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but my black belt in Google Fu serves me well.

So anyhow, this is a great fight in that the two are very similar fighters: aggressive, with good submission skills and a penchant for offensive creativity. Now, fights between similar fighters don’t always work out well, as when two good jiu-jitsu players “balance each other out” (I think that’s how Joe Rogan likes to put it), or when two good wrestlers decide to play Amateur Kickboxing Hour instead of seeing who can take the other man down, but this should be an exception.

Since helping to give Efrain Escudero his walking papers in 2010, Oliveira has not had the best string of fights, losing to Jim Miller by decision and then having his fight with Nik Lentz be declared a no contest due to an illegal knee strike. I’d almost say that he’s the more dangerous fighter of the two on the mat, and what makes this fight interesting is that both men like to take risks and grapple aggressively, which can lead for openings that the other can exploit.

However, I think that the advantages I foresee for Cerrone in the standup and in wrestling will play more largely into the final result. Cerrone’s technique is a little better, he mixes up his attacks well and uses kicks competently, and I think he’ll get the best of most of the exchanges. In a fight between very evenly-matched fighters, that’s all the difference it will take as Cerrone wins a close decision.

Prediction: Cerrone by decision

Duane “Bang” Ludwig vs. Amir Sadollah

It’s hard for me to tell sometimes if I’m going with my heart more than my head on certain fights, and that may well be the case here. I have a soft spot for guys like Ludwig who were fighting back when dudes still wore skateboarding shoes to fight in King of the Cage events.

This fight will be a “do or die” moment for Ludwig, who always seemed like he simply didn’t have the wrestling to take advantage of his superb striking skills in mixed martial arts. However, after seeing Jim Miller outstrike him at UFC 108, it was clear that there are some chinks in Bang’s armor. Still, Miller uses a high-output, high-pressure style that Sadollah is unlikely to replicate, as Sadollah likes to take his time and pick apart opponents with a variety of strikes in a more analytical type of style.

Many are picking Sadollah, and I can see why. He’ll use his kicks to keep distance between the two of them (Bang definitely has the better hands) and he is likely already a better all-around grappler than Ludwig, too. However, I’m going to pick an upset here and say that Ludwig will turn back the clock with a KO or TKO win.

Prediction: Ludwig by KO/TKO

Ben Henderson vs. Jim Miller

Miller is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, but those days are quickly coming to an end with each new dominating performance. If he can put away Henderson tonight, it will be hard for even the most skeptical fan to deny that it’s about time he got a title shot. Meanwhile, Henderson looked good in his UFC debut against Mark Bocek, but is likely a couple of wins away from a title shot in a deep lightweight division. Of course, he definitely doesn’t want to take a step backward with a loss here.

This, as with the other three main card fights, has a lot of potential for being a great fight because both men like to set such a fast pace. However, the nod in that area goes to Miller, as you could see that Henderson had trouble keeping up with Anthony Pettis’ “riddim” through the last couple of rounds in their WEC bout. Still, this will be a three-rounder, so a lot of Miller’s advantage may not come into play.

Where Miller will reap some benefits is with his ever-improving (here’s lookin’ at you, Mike Goldberg) striking. A key part of his meteoric rise (okay, I’ll quit now) through the division has been the evolution of his striking and his ability to incorporate it flawlessly into his wrestling-based style. He ties his techniques together well (as does Henderson) and I expect him to get the better of most of the exchanges. I think he has more power in his strikes, too, though Henderson’s chin is very solid.

Will Henderson be able to take Miller down? I don’t think so. I think Miller is the better wrestler, even if Henderson is a bit slicker with submissions and has great submission defense, and he’ll be able to dictate not only the pace, but the location of the fight throughout. That’s enough for me to give Miller the nod in a great fight.

Prediction: Miller by decision

Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

Some great, if obvious, matchmaking here. While Hardy likely hasn’t turned the corner Lytle did some years ago where he realized that enjoying his fights was as important to him as winning them, he’s getting to that point. This is a great fight for both, as Hardy’s career will likely echo Lytle’s in many ways, though he doesn’t have the natural instinct for submissions that has really put Lytle over the top in his career.

