Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

This is an interesting bout featuring a solid prospect in Weidman. Maia used to be a feared grappler, but has seemingly lost his mojo since he got a title shot against Anderson Silva and his last four wins have come through (mostly underwhelming) decisions. What I wonder here is whether Weidman will attempt to outstrike Maia or dangerously engage him where he is strongest: on the mat?

Weidman has the wrestling skills to take down Maia, though I doubt the inverse is true. In my opinion, Maia will be forced to fight the type of fight that Weidman wants because of this. If Maia can outstrike Weidman, he can not only force Weidman to fight him on the mat, but he’ll be obviously winning the fight in the judges’ eyes, as well. Eventually, I think that Weidman will take the fight to the mat, though. Either his confidence will swell after getting through a round or two unscathed or he will want to more definitively win rounds. Who knows; maybe he’ll shoot right off the bat, though I wouldn’t advise it.

In the past I would have expected Maia to win this one if it went to the mat. It wouldn’t even be a debate for me. However, Maia’s approach has been much more cautious and methodical of late, and I’m not even sure that he would submit Weidman if he did play into Maia’s game. On top of that, I think Weidman’s striking is improving very quickly and he will likely get the better of that part of the fight, too. This is a bad style matchup for Maia and will end in a loss, unless he can show some of the aggressive jiu-jitsu we saw from him in the past.

Prediction: Weidman by decision

Michael Bisping vs. Chael Sonnen

Sonnen thinks this should be the main event, and I concur. Another thing that I agree about is that he will beat Michael Bisping. Don’t skip to the next fight just yet, though! Don’t you want to hear why?

Well, maybe not, because quite frankly, it’s not that complicated. Sonnen has no qualms about admitting what he’s going to do when he fights someone like Bisping, or anyone else for that matter. He flat out admits that he’s going to take his opponents down and try to pound them. He also admits that he doesn’t care whether people find it particular entertaining, because his job is to win, first and foremost.

It’s strange that such an obvious approach would not be the norm in this sport, but that’s the way things are. Fighters either believe or pretend to believe that their job is to entertain first and to win second. Again, Sonnen is not that type and he will doggedly pursue takedowns as long as the fight continues.

People are talking about what Bisping has to do in his standup, but I don’t think it’s a particularly interesting subject. Of course he has to watch his range, snap off straight punches and be ready to sprawl at a moment’s notice. The thing is, this fight will hit the mat and that’s when the outcome will be decided.

Bisping is a hard cat to hold down; that much is for sure. While his submission game is pretty decent, it’s his ability to stand back up that has allowed him to succeed in many of his fights. However, Sonnen is on another level entirely from most other grapplers in the middleweight class, and he will be up to the task of taking Bisping down and keeping him there. That will guarantee him at least a decision win, though I’ll be optimistic and predict a late TKO after Sonnen wears Bisping down.

Prediction: Sonnen by KO/TKO

Phil Davis vs. Rashad Evans

I was surprised that this was named the main event of such an important show and not, say, the co-main event of a pay-per-view or something. Sure, it’s two big names and it is an intriguing fight, but it is also a bout for which the potential for a “dud” is very, very high. Chances are this will not be the type of fight that you would choose to show to someone who has never seen MMA before. Yet, that’s what the UFC is doing.

I’m always interested to see two high-level wrestlers go at it, because it’s intriguing to find out who can nullify the other’s ability. Less interesting, though, is the possibility that neither will want to attempt takedowns, and the threat of takedowns from the other man will lead to stilted, conservative standup. Hopefully, that’s not what we see here.

If there’s a chance of this bout being a good one, it’s that Evans should be able to tool Davis a bit in the standup. If he is aggressive and is putting a beating on Davis, it will force Davis to take the fight to the mat, which will lead to this bout being more than a sparring match between a couple of wrestlers. Of course, if Evans is conservative, as he often is, Davis may be content to move around with him, throwing the occasional strike and leading to a rather dull fight. The thing is, either way I think that Evans wins.

Prediction: Evans by decision

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Here’s the preview for UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard III. This event will take place this Saturday, October 8 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.

