Urijah ‘The California Kid’ Faber talks about his round 2 guillotine submission win over Brian Bowles at UFC 139.

As always, all rankings cited are those of Fightmania.com.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

Bonnar has carved out a career as a hard-working, gutsy fighter who is a jack of all trades, but a master of none. In that way, he’s kind of a poor man’s Forrest Griffin, though they differ in that Bonnar prefers a more classic boxing style than Griffin’s leg-kick heavy approach.

Meanwhile, Kingsbury has found a groove in the last three years, rattling off four straight wins in the Octagon. Bonnar may not only represent the stiffest test he’s faced, but the most recognizable name, as well. Pair that with the coveted main card slot this fight has received, and this represents a big opportunity for Kingsbury. Of course, it’s also a chance for Bonnar to further prove that he’s got plenty left in the tank, following impressive wins over Krzystof Soszynski and Igor Pokrajac.

Bonnar showed in the Soszynski fight that he can beat an opponent similar to Kingsbury, and you can expect him to use his solid standup technique and maybe even some wrestling to try to win this one. However, Kingsbury is very athletic and will likely win the wrestling battles if and when they occur. In the standup, it’s a lot closer of a battle, though Kingsbury has more power than his opponent.

In a fight like this one that could be very close, I like to look at who has the edge in strength, athleticism, and other areas. That makes me favor Kingsbury. Throw in that Bonnar is easily cut (and judges are easily swayed by cuts), and I can see Kingsbury taking a competitive decision.

Prediction: Kingsbury by decision

Martin Kampmann (#10 WW) vs. Rick Story

Story was the flavor of the month in the welterweight division after upsetting Thiago Alves at UFC 130, but a last-minute replacement took the wind out of his sails not much later, as Story lost to Charlie Brenneman. Brenneman was a bad style matchup, as his dogged determination to getting takedowns and superior wrestling put Story in a tough place throughout the fight. This matchup is a bit more favorable for Story, though Kampmann is a tough fighter, himself.

Kampmann has had to make a career out of fighting opponents who simply wanted to take him to the mat. This will be business as usual then, to an extent. Also, Kampmann has had two controversial losses in a row by split decision to Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields. If Story can beat Kampmann decisively, that’s another big feather in Story’s cap.

Kampmann will undoubtedly win the standup. Though he sometimes gets caught and doesn’t have the best defense, it’s doubtful that Story will use his rather basic standup fighting approach to do more than score points and lead into takedowns. Where this fight is decided is when Story shoots in on Kampmann. Can Kampmann stay off the mat? Sometimes he will, but I think Story gets enough takedowns to win a close one.

Prediction: Story by decision

Brian Bowles (#4 BW) vs. Urijah Faber (#2 BW)

Bowles may not be the big name in this matchup, but he’s got a lot going for him besides looking a lot like Dirk Diggler in “Boogie Nights”. His resume is dotted with quality wins (Miguel Torres, Damacio Page, Takeya Mizugaki) and just one loss (to Dominick Cruz, so no shame in that), and he’s got concussive power at 135 pounds that not only poses a danger to his opponents, but to his own hands as well.

He faces another guy who has had trouble with broken hands in the past in Faber. Faber, however, will not be looking to stand and trade for long. Very few men have been able to keep Faber at a distance for long, and he will use his wide hooks and overhand punches to close the distance for takedowns and clinches while trying to wear Bowles down and get him to the mat. If he does, Bowles will have an uphill battle against an opponent who has an uncanny ability to control, improve position, and submit in relatively short order.

Bowles may give Faber some scary moments, but I’ve got Faber here in a fight where he just out-wills an opponent like the Urijah Faber of old used to. This should be a great fight.

Prediction: Faber by submission

Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva

If this was the Silva of 5-6 years ago against a motivated, active Le, this would be a great fight. As it is, this is a fight that had me apprehensive from the word “go”. Silva has shown in his recent appearances that he simply can’t refine his style- at least, not for long. The moment he thinks he smells blood, he goes to the beast mode that made him great for so many years, but which now puts him at considerable risk whenever he fights.