It’s no shock to anyone who has visited the site for awhile that Lytle has long been one of my favorite fighters, but I think that he’s a good, objective choice to win this fight regardless of my allegiances. I like Hardy, too, and the thought that this fight could see him out of the UFC (at least for the time being) is a bummer…love him or hate him, I don’t see how you can deny that the UFC is better off with competitors like Hardy.

Why do I give Lytle the nod? He’s the better overall fighter. The question here is how much he will let his desire to entertain the fans override his desire to win the fight. This could end up being a very close stand-up battle, and I could see the difference being that Hardy is fighting for his livelihood and will be willing to mix in some takedown attempts as needed to win rounds. I don’t know that Lytle will be willing to do that, and it could cost him here as it did against Marcus Davis two years ago.

However, Lytle is so crafty with submissions that I don’t know how smart it would be for Hardy to take him down. Sure, Hardy is hard to submit because he’s extremely gutsy, but Lytle prefers chokes, anyway, and if Hardy doesn’t tap to one he will simply go limp. Hardy’s striking is actually a little more crisp than Lytle’s, especially since Lytle has decided in recent years to eschew straight punches in favor of throwing many looping punches and wide hooks. I know, I’m just giving reasons as to why Hardy will win, but I have faith in Lytle to put it all together and get the better of Hardy here. Besides, I can’t pick against him in his last fight.

Prediction: Lytle by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

9:03- TIME TO END THE SUFFERING! I NEED A MINUTE TO MYSELF gets us started as we get the gladiator/nu-metal treatment that we’ve come to expect with every UFC broadcast. I hope that gladiator dude is getting paid every time this bit is shown. Wouldn’t that be awesome? Good for him, if so.

9:09- Chan Sung Jung plans to not let the fight go to the judges this time around. Yeah, I wouldn’t want to either if I had been bent over on national television the way he had in his first fight with Leonard Garcia by the judges. The problem is that it’s not like either Jung or Garcia wanted it to go to the judges last time, did they? They did spend fifteen minutes basically trying to kill one another, so don’t hold your breath for a finish this time, either.

9:17- Both a little tentative early on. Joe Rogan is apparently only noticing what Garcia does, too. *Garcia lands a leg kick* “Nice leg kick by Garcia!” *Jung lands a leg kick* “Notice how Garcia is up on his toes here?”

9:20- Jung takes a close round by getting a takedown, landing a nice (possibly illegal) knee, then getting another takedown in the last two minutes. Got full mount in the last ten seconds, too!

9:21- Garcia’s hand was definitely down there. Dan Miragliotta was literally three feet away staring right at it, too. Not that I’m complaining, since becoming a “downed” fighter by putting your hand on the mat is weak sauce, anyway.

9:26- Yep, it only took one solid strike to throw Leonard Garcia in “oh yeah?!?” mode. A flying knee landed pretty flush and put the two into a brawl momentarily until dual high kicks ended with Garcia falling to the canvas. Jung gets position on the mat and taps Garcia with a twister!!! Holy crap!

9:31- Jung gives Rogan a hug when he comes to interview him. Jung says he’s been boning up on Eddie Bravo YouTube videos and experimenting on his training partners to learn his moves.

9:35- Jake “The Forgotten One” Shields gets an interview. Shields says his other title wins “were great” but the UFC title is the one that means the most. UFC 129 is a monster card, by the way. GSP and Jose Aldo defending their titles, as well as Randy Couture taking Lyoto Machida.

9:41- Time for Sadollah-Johnson. The happy carousel of possible opponents didn’t stop until recently for Sadollah, who finally got a final opponent in DaMarques Johnson. Apparently he “has evolved as a mixed martial artist”. You’d have to think that’d be true of, well, pretty much all fighters under UFC contract. You certainly don’t want to devolve when you’re training six days a week, right?

9:42- Gem from Sadollah: “He takes me down ten times, I’ll get up eleven!” Wow. That’s a good strategy, see: he’s actually getting up before he’s even taken down! Might as well get it out of the way in advance, right?

9:51- A lot of slippage so far, with both fighters hitting the canvas that way already. Good fight overall, though Sadollah has failed to do the impossible by standing up x+1 times, where x=the number of times he’s taken down. Actually, I’m wrong. Sadollah hit the mat the first time by slipping, so he has technically stood back up more times than he’s been taken down. He’s been vindicated! Take that, smart ass writer!