Main Card:
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon

Preliminary Card:
Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens
Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic
Zhang Tie Quan vs. Darren Elkins
Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer
Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio

Dos Santos makes strong case for a compelling title fight

There was a lot to like about Junior dos Santos’ performance last Saturday night, and that’s coming from someone who had been somewhat reluctant to buy into the hype surrounding him. (On a side note, that is an indication that I am slow to buy into fighters until they beat some top names, not an indication that I am somehow a “hater”)

There was the willingness to finish when he had Shane Carwin hurt early on, the cardio he showed by keeping a consistent pace throughout the fight, or the “ever-improving” (c) Mike Goldberg standup game that he utilized to punish Carwin. I also was impressed by his ability to get up when taken down, though I did expect that in my preview of the fight.

The point is that these are all attributes that he will need in spades to be a legitimate threat to Cain Velasquez. Velasquez is better in all areas than Carwin with the exceptions of pure punching power and possibly ground and pound, so Dos Santos obviously needs to put on an even better performance against him. I won’t preemptively predict a title change, but I also won’t laugh at anyone else for doing so after seeing what Dos Santos brought to the cage with him against Carwin.

A note on Carwin: I know there are probably endless forum threads right now declaring Carwin “finished” or “overrated”, so this is as good a time as any to point out that losing to a fellow elite fighter in your division doesn’t make either of those things true. Carwin is about what we thought he was- a ridiculously dangerous fighter, particularly early on, with good wrestling, solid striking, and a good chin. Only you can also add “improved cardio” and “a ton of heart” to those qualities after his performance on Saturday night, too.

Quick Shots

–Kudos to Sam Stout for providing us even more evidence that fighters absolutely [em]can[/em] stop themselves from delivering unnecessary shots to unconscious opponents at the conclusion of fights. If Stout was able to recognize, in the heat of battle, that Yves Edwards was out cold, why can’t other fighters do the same in their bouts? Particularly when so many fighters frantically race in to get in extra blows knowing that the referee will be stopping the fight at any moment and they have to rush if they want to get the unnecessary shots in?

–I’m not sure why Vancouver fans didn’t appreciate Demian Maia-Mark Munoz. In my book, it was one of the better fights on a really solid card, with both not only fighting in aggressive fashion but showing off better standup technique than I would have expected. Also, I like that Munoz is always classy and humble in victory, even deflecting attention to his opponents skills regularly during the post-fight interview. And it makes sense: why do fighters ever use post-fight interviews to slight their opponents, even subtly? You just beat the guy, what purpose does it serve you to knock on his skills? Doesn’t that devalue your win? Talking your opponent up makes more sense, as it makes your win appear that much more prestigious. Plus, it doesn’t make you look two-faced, since fighters inevitably hug it out after bouts even when heavy trash talk had occurred before them

–I realize that when you have different referees doing different bouts, there will be some inconsistencies. However, there is no reason that Einemo-Herman should have been stopped while Dos Santos-Carwin was allowed to continue past the whooping Dos Santos was putting on Carwin in round one. I’m not saying that Herb Dean should have stopped the fight in the first round; I’m actually arguing that Kevin Dornan shouldn’t have stopped Einemo-Herman so quickly when Einemo hit the canvas. The real point is that there needs to be more consistency with how quick referees are to stop fights. I’ve heard every explanation in the book in the past, including the asinine theory that bigger fights, or bouts with titles on the line should give fighters more leeway to absorb punishment before a TKO. None of that makes sense- if it’s about fighter safety, Einemo-Herman should be given as much time as Dos Santos-Carwin was.

Say What?!?

“I don’t think jiu-jitsu really even works.“- Dave Herman, during his pre-fight interview

Adventures in Judging

This event had a couple of face-palm moments courtesy of the judges. We of course had the Michihiro Omigawa decision (where Dave Hagen turned in a 30-27 scorecard for Darren Elkins), which was awful, but then there were also some head-scratchers in other fights, as well. Nelson Hamilton turned in a perplexing 30-27 scorecard in favor of Mark Munoz, and Hagen turned in a similarly-improbable 30-27 for Kenny Florian in his fight. There’s simply no way that Munoz or Florian won every round in their respective fights, regardless of whether they deserved to win two out of three rounds. On another note, only one judge, Bill Mahood, gave Junior dos Santos a 10-8 first round in his one-sided beating of Shane Carwin. The other judges, Sal D’Amato and Hamilton apparently do not believe in assigning 10-8 rounds except in cases of dismemberment and/or near execution.