Le is tailor-made for this fight, a pin-point striker and counter puncher who can keep his cool under pressure and pick his spots with patience, precision and just a bit of cruelty, to boot. Watch his fight against Tony Fryklund back in his Strikeforce days for a display of some of the most awe-inspiring striking you’re likely to see at this level, for instance. Le doesn’t just score points, though, he punishes opponents with his kicks.

I’m not going to go into a long recap of the last couple of years of Silva’s career, which have been hard to watch as a guy who was a big Wanderlei fan going back to the Pride days. We all know the story, and though it’s easy to look for reasons for optimism (the Bisping fight, the fact that Leben is one of the hardest punchers in the division), Silva is breaking down in front of our eyes and I have a hunch that this might not be pretty.

Le is a bit of an x-factor because of his inactivity and the fact that we’ve only seen him fight Scott Smith in the last three and a half years. However, Silva is an even bigger question mark due to concerns about his chin, his recent knee problems, and his all-or-nothing approach. I’d be happy to be wrong about this one, but I can’t simply pick Silva due to what he used to be or because I’d like to see him return to form.

Prediction: Le by KO/TKO

Dan Henderson (#5 LHW) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (#3 LHW)

From one question mark to another, now we take a look at Shogun Rua, who has been a mixed bag since coming to the UFC in 2007. Sometimes he looks great, sometimes he looks awful, and many times he just looks okay. It’d be hard to pick anyone over Shogun if you knew he was going to be on top of his game, but who can predict that?

Then you have Dan Henderson, one of the more consistent fighters of all-time, and…well, you know where I’m going with this. Still, let’s go through with it and take a closer look, shall we?

Rua can fight one of two ways. He can come out and swarm on you, overwhelming you en route to an impressive victory, or take the space you give him and pick you apart (as many of us thought he did successfully in the first Lyoto Machida fight). Henderson is not going to allow him to do that, though. He’s a pressure fighter with a sturdy chin who can withstand the early storm and keep coming back. I don’t think Rua is necessarily a front-runner, but he does have a limited gas tank and tends to fade in the face of constant pressure. Being that this is a five-round fight, there’s even more reason to doubt Shogun here.

Henderson’s wrestling really presents an added bonus, here. Should he choose to, he can unquestionably take down Shogun at some point and win some favor with the judges. Shogun is a capable jiu-jitsu player, but Hendo is savvy enough to stay out of trouble while delivering some ground and pound. Then you have one of the most destructive weapons in the history of the sport, Hendo’s right hand. Shogun should, and probably will, look to keep Hendo at bay with consistent leg kicks, but that approach hasn’t slowed Hendo much in the past. This is a great fight, but Hendo is the better overall fighter and presents an approach that Shogun has struggled with in the past, which gives me enough reason to pick him.

Prediction: Henderson by decision

BANTAMWEIGHT DIVISION (135 LBS.)

1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Joseph Benavidez
4. Brian Bowles
5. Scott Jorgensen
6. Miguel Torres
7. Demetrious Johnson
8. Masakatsu Ueda (9)
9. Brad Pickett (10)
10. Takeya Mizugaki (8)

There was action at the top of the division this month, but Cruz did not relinquish his top spot to challenger Faber, instead cementing his reputation as a pound-for-pound great. Faber did well enough that I still feel he deserves the second spot, although he and Benavidez may as well be “2A” and “2B” right now. Mizugaki lost to Jorgensen by decision and drops two spots, while Ueda defeated Rumina Sato with a body kick in Shooto two weeks ago and moves up to the eighth position.

FEATHERWEIGHT DIVISION (145 LBS.)