9:55- Second round is off to a fast start as we’re getting a nice, technical brawl here. Sadollah gets half guard top position and is able to nearly pound Johnson out. Johnson turtles for a half-second and then comes back into the fight and is able to get out of the bad position and stand up. Sadollah plants him again though and is in full mount…Johnson looks like he’s feeling the effects of not having a full training camp.

9:57- Sadollah pounds out the stoppage and gets the win. Did he look great? Oh, I don’t know. He looked like he always does: good striker, moderate power, fun to watch, can’t ever imagine him winning a title.

10:01- Sure enough, Sadollah admits that he wanted to push the pace knowing that Johnson wouldn’t have a full gas tank on two weeks’ notice. Joe Rogan asks the bizarre question of whether Sadollah is hoping to move up the ranks now. “Um, no, Joe, I want to stay right where I’m at or maybe even be cut altogether.” What kind of question is that?!?

10:10- I have to say, that Shields-GSP commercial is extremely well done. They’re really playing up the “Shields as Clubber Lang” angle, which is totally appropriate given that everyone in the world has seemingly written him off. GSP says he has an edge because he knows what Shields is going to try to do to him, but Shields doesn’t know what he is going to do. Fair enough.

10:13- Pre-fight, Anthony Johnson suggests that an opportunistic young fan who brings his baseball glove to the fights may just catch Dan Hardy’s head as it flies into the crowd. I’m sure Dana White would just make the fan surrender it, anyway. The fan could probably pry the mouthpiece out and keep that, at least, so that’s something.

10:19- I wish I liked anything as much as Dan Hardy likes being introduced by Bruce Buffer.

10:24- Hardy is in a bad spot after getting knocked down by a high kick and mauled in the way he might if he pissed off a bear. Johnson is a huge welterweight- he looks like he could eat Hardy if he chose to. Johnson rides out the round on top and takes the first stanza in my book, as well as that of everyone else not named Doug Crosby.

10:26- Stop me if you’ve heard this before- Hardy is taken down with relative ease to open the round.

10:30- I’m surprised that Johnson hasn’t started fading yet. He easily took round two via control and takedowns. Hardy needs to really come up with something here.

10:36- Hardy shows gutsiness down the stretch as always, but still finds himself on the losing side of a decision. Should be 30-27 across the board.

10:46- Lil’ Nog comes out to Method Man and Redman…I guess they’re big in Bahia?

10:49- Count me among those who don’t get the whole “writing on the mouthpiece” thing. An informal poll in my living room shows that two out of three respondents agree with me. A third wonders, “If you’re going to have writing on it, why not get a sponsor for it?” Good point!

10:54- Nogueira showing exceptional takedown defense in the first round. This is a real test for Davis now, who should be down 10-9.

11:01- Davis really responded in the last two minutes, taking down Nogueira and pounding him pretty good for the last sixty seconds in particular. Now let’s see who really wants it, eh? I love this kind of fight.

11:08- Davis aptly plays the third round smartly, taking down Nogueira but staying safely out of his guard. He wins the UD in my book, 29-28. Hmmm…all three judges gave it to Davis 30-27. Nogueira is in a bad stretch now. Davis says afterward that he was “falling apart” during his training camp and didn’t know if he could make it through. Davis continues down the more conventional path for a prospect; he’s not blowing people away Jon Jones-style, but he’s still making his way up and getting the experience he needs in the meanwhile.

11:12- Well folks, that’s all for tonight. Thanks for joining me here at Fightmania.com, and make sure to check us out next week as we gear up for another season (for better or worse) of The Ultimate Fighter.

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung

Jung has had some tough times since the brawl with Garcia that made “The Korean Zombie” a fan favorite. The tough times really began immediately after the bell rang to end the third round, as Garcia was given a decision that many believe he did not rightfully earn (Garcia has since done it again with Nam Phan). A loss to George Roop via a highlight reel head kick knockout continued the bad news.

Jung now says that he’s changing as a fighter, and wants to leave the brawling days behind. He spent time training with Urijah Faber and the rest of Team Alpha Male, which may translate to a few more takedown attempts this go-round. However, I still think Jung will be unable to resist duking it out with Garcia throughout this one, and we will be in for another lively bout, even if it doesn’t live up to the first one.