The Munoz scorecard is particularly troubling. In the first round of their fight, Demian Maia outstruck Munoz 23-7 and Munoz missed his only takedown attempt. Just awful judging, and even though one 30-27 didn’t affect the overall outcome, judges still need to be held responsible for such scorecards because one day, their poor judging will make the difference in another fight.

Why You Don’t Bet on MMA

Dos Santos-Carwin actually made it the full fifteen minutes, which somehow became even more improbable thanks to the near-TKO in the first round.

The Sound of Violence Award

This one goes to Dave Herman for walking out to Culture Club’s “Do You Really Want to Hurt Me?” Everyone laughed at the fact that he came out to a Culture Club song during the broadcast, but the idea that a professional fighter would come out to a song about convincing someone not to do them harm is amusing enough in my book.

Movin’ On Up Award

We always see upward mobility on a UFC card, and this one was no different. No one really shocked me on this card, so I’ll give it to Junior dos Santos, who beat a very tough opponent and now has gone from a relatively unproven top ten fighter to a legitimate challenger for the title.

The Bob Seger “Beautiful Loser” Award

This award is for the fighter who was most impressive despite losing his fight, and I’ll avoid picking Omigawa even though he deserved to win and was robbed by the judges. Instead I’ll select Demian Maia, who displayed much improved standup technique in his fight with Mark Munoz, who also looked much better than usual himself.

“Holy Crap!” Award

I know, “Holy crap!” is not as creative as “Goodnight, Irene!” but it is less abrasive and has withstood the test of time. This one goes to Sam Stout, for his beautiful looping left hook counter that laid Yves Edwards out cold during their preliminary bout.

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Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha

Occasionally, fights present themselves that can be broken down as simply as “if fighter a doesn’t do ____, he’s done for.” This is one of those fights, “fighter a” is Vagner Rocha, and the blank should contain “get Cerrone to the mat”.

Rocha is your prototypical (stereotypical?) Brazilian prospect; he’s strong in jiu-jitsu and considerably less so in everything else. Meanwhile, Cerrone is a danger to most on the mat and has aggressive, dynamic striking. Rocha will not be able to really test Cerrone’s biggest weakness: his defensive wrestling.

Whether Rocha will doggedly pursue takedowns or even pull guard (which Cerrone amusingly asked Rocha not to do in a recent interview) if necessary will be a big factor. We’ve seen many BJJ-based fighters sort of shrug and relegate themselves to losing a prolonged standup battle when their first few takedown attempts are easily shrugged off…will Rocha be among that group?

I don’t know that it matters, as this is as easy a fight to predict as there is on the entire card. Cerrone busts up Rocha standing up while stuffing the occasional takedown attempt for the win.

Prediction: Cerrone by KO/TKO

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz

A more interesting matchup presents itself in the second televised bout of the evening, as wrestler-turned-brawler Munoz looks to club his way through yet another win against dynamic-grappler-turned-decision-specialist Maia.

Maia was becoming a fan favorite with his willing standup and full-throttle submission game before a strange and memorable (for all the wrong reasons) loss to Anderson Silva derailed his progress. Since then, he’s won two rather lackluster decisions against rather lackluster opponents: Mario Miranda and Kendall Grove. This is Maia’s toughest test in awhile and he needs to impress here.

Munoz has pounded his way to five wins in six fights against decent competition; his most recent wins against Aaron Simpson (decision) and CB Dollaway (KO) are also his most impressive to date. His main advantage tomorrow night will be his striking power, both standing and from the top position on the mat.