1. Jose Aldo
2. Hatsu Hioki
3. Kenny Florian
4. Diego Nunes
5. Marlon Sandro
6. Chad Mendes
7. Manny Gamburyan
8. Michihiro Omigawa
9. Dustin Poirier
10. Tyson Griffin

Hioki is now with the UFC, and will debut at UFC 137 against George Roop. Meanwhile, Mendes faces Rani Yahya in a week at UFC 133. Florian will take on Aldo this fall in what Captain Obvious reports will be “one of his toughest fights ever”, and Sandro will keep plugging along in the Bellator featherweight tournament after advancing past the first round last month.

LIGHTWEIGHT DIVISION (155 LBS.)

1. Frankie Edgar
2. Gilbert Melendez
3. Gray Maynard
4. Eddie Alvarez
5. Shinya Aoki
6. Jim Miller (7)
7. Melvin Guillard (9)
8. Anthony Pettis
9. Tatsuya Kawajiri (NR)
10. Dennis Siver
Dropped out: George Sotiropoulos (6)

Three fights took place at UFC 132 that affected this month’s rankings. Sotiropoulos drops out after another loss, this time by KO to Rafael dos Anjos, who is on the cusp of joining the top ten with another good performance. Meanwhile, Melvin Guillard starched yet another opponent, putting away Shane Roller in impressive fashion, and he moves up to seventh, leap-frogging Pettis in the process. Finally, Siver won a close decision against Matt Wiman, but didn’t look that great, so the debuting Kawajiri moves into the top ten and past him at the ninth spot. Kawajiri TKO’ed Drew Fickett in the first round in Dream this month. We’re still waiting for Edgar-Maynard 3, and Melendez will be in action next against the capable Jorge Masvidal, who is also just outside my top ten right now.

WELTERWEIGHT DIVISION (170 LBS.)

1. Georges St. Pierre
2. Jon Fitch
3. Josh Koscheck
4. Nick Diaz
5. Jake Shields
6. Thiago Alves
7. BJ Penn
8. Carlos Condit
9. Martin Kampmann
10. Rick Story

July presented a second straight month with no movement in the welterweight rankings. Condit soundly defeated Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 132, but he stays put at the eighth spot. I can’t move him ahead of BJ Penn because he knocked Kim silly, can I? He presents a fun, fresh challenger for St. Pierre after St. Pierre faces Diaz, though.

MIDDLEWEIGHT DIVISION (185 LBS.)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Yushin Okami
4. Nate Marquardt
5. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza
6. Vitor Belfort
7. Demian Maia
8. Hector Lombard
9. Brian Stann
10. Mark Munoz

Belfort and Akiyama will face off next weekend at UFC 133. Also, Jacare will take on Luke Rockhold in September, and Silva will fight Okami next month in Brazil. Marquardt couldn’t fight, and I’ll leave him here until we’re sure he’s going to be at welterweight. Now that he’ll be fighting in BAMMA, I’m not sold on him continuing to cut all that weight since he won’t exactly have elite competition blocking his path at middleweight. Jacare will defend his Strikeforce title against Luke Rockhold in September, while Sonnen and Stann will face off in a fight that I’m not sure anyone really wants to see, but make sense for the UFC title picture.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT DIVISION (205 LBS.)

1. Jon Jones
2. Rashad Evans
3. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
4. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
5. Dan Henderson (6)
6. Lyoto Machida (5)
7. Forrest Griffin
8. Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal
9. Gegard Mousasi
10. Phil Davis (NR)

Dropped out: Bader (10)

Bader obviously drops out with his stunning loss to Tito Ortiz in early July, his second in a row. I’ll put Phil Davis in there at tenth as a result. Hendo just put away Fedor Emelianenko with a stoppage in a wild fight that forces me to prop him up to fifth. I know, Machida is very good, but what can you do? Dan should be a middleweight and just put away Fedor! Plenty of action awaits this division in the next couple of months, as Ortiz takes on Evans early next month, while Griffin and Shogun will have a rematch of their 2007 fight in Brazil near the end of August. Jones defends his title for the first time against Rampage in September.

HEAVYWEIGHT DIVISION (up to 265 LBS.)