I thought Jung won the first fight between the two, and I don’t think a lot has changed for this one. Other than Jung possibly getting a couple of takedowns to help nudge the judges in his direction, this should be a very similar fight, and hopefully this time the judges will get it right.

Prediction: Jung by decision

DaMarques Johnson vs. Amir Sadollah

Johnson made a good enough showing of himself on The Ultimate Fighter, but has been a so-so 3-2 in his official UFC tenure. He’s one of your “jack of all trades, master of none” fighters that won’t really blow you away, but certainly belongs on the big stage. Sadollah, on the other hand, presents very clear strengths as well as a clear weakness. He is an excellent technical striker who does not get carried away with slugging it out, but breaks down opponents systematically. He’s also dangerous off of his back with submissions, but gives up takedowns too easily at times.

If Johnson wants to win this one, he has to pressure Sadollah. Technical strikers who favor a variety of strikes and combinations featuring kicks need room to operate, and Johnson will be foolish to provide any. He may be able to get takedowns or wear down Sadollah if he dedicates himself to doing so, and would then obviously have to be cautious to avoid being submitted by Sadollah, who has the better jiu-jitsu of the two.

In the end, I just think that Sadollah simply has too many ways to win here. He’ll be able to wear Johnson down with punches and kicks while avoiding the mat for the most part, and should be able to capitalize with a victory either by decision or a late TKO.

Prediction: Sadollah by decision

Dan Hardy vs. Anthony Johnson

Both of these men will be extremely motivated tonight, as Hardy is coming off of a disappointing loss and Johnson is coming off of a long layoff. Hardy was not “exposed” by any means in his knockout loss to Carlos Condit, unless by “exposed” you mean “proven to be human”. Live by the sword, die by the sword and all of that. Johnson, meanwhile, has questions surrounding him that mostly have to do with concerns outside of the cage. Is welterweight still the proper weight class for him? Will he be ready to step in and compete at a high level?

I doubt that many would argue that Hardy is the more accomplished technical striker. He has pretty good power as well, though maybe not as much as people tend to assume. Johnson is more powerful for sure, both in terms of striking power and strength in the clinch and on the mat. However, standing with Hardy for long would likely be a gamble, as Johnson must rely on landing a perfectly-timed shot as Condit did, or he will be getting the losing end of most exchanges as long as he strikes with Hardy.

What I’m counting on here is for Johnson to feel the effects of the long layoff and a big weight cut as the fight goes on. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Johnson win the first round, but he should fade as the fight goes on, allowing Hardy to come back in style by landing some good shots and finishing the fight opportunistically.

Prediction: Hardy by KO/TKO

Phil Davis vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Davis is at this point the most promising prospect in the light heavyweight division (it’s hard to call Jones or Bader “prospects” at this point), and will continue to develop before our eyes as he faces his biggest test, Lil’ Nog himself.

You have to feel for Nogueira a little bit, who has followed up an undeserved win against Jason Brilz by being thrust into a gatekeeper role, whether on purpose or not. If Davis is able to beat Nogueira as Ryan Bader did, it will be more and more difficult to see Nogueira as a legitimate top ten light heavyweight.

Nogueira is certainly the better all-around fighter, but Davis is such a physically talented fighter that it likely won’t matter. This may be the kind of fight that makes many fans cry “foul”, as Davis isn’t likely to stack up the highlight reel moments here. He’ll likely get takedowns early and often and work his way to a decision victory in the process. However, that’s exactly what he should be doing at this point, and he is smart enough to know that.

Where Davis will be in danger is if he indulges in the standup game with Nogueira for too long or decides to get too greedy on the mat. Though Nogueira is unlikely to sweep Davis, he certainly could capitalize on a mistake in order to secure a submission. Still, Davis has a good head on his shoulders and understands what he needs to do to win. Though he won’t do it with exclamation points like Jon Jones has, Davis will be every bit as impressive in his own way as he shuts down Nogueira tonight.

Prediction: Davis by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Amir Sadollah talks about his decision victory over Peter Sobotta at the UFC 122 event this past Saturday in Oberhausen, Germany.

After being misleadingly billed as “the last man to beat Anderson Silva” by play by play announcer Mike Goldberg (Okami won by disqualification when he wasn’t able to continue following an illegal knee by Silva), Okami finally completed a road to a fight for the middleweight title that has taken him over four years and twelve fights in the UFC to travel.