Maia is a more technical striker, but he’s also considerably less comfortable exchanging than Munoz is. Like all powerful punchers, Munoz has a swagger to him that exceeds his technical ability, as he favors heavy, looping punches over straight, economical ones. If he lands on Maia, it could obviously be a very short night. Maia will know this, though, and do his best to close the distance and get the fight to the mat one way or another.

Maia could conceivably take Munoz down, but it’s not altogether likely. He will get the fight to the mat somehow, but the question is whether Munoz will be cool with that or if he’ll endeavor to keep the fight standing, instead. A mat battle would be great to watch because Munoz is very aggressive with his ground and pound, as is Maia with his submission attempts. If this fight hits the mat regularly, there’s no way it goes to a decision. I think (hope?) that Munoz’s aggressiveness on the mat will give Maia both the opportunity to submit him and the urgency to make it happen.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman

This fight won’t be highly anticipated by fans who look for recognizable names, but it should be. These heavyweights have a combined 26 professional wins, but only one combined decision. If you can make a bet with an uninformed friend over whether this one goes the distance, it’s easy money no matter the odds.

Furthermore, this is a true “striker vs. grappler matchup”, as much as I dislike the notion of such things in 2011. If this fight was guaranteed not to hit the mat, Herman would be guaranteed a win. Conversely, there’s no way that Herman would survive fifteen rounds on the mat with Einemo, who is a gifted grappler.

Herman will rely too much on knees and kicks in his striking, however, which will gift Einemo a takedown or two. That will be enough for Einemo to take advantage and quickly move towards a submission, giving him the upset victory.

Prediction: Einemo by submission

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes

The Incredible Shrinking Kenny stepped on the scales today at 35 pounds less than he did in his official UFC debut six years and fifteen fights ago. Everything that he’s said indicates that this is (finally) the right weight class for him and that he feels great as a featherweight.

Do we believe him? Sure. He documented his weight quite publicly leading up to the fight and appears to have had a good cut, to boot. So let’s cast any doubts about his strength or stamina tomorrow aside and look at the actual matchup, instead.

In overall skills, I favor Florian, who has much better standup, a good ground game, and always has a sound strategy, to boot. Nunes is great when he can apply pressure and keep opponents uncomfortable, and that’s not a bad way to fight Florian. However, if Florian can strike to keep his distance and match Nunes’ strength and pace, he will take some rounds on the judges’ scorecards.

I don’t know that either fighter can reasonably be expected to finish the other, and I wouldn’t be surprised seeing both fighters win one round apiece. I think Florian is savvy and skilled enough to take two out of three, though, which is how I expect this one to turn out.

Prediction: Florian by decision

Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos

This pair of heavyweights, like Einemo and Herman, have one decision win between them, and Carwin has been past the first round just once in his entire career. It’s safe to expect some considerable fireworks here.

Carwin is a pretty big question mark now, though. His cardio looked less than great after he failed to finish Brock Lesnar, who made it through a dreadful first round in a gutsy performance before dominating Carwin in the second en route to a submission. Carwin looked awful in the second round; he was entirely depleted. However, a drop of some excess pounds and an apparent change in training strategy makes me wonder if he won’t have more in the tank this time around.

Dos Santos has no such concerns, and has looked outstanding in his six UFC fights, all of which he has won convincingly. There are no questions regarding his superiority in the standup aspect of the fight against Carwin, who lacks dos Santos’ speed and technical savvy, especially in the footwork department. However, Carwin could be the hardest puncher in the division, which is quite an equalizer.

Making things even harder to predict is the fact that Carwin has a great chin, as he showed in his memorable win over Gabriel Gonzaga some time ago. He’s also fairly smart about closing the distance when he’s faced with a more technical striker, as he showed when punishing Frank Mir against the cage in their bout.

The real x-factor here, besides Carwin’s gas tank, is dos Santos’ ground game. I don’t necessarily see him subbing Carwin from his back, but I do see him being very hard to take and hold down. This will all help him wear Carwin out, and once we hit the second round, Carwin’s takedowns will be sloppy if he doesn’t have much left in the tank. That seems like the safe way to go here, as dos Santos likely starts teeing off after weathering an early storm from Carwin.