1. Cain Velasquez
2. Brock Lesnar
3. Fabricio Werdum
4. Junior dos Santos (5)
5. Alistair Overeem (6)
6. Antonio Silva (7)
7. Fedor Emelianenko (4)
8. Shane Carwin
9. Frank Mir
10. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Fedor lost last night by TKO to another legend in Dan Henderson, and many will be dropping them from their top tens. Not I. Why? Well, the Cliff Notes version reads like this: Fedor fights a brawling, wild style, and when you do that you’ll get clipped from time to time. It’s not like getting rocked by Hendo means you have a suspect chin. I still think he beats fighters 8-10 on this list.
Aside from that, the biggest story in the heavyweight top ten in July took place outside of the cage, as Overeem was dropped from Strikeforce after a strange saga that began when Overeem said he wouldn’t be ready to fight Silva in the next round of the Strikeforce grand prix in September (an October date was previously given). Nonetheless, some big fights are already set up in this division, including Velasquez-dos Santos and Nogueira-Schaub. We also have the rest of Strikeforce’s grand prix to look forward to, even if it lost a considerable amount of luster when Overeem departed from both the tournament and the company.

POUND FOR POUND (No Limit)

1. Georges St. Pierre
2. Anderson Silva
3. Jose Aldo
4. Frankie Edgar
5. BJ Penn
6. Dominick Cruz
7. Jon Jones
8. Lyoto Machida
9. Rashad Evans
10. Dan Henderson (NR)

Dropped out: Jon Fitch (10)

We all know that pound-for-pound rankings are imaginary journalist bullshit, but Dan Henderson (along with Silva and Penn) give it a much more literal meaning by moving up in weight and consistently doing well. Hendo just TKO’ed Fedor Emelianenko and he’s champion of a division he really has no business in, how can he not be on the pound-for-pound list?

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Here’s the preview of UFC 132: Cruz vs. Faber event which will be held on July 2, 2011 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Main card

Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben
Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader
Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman

Preliminary card

Melvin Guillard vs. Shane Roller
George Sotiropoulos vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Brian Bowles vs. Takeya Mizugaki
Brad Tavares vs. Aaron Simpson
Nigeria Anthony Njokuani vs. Andre Winner

>>> Discount UFC 132 Tickets <<<

Make sure to refresh regularly for updates!

8:01- Thanks to everyone who’s joining us at Fightmania.com for the live blog tonight. I’ll let Mike Goldberg get us started with his favorite phrase- no, not the one about someone having a “definitive” advantage, the other one. “Here we go!”

8:03- Well, anyone who was worried about Diego Sanchez no longer bringing the unintentional comedy thanks to his life changes can relax now. His pre-fight interview, complete with freshly-shaved head and unblinking intense stare, starts the night off with plenty of laughs. Kampmann takes a considerable lead for the “line of the night” award with “I’ll put him to sleep and he can ‘dream’ all he wants”.

8:09- Our first fight is Brian Bowles vs. Damacio Page. Bowles is still rocking the 80′s part and looking just like Dirk Diggler. He tells Page in the pre-fight hype video, “You’re not the boss of me! I’m the king! I’m the king of Dirk!” Okay, he doesn’t, but he really should.

8:13- We’re almost underway. No surprise here, Diggler has the 4 1/2″ reach advantage.

8:15- “The Angel of Death” almost sets new levels of morbidity for a nickname, even in MMA. I think someone should just go the other way with it. Take the nickname “The Love Master” or “Professor Hugs”. How about “Cuddles”? You have to be a badass to fight for these drunk, ravenous fans with that nickname. “The Spider! Cuddles! Next!”

8:19- What a fight! Page took it to Bowles early on, really working on his lead leg with heavy kicks, but an eye-poke led to Bowles saying “Eff this” and turning up the aggression. A heavy uppercut hurt Page and a tight guillotine rendered him unconscious. Page’s second loss to Bowles by submission.