Okami didn’t set the world on fire, but stuck to his rather basic, yet effective game plan of using his jab, moving forward and getting takedowns when possible. The fight really came down to an uninspiring third round, where the fight appeared to be tied at a round apiece, yet Marquardt fought as if he was ahead and it was his fight to lose.

In the final stanza, Marquardt was content to back away from his busier opponent, throwing and landing occasionally but usually just staying out of trouble. He landed a takedown with about a minute and a half left, but Okami stood up within twenty seconds after not absorbing so much as a single strike from Marquardt. All three judges scored the fight for Okami, with two registering 29-28 scorecards and one returning a head-scratching 30-27 tally.

Afterward, Marquardt indicated that he did think he had won the fight, saying that he “did enough” to win. He thought that the shots he did land, along with his takedowns, were enough to win the fight even though he moved backwards and threw less strikes than his opponent. Unfortunately for him, the judges disagreed and he will have to get back in line for a title opportunity while Okami faces the winner of Silva and Vitor Belfort next year.

During a fight that was very entertaining while it lasted, Dennis Siver choked out Andre Winner late in the first round, taking a $60,000 “Submission of the Night” bonus in the process. Winner looked great early, winning several of the exchanges, but Siver’s power finally caught up with him, as a left handed counter dropped Winner, leading to the rear naked choke.

Winner was clearly stunned when he hit the mat, and he wasn’t able to effectively defend himself from Siver’s ground and pound. Winner turned his back, allowing Siver to get an opening, which he quickly took advantage of. Siver used the strategy that BJ Penn has often used to sink in the rear naked choke, trapping one of Winner’s arms with his leg while he got his hooks in. This left Winner without any real chance to defend the choke, and the rest was pretty much academic.

Peter Sobotta may be getting a pink slip soon, as he lost his third straight fight in a unanimous decision loss to former “Ultimate Fighter” winner Amir Sadollah. Sadollah took the fight with 30-27 scores on all three scorecards.

Throughout the fifteen-minute bout, Sadollah kept Sobotta uncomfortable with a variety of kicks, punches and combinations. Sadollah was able to defend a Sobotta takedown attempt late in the first round, and through the rest of the fight, Sobotta did little to put any pressure on Sadollah, which played right into his hands. Sadollah advanced to 4-2 in the UFC (and in his overall MMA career) with the victory.

Krzysztof Soszynski improved his UFC record to 5-2 with a comfortable unanimous decision win over Goran Reljic, who completely gassed by the end of the fight. All three judges gave each round to Soszynski, which is surprising because Reljic landed takedowns in the early rounds, though Soszynski threatened with submissions while Reljic did very little from the top position. Still, who expects judges to actually score fights with common sense?

The third round was a dominant one, and it often looked as if Soszynski could have finished Reljic if he had turned up the heat a little bit. Still, you can’t argue with the win, which was convincing and will help to bump Soszynski up the ladder a little bit after a disappointing loss to Stephan Bonnar in his previous fight.

Another fight that looked like it could have been finished in the third round was the bout between Duane “Bang” Ludwig and Nick Osipczak. After being out for eight months following a hard to watch ankle injury cost him his bout with Darren Elkins in March, Ludwig got through some early adversity in round one when Osipczak rocked him badly and poured on the pressure, with the fight looking to be just a moment away from being stopped a couple of times, including one point where Osipczak mounted Ludwig.

Ludwig survived, though he had a nasty cut to show for his efforts, and round two was a very close one that likely decided the outcome of the bout on the judges’ scorecards. The third round was even more decisive than the first, as Ludwig dominated from the outset and essentially treated Osipczak as a punching bag throughout. Osipczak just looked to survive as he regularly moved backward, covered up and rarely returned fire at his opponent.

On the prelims, Vladimir Matyushenko defeated Alexandre Ferreira by TKO about halfway through the first round, though there was some deliberation afterwards as to the legality of some of the elbows that Matyushenko used to help end the fight. Meanwhile, Pascal Krauss defeated Mark Scanlon by unanimous decision in a fight that earned the combatants matching $60,000 “Fight of the Night” bonuses.