Prediction: dos Santos by KO/TKO

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For sure, the prelims are full of talented young fighters and feature a few matchups that could turn into memorable scraps. Here’s what to expect in tonight’s preliminary bouts.

Nik Lentz vs. Waylon Lowe

These two lightweights feature very similar styles, as both will use striking to set up their takedowns and are wrestlers at heart. Lentz is known for winning a rather, ummm…”close” decision against Tyson Griffin, while Lowe overcame a solid thrashing at the hands of Melvin Guillard to put a couple of wins together.

Lowe may have an edge in the striking department, but both will be so focused on denying takedowns that it’s hard to say whether he’ll take advantage of that edge, anyway. Lentz is probably the better grappler in MMA, and has proven it against better competition. Lentz takes a competitive decision.

Prediction: Lentz by decision

Mario Miranda vs. Aaron Simpson

This is a good matchup between two solid fighters that are struggling to stay afloat in a competitive division. Simpson will be particularly desperate for a win, having dropped two in a row. However, he holds a distinctive edge over Miranda in that he will be able to take Miranda down all night long.

Miranda may be a better striker and showed against Demian Maia that he’s a tough fighter to finish, but that won’t matter as time is ticking off the clock and Miranda is stuck on his back. Miranda may have his moments, but Simpson will control his way to a safe, if unexciting, win here.

Prediction: Simpson by decision

Johny Hendricks vs. Anthony Waldburger

Waldburger is an impressive young fighter who brings a refreshingly aggressive submission game to the cage with him, as seen in his UFC debut against David Mitchell. However, Hendricks is on another level. He’s superior in just about all areas and will be able to dictate the pace and location of the fight with relative ease.

Waldburger may flash some potential throughout the bout, but Hendricks will likely be all over him for the duration. Hendricks has impressive power in his hands and can elect to take the fight down, but may not need to do so, anyway.

Prediction: Hendricks by KO/TKO

Sean McCorkle vs. Christian Morecraft

This one is pretty much a pick ‘em, as even though the two fighters have different skill sets, the likely-frenetic pace early on and the implications of two 265+ lb. men swinging at one another can yield a variety of possible results.

I haven’t been overly impressed with either fighter, but I do like McCorkle’s ground game, which I think will yield the ultimate result in his favor. Morecraft could always land something early on, but he fades rather quickly and that presents just another reason why I feel inclined to go with McCorkle.

Prediction: McCorkle by submission

Edwin Figueroa vs. Michael McDonald

Not the Michael McDonald that ruined the Doobie Brothers, mind you.

Figueroa is a late injury replacement who has had about one week to adjust to the reality of facing McDonald on the biggest stage of them all. Figueroa boasts the requisite undefeated record from his regional adventures, but that means little against an opponent the caliber of McDonald.

McDonald is effective in all areas and will likely get off to a quick start in this one. I don’t know that Figueroa will be able to withstand the early storm. He may have a bright future, but this is a tough way to make your UFC debut.

Prediction: McDonald by KO/TKO

John Hathaway vs. Kris McCray

Despite the recent loss to Mike Pyle, I still feel that Hathaway is one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. He brings a great ground game with excellent takedowns to the cage, and will frustrate McCray early and often while threatening with submissions and some good old ground and pound, to boot.

McCray is a good enough fighter with some relatively dangerous striking, but I don’t see him being able to stop Hathaway from imposing his will here. McCray may come out with guns blazing because his back is against the wall after consecutive defeats, but Hathaway should still roll over him here.

Prediction: Hathaway by submission

Jon Madsen vs. Mike Russow

These two appear to be very similar fighters, and to a certain extent that is true. Both have good wrestling credentials and are similarly-sized. However, while Madsen is more of a one-note wrestler in the cage, Russow has better finishing skills both in regard to striking and submissions.

Madsen would be a safe enough pick to win by decision because he will stick doggedly to his game plan, but Russow showed tremendous resilience and power in his last appearance (ten months ago!) against Todd Duffee. I’ll take Russow in a real coin-toss matchup.