8:22- Very god of Bowles to tell the referee Page was out. Then again, maybe I’m giving too much credit, here. I suppose if he didn’t tell the ref, he’d be trying to kill him, right?

8:24- Which leads me to one of my pet peeves in sports today: anytime an athlete isn’t a total dickbag, he or she is “classy”. It’s classy when fighters shake hands after a bout, it’s classy when a basketball player helps another one up off of the floor, it’s classy when a fighter doesn’t talk shit about his opponent in the post-fight interview. Really? When did the bar for class get set so low that you can be classy by default if you’re not a jerk? Classy isn’t graded on a curve, my friends: it’s pass/fail. Great quote for your Facebook pages, by the way. Spell my name right when you attribute it to me!

8:25- Bonus fight footage as we get to see Igor Pokrajac (I spelled that without double-checking; achievement unlocked) and Todd Brown fight. I’d like to see a breakdown on the combined UFC records of fighters named “Todd”. It can’t be good.

8:30- I guess the prelims were full of fighters making puzzling strategic decisions. Brown initiated the clinch multiple times with Pokrajac even though he really needed to have a standup fight with him, and Steve Cantwell opted to stand up and let Cyrille Diabate off his back in the first round of their fight, leading to his demise.

8:33- Pokrajac just made the most gentlemanly call out of another fighter ever. The recipient was Tito Ortiz, by the way. I like it. I think every fighter on the card should have agreed to call Tito out after winning, regardless of their weight class. Come on, you wouldn’t laugh at that?

8:38- Jon Jones gets the interview treatment from Joe Rogan. He really buys into his ability and says he thinks he’s already there, “there” being “the best light heavyweight in the world. He just doesn’t think he’s had the chance to prove it. I actually like his confidence. You can’t jump out of nowhere to fight the top fighter in the world in your weight class without it.

8:39- Alessio Sakara continues the celebrity somewhat-look-alikes theme. If only his English was better so he could shout, “Tonight…we dine…IN HELL!” In comparison, we have Chris Weidman, who couldn’t get into his own post-fight party without being carded.

8:45- Continuing the theme even further (probably too far): Our referee is Gary “Lil’ Lesnar” Copeland. By the way, Sakara is almost Stevenson-esque, maybe even Danzig-esque in his ability to stay in the UFC regardless of his level of performance. Not quite Bonner-esque, though.

8:48- Sakara is throwing some good combinations, but maybe not as good as Rogan is giving him credit for. It’s pretty much left hook, right hook, right leg kick each time. Most of the hooks are landing on Weidman’s arms, to boot.

8:50- Put me down for 10-9 Sakara for a rather pedestrian first round. No, I mean literally pedestrian- Sakara keeps dropping his hands and walking around the cage between exchanges. His activity level really dropped towards the end of the round, though I like his takedown defense so far.

8:53- Weidman is showing some capable ground and pound and good guard passing after getting his first takedown of the fight early in round two. Sakara’s mystery cut that came seemingly out of nowhere in the first round is really getting sloppy. Nothing like Edwin Dewees in “The Ultimate Fighter 4″, mind you. In terms of gushiness, that’s the gold standard right there.

8:56- Rogan points out that the cut is a new one and not the one from the first round. Awesome moment as Sakara wipes the blood off with Copeland’s shirt. “Gimme yer shirt, bitch,” Rogan says to add his own personal caption to the moment. Saves me the work. Anyway, round two goes to Weidman, who had a lot more success with his takedowns and seems to be getting more comfortable out there. I like Sakara’s ability to stand up and sweep from his back, as well as the body shots, though.

9:02- Sakara is really struggling now. Weidman is securing each takedown with ease and Sakara can’t do much off of his back. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before.

9:06- Sanity prevails as all three judges give the bout to Weidman, though no one gives the first round to Sakara. Weidman has to be pleased to come in with a 4-0 record and win like this on two weeks’ notice in his UFC debut.

9:12- With Jones out of the way, we get the obligatory Rogan-Shogun interview. Nothing to see here. Safe to say Shogun isn’t a title-holder in the Ultimate Charisma Championship.