Also earning a bonus on the prelims (for “Knockout of the Night”) was Karlos Vemola, who basically swarmed Seth Petruzelli from the get-go in an aggressive pursuit of an early finish in their bout. Petruzelli appeared to be weathering the early storm well, until punches and elbows from the guard caused Petruzelli to roll over, which led to the fight ending via TKO due to referee stoppage.

In other preliminary bouts, Carlos Eduardo Rocha defeated Kris McCray with a nifty kneebar in the first round of their fight, while Kyle Noke took down Rob Kimmons early and often before submitting him with a second round rear naked choke.

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Goran Reljic vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

This should be a great fight between two of the more underrated fighters in the light heavyweight division. Reljic returns to 205 lbs. after an unfortunate run at middleweight where he dropped decisions to CB Dollaway and Kendall Grove. He is a slick striker with dangerous head kicks and good speed for a light heavyweight.

Meanwhile, Soszynski has lost two out of three (to Stephan Bonnar and Brandon Vera) but is always a threat to opponents with his great conditioning, well-rounded style and versatility. He doesn’t have great knockout power, but is often willing to trade on the feet en route to workmanlike wins. He’s also underrated as a game planner, which could be important here.

You can never give a finesse striker too much room to operate, and that is the case here. Soszynski can’t afford to simply bide his time and allow Reljic to dictate the pace of the fight while lining up combinations and head kicks. The thing is, he probably won’t let him do so, anyway. Once the fight gets going full steam, I expect Soszynski to be up in Reljic’s face, pressuring him, clinching him, taking him down, etc.

Of course, Reljic has several submissions under his belt, but not against competition on the level of Soszynski. I’m tempted to pick Reljic because I think he has more upside and is a better overall talent, but I think Soszynski will fight smart and get out of Germany with a decision win.

Prediction: Soszynski by decision

Amir Sadollah vs. Peter Sobotta

Amir has had a bit of a tough go of things since winning “The Ultimate Fighter”. He has had a long injury layoff, had a fight stopped early against Johny Hendricks, and most recently was controlled en route to a decision loss against Dong Hyun Kim. Today he’ll fight in the fifth time in 15 months against Sobotta, a good striker with dangerous kicks who has dropped consecutive decisions against Paul Taylor and James Wilks.

Sadollah is a technical striker who is definitely capable of being taken down, muscled around or controlled by bigger fighters, but that shouldn’t be a factor here. In fact, Sobotta will play right into his hands (and vice versa), as both are likely to get the technical striking exchanges that they are hoping for. The question is who will get the best of them.

I like Sadollah here because he is a cerebral fighter who will mix up his attacks and quickly learn to deal with whatever Sobotta is bringing. The added dimensions of a good training camp and improved takedowns will pay dividends as Sadollah can use late takedowns to steal rounds, and he won’t fade late in the fight. Sadollah wins a competitive fight.

Prediction: Sadollah by decision

Dennis Siver vs. Andre Winner

Siver is a very dangerous striker who survived a rough early stretch in the UFC (1-3 in his first four fights) to rattle off wins in four of his last five, including a decision win against Spencer Fisher, which is an impressive accomplishment by any measurement. He’ll face Winner, who won two in a row after losing “The Ultimate Fighter 9″ finale against Ross Pearson, and then recently lost to Nik Lentz by decision.

There are a few things working in Siver’s favor here. He’s the harder striker by far, he’s stronger, and he’s more likely to control the fight when the two close the distance. The question is whether he will be able to make it more of a brawl, rather than letting Winner control the proceedings with technical striking from afar. However, considering all of the advantages Siver has here, I just can’t see picking against him.

Prediction: Siver by KO/TKO

Jorge Rivera vs. Alessio Sakara

Yet another entertaining bout on this card pits two veteran UFC fighters against one another in Rivera and Sakara. Rivera is one of the more inspirational stories in the sport, having overcome a ton of adversity, including the death of his teenaged daughter and your expected number of career setbacks in such a tough business, and it’s hard not to root for him. His career resurgence has been fun to watch, as he’s rattled off wins in four of his last five fights, including a knockout win over Kendall Grove and a TKO victory over Nate Quarry.

Meanwhile, Sakara survived some adversity of his own, losing four of six fights at some point, yet somehow retaining his status as a UFC fighter (somewhere, Efrain Escudero is shaking his head). Like Rivera, he has rebounded to win his last three fights.