Prediction: Russow by KO/TKO

Alex Caceres vs. Mackens Semerzier

We all know Caceres from his “Bruce Leroy” antics on The Ultimate Fighter, and Semerzier is a WEC veteran making his UFC debut. I’m actually a little surprised that Semerzier is around, considering he went 1-3 in his WEC tenure after losing three straight. Still, he is a talented fighter beyond what his record indicates.

Caceres likes to strike, but under his own terms. He needs distance and time to operate, and gives me the impression of someone who doesn’t want to get into a brawl. Therefore, Semerzier needs to avoid giving Caceres room to operate in this one. Semerzier should have an edge here because he’ll pressure Caceres, maybe even plant him on the mat from time to time. He’ll make Caceres uncomfortable, and eventually may be able to break him.

Prediction: Semerzier by KO/TKO

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And yes, I just answered a rhetorical question. My own rhetorical question, at that. Let’s just move on.

Brookins, Johnson give reason for optimism

I was among the many who had started to become a bit disappointed by what was a steadily-declining talent level of “The Ultimate Fighter” casts. However, while it’s hard to truly assess the entire field of this season’s cast already, the finalists themselves compare favorably to any other duo from previous seasons.

That’s not to say that these two will go on to dominate in the UFC, of course. If anything, there has been a definite shift from having experienced veterans winning “The Ultimate Fighter” to putting on more of a prospect-oriented show. Part of the reason that the decision to cut Efrain Escudero was so puzzling was because of this change: if you know you’re throwing prospects into the UFC instead of fighters who are already established veterans, shouldn’t you give them a chance to develop properly?

Regardless of how Johnson will fare in the deep waters of the lightweight division, as well as Brookins in what I expect will be a career at 145 pounds, they have shown that they are extremely talented competitors. Not only that, but in a sport where we have seen how big of a difference hard work and a humble attitude can make, these two are willing to learn and don’t have the big heads that many of their predecessors had. It’ll be exciting to see how their careers go from this point on.

Is strategy really to blame?

This isn’t really just a point about last Saturday’s event, but it seems as good a time as any to bring it up, since it’s been a hot topic for awhile now: is strategy really the culprit for so many of the lackluster fights we’ve been seeing?

In the past, Greg Jackson and other “cerebral” trainers and fighters have been cited as a reason for what is perceived to be a growing number of underwhelming fights. The idea, I suppose, is that fighters who do a lot of strategizing are just fighting to win decisions, rather than going out there and letting it all hang out during entertaining fights that the fans will enjoy.

Now, I won’t deny that all-out brawls are entertaining, but look at it from the fighter’s perspective. How many fighters who put on memorable brawls or had highlight reel knockouts (or submissions) from going for broke are now no longer employed by the UFC? Clearly, winning should be priority number one for any professional athlete, and especially one who will literally be in physical danger if he decides to let up for the sake of entertainment. To even question whether winning should be a fighter’s top priority is ridiculous.

Furthermore, is using a good strategy really to blame? Should we use that blanket accusation, or narrow it down a bit? After all, not all strategies are the same. If your strategy is to counter leg kicks with hard right hands, or to use low kicks to set up a high kick later in the fight for a knockout, that’s going to make for a pretty good fight. If your strategy is to lean against your opponent against the cage for two full rounds to “wear him down” in the hopes of overwhelming him in the third round and at least having a decision victory to fall back on, maybe that’s not so compelling.

I would say that as much as anything, the high talent level of fighters in general is sometimes making for slower-paced, methodical fights. Take Demian Maia’s fight with Kendall Grove, for example. Though Maia has looked a bit conservative lately, it was clear that Grove was just doing a good job of, well, surviving throughout a lot of the fight. For that matter, Maia’s improving striking kept Grove from being able to put him away in the standup portions of the bout. What followed was a lackluster fight.

You can’t discount the effects of increasing pressure to perform, too. Fighters are getting cut for losing two bouts in a row, and now they’re getting cut for not being exciting enough, too. If fighters knew that a loss or two wouldn’t end their UFC career and take food off their family’s tables, maybe they’d take more chances, huh?