9:14- If you like your striking sloppy and your fights grindy, get ready because Munoz-Dollaway is NEXT! Dollaway bears a passing resemblance to Jim Carrey’s female bodybuilding character Vera de Milo from In Living Color. I’m reaching at this point, but we’re gonna get through this celebrity lookalike thing unscathed, I promise.

9:17- Dollaway has a five inch reach advantage, but Munoz’s cauliflower ear advantage is just as decisive. Call it a wash.

9:20- Munoz overcomes a bad mistake early on that allowed a takedown by Dolloway to tag Dollaway with a right hand and finish on the mat for a TKO. The stoppage looked a bit premature, but as Munoz got off of Dollaway, Dollaway’s eyes were focused somewhere in the 20th row of the crowd, so we’ll call it good. Of course, Dollaway recovers quickly after that and proceeds to throw Mario Yamasaki under the bus by protesting the stoppage, but you’ve gotta do what you’ve gotta do, right?

9:23- Why do fans boo the victorious fighter after a premature stoppage? Not that this one was, but the question remains. For that matter, why boo the winning fighter after a poor judges’ decision?

9:24- We get a shot of Kenny Florian and Todd Harris wearing 3-D glasses, as apparently they’re commentating on the 3-D broadcast on Xfinity, whatever that is. Those glasses are ridiculous, though. They look like what people imagined the future would look like back in the 1950′s. You know, like they would be right at home with flying, super shiny cars and silver reflective jumpsuits.

9:27- Another bonus prelim, with Thiago Tavares and Shane Roller getting the replay treatment. Rogan notes that Tavares looks “very thick”, and it’s unclear whether he’s talking about his musculature or his eyebrows. Those things look impenetrable. Like an evil cartoon henchman’s hidden lair.

9:29- Tavares is sponsored by a salon, apparently. Goldberg compares him to Vitor Belfort, maybe because everyone with fast hands is comparable to Belfort. Or because Tavares looks like Belfort’s little brother. Either way.

9:32- Roller isn’t setting up his takedowns with strikes and Tavares is having no trouble fending them off as a result. 10-9 round for Tavares to start. I feel weird scoring fights that have already happened, by the way.

9:35- You know who Tavares really looks like? If he had a mustache, he’d look exactly like John Oates of Hall & Oa– Holy shit! Roller lands a perfect straight right that floors Tavares out of nowhere and lead to a stoppage immediately after. “Holy shitbuckets!” says my wife. I concur.

9:45- Kampmann is out first for the main event and he comes out to Three 6 Mafia’s “It’s a Fight”. Both a completely obvious statement and proof that he’s been watching Rocky Balboa.

9:46- Goldberg notes that Kampmann’s got more ways to win this fight. I almost thought in WWE terms for a second there, like Dana White marched out Vince McMahon-style and declared that Sanchez can only win by submission or something.

9:47- Sanchez walks out to “La Bamba” but wears the same tough guy face he always does. It’s a weird contrast. It’s almost as if he’s challenging the song to remove his scowl, and you know what? He’s winning. Seriously, don’t put it past him, there’s about a 80% chance that it’s why he picked this song. Or maybe because he’s crazy. Or a little of both. Let’s just move on.

9:50- Contrast in styles: Sanchez stares across the Octagon while making his best Clubber Lang face. Kampmann smirks back and grooms his eyebrows.

9:52- Bonus observation: next time you see Diego Sanchez from a side view, check out how his forehead slopes right into his nose with nary a bump. It’s weird.

9:53- Sanchez looks a bit flabby. They start and Sanchez is throwing with the ferocity of a young Tito Ortiz. Or at least the craziness of a young Ortiz. Kampmann is calm and technical as always. Kampmann stuffs the first takedown attempt of the night and drops Sanchez with a straight right for good measure.