There’s no question about it: this should be a very fun fight. These two will likely plant their feet and duke it out, and they both have the technical ability to make it a good fight rather than a sloppy slugfest. Sakara does have the better hands, though Rivera has the intangibles (corny as it may sound) that come from just having, well, huge balls. He’ll go to war until he’s either knocked unconscious or the fight’s over, and he frequently pulls off feats that people didn’t think he could perform.

It’s hard not to hope that he’ll do the same here, but I see Sakara as the better striker and even a little better on the mat, too. Both have been knocked out multiple times, and Rivera could certainly catch Sakara on the chin and put him to sleep, but I’m going to have to reluctantly go the other direction here.

Prediction: Sakara by KO/TKO

Nate Marquardt vs. Yushin Okami

Both of these guys have had the recent tendency to drop fights in the most inopportune times, costing them title shots. However, Marquardt has at least gotten one chance to face middleweight champ Anderson Silva, while Okami has not had that opportunity in the UFC, despite rattling off win streaks of four and then three fights in a row.

The question with Okami simply has to do with whether he actually makes good use of his talents. Sometimes he is just overly cautious, which doesn’t work so well when you’re a grappler who is looking to plant his opponent on his back and take the fight to him. When he has faced elite fighters (like Rich Franklin and Chael Sonnen), this has come back to haunt him, as he tends to drop decisions to more dynamic, aggressive opponents.

If he is truly dedicated to taking the fight to Marquardt and fighting a more Sonnen-esque type of fight, he could have success. However, I don’t think he’ll be able to do so for fifteen minutes. Old habits die hard, especially in terms of a fighter’s core mentality. Okami is just more passive as a fighter, and that’s that.

Plus, Marquardt has the far better overall skill set and is a better athlete, to boot. Okami may show up as the stronger fighter, but I think Marquardt can neutralize that strength with technique. I also think he’ll defend takedowns better than he did against Sonnen, and Okami’s takedowns aren’t on the same level as Sonnen’s, anyway. Marquardt takes this one to set up a possible rematch with Anderson Silva.

Prediction: Marquardt by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Amir Sadollah vs. Brad Blackburn

Everyone is aware of Sadollah’s history with the UFC, which got off to a poor start with a long gap between fights due to injuries, then a controversial stoppage loss to Johny Hendricks.  While Sadollah got back on track with a convincing decision win over Phil Baroni, the UFC clearly is not handing easy opponents to him, as Brad Blackburn presents a challenge in many respects.

Blackburn’s 15-9-1 record may not be extremely impressive, but he has reeled off a 5-0-1 streak in his last six fights, and boasts the kind of experience that can’t be replicated with hard work even in a top gym, like Xtreme Couture.  At the same time, Blackburn’s striking is more refined than Sadollah’s, and Sadollah won’t be likely to get Blackburn to the mat if he needs to.  Even if he does, it’s unlikely that Sadollah’s jiu-jitsu has gotten to the point where he will submit a veteran with only two career submission losses.

The blueprint on Blackburn is to win by decision or pound out a victory on the ground after multiple takedowns, and Sadollah won’t be able to do that.  What’s left will be a stand-up war, which I don’t think Sadollah will win, though it will be a competitive fight, for sure.

Prediction: Blackburn by decision

Aaron Simpson vs. Tom Lawlor

Two fighters who are, for all intents and purposes, undefeated will meet up on the main card tonight, too.  Simpson carries a 6-0 record, impressive wrestling skills and a frenetic pace into the cage.  Meanwhile, Lawlor’s only loss is by disqualification for an illegal knee, and he has proven to be a well-rounded fighter with opportunistic submission skills.

Lawlor will be unlikely to decide where the fight takes place, though if Simpson isn’t careful, there’s always the possibility that Lawlor will get the fight to the mat or stop takedowns that are poorly set up.  If Simpson uses his tools correctly, though, Lawlor will be stuck wherever Simpson chooses, which means the fight should stay standing unless he feels that Lawlor can compete in that realm.

Lawlor must be ready from the opening bell for the pace that Simpson will set, and must match his intensity or be quickly overwhelmed.  At the same time, Simpson must not make any silly mistakes with his aggressive style, or Lawlor will capitalize.  The problem for Lawlor is that if Simpson fights a smart fight and sticks to his strengths while channeling his aggressiveness properly, it’s his fight to lose.  I think Simpson will overwhelm Lawlor eventually, probably in the second round or later.