9:54- Kampmann has the front headlock and Sanchez is bent over with one hand on the mat to avoid being kneed in the grill. They need to change that rule so a downed opponent is simply someone on one or both knees, back, etc. None of this “touch the mat to avoid having your face kneed in” crap.

9:57- The first round ends and it’s all Kampmann. Sanchez’s face is a mess and he’s bleeding rather heavily out of his mouth. He still manages to make the tough guy face, while Kampmann makes the “I’m really glad I’m not you right now” face.

9:59- Rogan says Sanchez’s corner wanted lots of takedown attempts with switches from single leg to double leg and so forth. I’m not sure how well it will work, though. Kampmann’s takedown defense has been remarkable so far. Like Rogan said, “effortless”.

10:01- Sanchez is working really hard for a takedown here, but Kampmann doesn’t even look challenged. Sanchez swings for the faces but Kampmann is no worse for wear, other than a cut near his right eye. This is turning into quite a fight.

10:03- For all the talk about the cut to Kampmann “changing the course of this fight,” Kampmann is still winning. He’s landing the better shots for the most part, fending off takedowns with ease, and being more economical with his striking. Of course, judges often reward activity over actually landing punches (see: Leonard Garcia), so who knows.

10:06- Sanchez picks up where he left off, landing a big right to the head, then to the body. Rogan mentions Kampmann breathing out of his mouth, but Sanchez has been doing so since minute three of the fight. Goldberg continues his assault on the cliche record, throwing in “bloodied, but not beaten” for good measure.

10:08- I am amazed at how Sanchez hasn’t gassed even for a second, even though he’s obviously not in his best shape. He finally gets a takedown, but Kampmann stands quickly. This round is up for grabs, and the fight probably is, as well.

10:10- Kampmann has definitely injured his right hand, and Sanchez is all over him with a minute left. Sanchez is a freaking warrior. After that first round, to keep going the way he has is incredible. The horn sounds and the fight is over. An early contender for fight of the year, and Sanchez just may have pulled it off.

10:11- It’s all about who the second round went to. The first was Kampmann’s, and the third belonged to Sanchez for sure. That said, I completely expect a 30-27 one way or another from at least one judge.

10:13- The cards are in and Diego Sanchez wins it. Not Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez, mind you. Diego “The Dream” Sanchez. Gutsy performance for sure. Fans are booing and I’m really not sure why. They must be hardcore Kampmann fans, if such a thing exists. Sanchez is a mess. Incredible comeback.

10:15- Both fighters think they won and that’s fair enough. It hinges on the second, and that was a close round (I gave it- and the fight- to Kampmann, personally). I’m not sure why every close fight has to be turned into a controversy, though. It’s a close fight! That second round could go either way. I’m surprised to hear that Rogan backs Kampmann for the second round, considering how he was reacting to everything Sanchez did that round. He even acknowledged that Kampmann was hurt twice in the second round.

10:19- At any rate, a great night of fights. Nearly all of them delivered, and best of all, they were free. Thanks for joining me, everyone. Make sure to check back later this week for both my thoughts on tonight’s fights and UFC 127. Have something to say? E-mail me at akathatoneguy (at) hotmail.com.

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Preliminary Bout Quick Picks

Todd Brown over Igor Pokrajac

How is Pokrajac still in the UFC? He’s lost 3 out of 4 fights in the normally cut-happy promotion.

Rousimar Palhares over Dave Branch

Also my pick for “most likely to end in a gruesome, injury-causing submission”.

Dongi Yang over Rob Kimmons

Yang is over his UFC jitters and should take a competitive bout against the veteran Kimmons.

Takeya Mizugaki over Reuben Duran

How is Mizugaki, a top ten bantamweight, missing out on being featured on both the main card and the Facebook prelims portions of the event?

Shane Roller over Thiago Tavares

Roller grapples his way to a decision win in what could either be a compelling mat battle or a bit of a snoozefest.