Prediction: Simpson by KO/TKO

Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

This will be probably the closest fight on the card, as the UFC is apparently hell-bent on one of these men losing their undefeated records before the night is through.  Both men are two fights into their UFC careers, both are solid wrestlers, and both are confident strikers.  This could be one of those matchups between two strong wrestlers that ends up being a kickboxing war of sorts, although I think we’ll see periodic takedown attempts from both men, as well.

Dunham has the “safer” style, in a way: he throws straighter, more fundamentally sound punches.  However, Escudero is more likely to end the fight with a solid shot from the standing position, and he has shown more of a range of skills with his jiu-jitsu, as well.  Still, I don’t see either man ending this one while the fight remains standing.  I’m also not convinced that this will go to the judges, since both fighters are much better in the top position than on the bottom when the fight hits the mat.  The question is, who will be able to take the other down with more regularity?

This is really a coin flip in many respects, but since I see Escudero planting his feet and throwing bigger punches, I also see Dunham having better opportunities for takedowns.  I think that either fighter will advance position when they take the top position, but I don’t see Dunham winning by submission.  Against my own better instincts, I’ll go with Dunham by way of a decision in a very hotly-contested bout.

Prediction: Dunham by decision

Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz

The toughest part of breaking down this one will be stretching out what to me is a very obvious prediction into something that represents a well-thought out analysis.

Oops.

Seriously though: didn’t we see this fight twice last year?  Diaz is not likely to have revamped his takedown defense, and does not have any semblance of a “puncher’s chance” from the standing position, as the high-volume punching style that has become a Diaz trademark seems to work much better for his brother, who packs a bit more power and mixes up his accurate strikes beautifully.

What we’re left with is a fight where an exceedingly cerebral wrestler (Maynard) will have to replicate what he already saw two other fighters do last year, all while avoiding a fight-ending submission from the slick Stockton, California native.  Is there a chance he won’t succeed?  I guess so, but it’s hard to imagine that Diaz will catch Maynard the way that he did during their time together on “The Ultimate Fighter”.  Maynard has improved by leaps and bounds since then, and has a possible title shot against BJ Penn dangling in front of him to keep him motivated.  He has also been able to train for this fight knowing that a mistake-free fight where he avoids getting caught in a submission is all that he needs to muster to get what he wants: a showdown with Penn.

I just don’t see Diaz being able to stop Maynard’s takedowns, and instead, I see a frustrating fifteen minute bout for Diaz.  I do have a lot of respect for the jiu-jitsu game of Diaz, and it’s always possible that he catches Maynard with a triangle choke or other submission, but I attribute my prediction more to the fact that Maynard will fight a very careful, conservative fight than to any lack of ability on the part of Diaz.

Prediction: Maynard by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Rogerio, who is the twin brother of former heavyweight star Rodrigo Nogueira, will make his promotional debut at the event.

Rogerio will face rising UFC light heavyweight star Luiz Cane, in the 205-pound division.

UFC 106 card:

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson
Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett
Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni
Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
Brian Foster vs. Brock Larson
George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent
Fabricio Camoes vs. Caol Uno (Not yet announced)
Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann

Lesnar withdrew on Monday from the main event on the Nov. 21 card, due to an illness that has kept him out of training for over three-and-a-half weeks, according to Yahoo! Sports.

“He said he’s never been this sick in his life,” UFC president Dana White told Yahoo! Sports. “He said it’s been going on for a long time and he just hasn’t been able to shake it.”

Carwin revealed on his Twitter that the fight will be postponed until January 2nd.

UFC 106 Fight Card:

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett
Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni
Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent
Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira*
Brian Foster vs. Brock Larson*
Fabricio Camoes vs. Caol Uno*
Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann*

*Not yet officially announced

FanHouse claimed on Sunday that the fight was signed for the UFC 106 event.

Both Larson and Foster are coming off a loss last month and are desperate to get back on the winning track.

The UFC 106 card, as it appears now:

Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin
Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Jon Fitch vs. Ricardo Almeida
Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett
Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni
Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
Jason Dent vs. George Sotiropoulos
Brock Larson vs. Brian Foster*
Fabricio Camoes vs. Caol Uno*
Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira*

*not yet officially announced