Facebook Prelims

Steve Cantwell vs. Cyrille Diabate

Cantwell’s name is misleading, as he does everything pretty well. He’s a competent, accurate striker, solid wrestler and has good submissions. Meanwhile, Diabate’s skill set provides a more obvious path to victory, as his mat game is definitely his weakness. However, he has outstanding kickboxing that provides a serious danger to foes.

Cantwell will have his moments, but I think that at some point Diabate will be able to catch Cantwell with something nasty and move in for the finish. This is a winnable fight for both fighters, though, and Cantwell simply has to grind his way to a late stoppage or decision if he wants to have his hand raised.

Prediction: Diabate by KO/TKO

Danny Castillo vs. Joe Stevenson

Castillo will debut in the UFC against tough veteran Stevenson in what should be an entertaining scrap. Both guys will want to move forward all fight long, while their particular strategies within that mindset will vary. Castillo will unleash powerful punches while Stevenson will use his striking to close the distance, wear out Castillo and take him down.

Castillo is far more likely to get a KO than Stevenson, but Stevenson is very good on the mat and will waste no time passing the guard and putting Castillo in bad positions should he get there. I think he will and he will take a step toward returning to his former status of being just on the outside of the elite lightweights in this one.

Prediction: Stevenson by submission

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Brian Bowles vs. Damacio Page

We haven’t seen Bowles in awhile due to his propensity toward broken hands, but he brings his freaky similarity to Mark Wahlberg’s character in Boogie Nights to the UFC tonight against Page, who’s a tough character himself. Bowles is just plain better, but Page is as tough as nails and opportunistic on the mat.

I think Bowles will have similar success to what he had in their first meeting, as he’ll have the power to make Page uncomfortable and the ability to finish the fight standing up or on the mat. Page will rarely have breathing room in this one, as Bowles showcases his skills for a whole new set of fans.

Prediction: Bowles by submission

Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Weidman

Style-wise, the matchup is a fairly friendly one for Weidman, who is a pretty good grappler with great takedowns. However, Sakara has a huge edge in experience and any miscues on Weidman’s part will be harshly punished with Sakara’s more than capable standup.

One good aspect of striker vs. grappler matchups is that they provide a rather clear path to victory for each man. Weidman was likely salivating when he watched tape of many of Sakara’s mat misadventures, but Sakara has improved and the bright lights of the UFC will provide another opponent for Weidman to contend with, too. Weidman will unquestionably be better in the long run, but Sakara’s experience edge will be too much here.

Prediction: Sakara by KO/TKO

CB Dolloway vs. Mark Munoz

I’m always intrigued by matchups between fighters with similar styles, particularly when it isn’t immediately clear which fighter is superior in that specific area. Therefore, this bout should be interesting and might even cross over into “entertaining”, as well.

Both have been your typical crossover athletes from college wrestling to MMA, and have had their share of respective successes while not adding the dynamic elements to their games that someone like Ryan Bader has. Still, there is probably something to be said for Munoz’s power advantage, even if he’s a little sloppy with his striking. I also expect Munoz to be stronger, though Dolloway may have more refined skills on the mat. I’m not sure that will mean much if Dolloway is on his back, though, and while much of this fight will take place standing or in the clinch, I think Munoz will get more of those fight-sealing takedowns.

Prediction: Munoz by decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez

These two have both had their time as contenders in the welterweight division, and Sanchez memorably challenged BJ Penn for the lightweight title as well, though that obviously didn’t go so well for him. Since then, Sanchez has rebounded nicely and apparently changed his life while attempting to get back on track in the division he made his name in.

Kampmann will enjoy a clear advantage while standing; Sanchez has capable striking but has never expanded beyond the basics, while Kampmann will use a variety of weapons to keep Sanchez guessing (and hurting). If Sanchez gets the fight to the mat, Kampmann will be in trouble but should be able to survive. He won’t submit Sanchez by any means, but Sanchez will control him and land shots consistently. I just think Kampmann will be able to keep Sanchez off guard and fend off his takedowns tonight.

Prediction: Kampmann by decision

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