Garza’s scary KO of Paixao marred by poor sportsmanship

Anytime someone is nailed by a flying knee while shooting for a takedown, it makes for an exciting moment. If you’re looking for someone to downplay the timing, reflexes, quickness and skill it would take to land such a technique at a moment’s notice, I’m not the guy to do it. So Pablo Garza’s KO of Fredson Paixao was already going to have people talking, no matter what.

However, for me and at least a decent number of others, the completely unnecessary follow-up hammerfist (along with another attempted one that struck referee Steve Mazzagatti instead) stole the spotlight from the impressive technique that began the whole sequence. I’ll remember that KO now for not only the fact that Paixao was down for about four minutes, but for the awful sportsmanship shown by Garza after the knee struck Paixao.

Save your arguments, please. I’ve heard them all. “Things happen quickly in there!” Yes, and yet Robbie Lawler was able to stop himself on the very same night from landing any extra blows on an unconscious Matt Lindland. There are plenty of other examples, too. You’re telling me that the same guy who just timed a flying knee on a takedown attempt at a millisecond’s notice couldn’t react to a guy falling down and going limp in time to stop himself?

What about “you don’t stop until the referee steps in”? Right, so the fighters shouldn’t have any responsibility for not acting like dickbags, because the referee did a poor job or was out of position? This is another poor argument that is just used when the previous one is countered. If your opponent is clearly tapping or is clearly knocked out, release the hold or stop hitting him. It’s pretty easy. Don’t give me a story about how Murilo Bustamante or Royce Gracie was screwed years ago because the ref didn’t see a tap, either. I also don’t want to hear that guys often are KO’ed and then “come back out of it.” When they do come back out of it, it’s because they got punched again, so if anything, that’s an argument against continuing to hit an unconscious opponent.

You want to talk about things that are dangerous for MMA? There’s nothing more dangerous than some fighter deciding that he needs to frantically get two or three extra shots in on a clearly-unconscious opponent, only to have that opponent end up being seriously injured. Fans talk all the time about how some fighter making a stupid comment in the media or a horrible fight card is going to hurt the sport, but an injury based upon a fighter feeling the need to continue assaulting an unconscious opponent could literally put the entire sport in danger.

Garza seemed legitimately concerned for Paixao after the fight, and I’m not saying he’s a horrible person. He’s part of a sport where landing extra shots after someone is completely out is readily accepted, and a “go til the ref stops it” mentality is as much a part of the sport as touching gloves to start a fight is. That’s why the rule needs to change, and fights such as Garza’s should be reviewed clearly. If there’s a chance that the fighter was deliberately getting in extra shots, he needs to be suspended and fined. MMA fighters can learn to adapt to changing rules when they fight in different promotions and are capable of reacting to situations in a split second, so surely they can learn to adjust to not being allowed to pummel prone opponents until being tackled by the ref.

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Johny Hendricks vs. Rick Story

These two criminally-underrated welterweights bring lengthy winning streaks into the Octagon with them, as Story has won four in a row, while Hendricks has never been defeated in nine professional fights. Not only should this fight make fans better acquainted with the two, but it will decide which one continues to make his way toward a future title shot and which will simply go back to a very deep talent pool to start the process all over again.

Story’s best chance for the win lies in catching Hendricks with a big shot early on. Story is always at his best early in his fights, and I have a feeling that Hendricks will push Story to exhaustion within a round or two. The problem is that Hendricks has very strong wrestling, and will be putting Story on his back early and often. I think Story won’t be able to really concentrate on putting good strikes together either, since the thought of being taken down will always be looming.

Prediction: Hendricks by decision

Demian Maia vs. Kendall Grove

Each of these two have been both celebrated and written off at one point or another for different reasons. Maia was another Anderson Silva opponent who didn’t have the takedowns to bring Silva to the mat, resulting in a boring, even puzzling bout. While Silva should have been blamed for most of it, there has been residual damage for Maia, who is now often called a “boring fighter”. There’s no doubt that his two decision wins over Dan Miller and Mario Miranda have also encouraged that perception, as well.

For Grove, having back-to-back losses expand into four losses in seven fights has been damaging to his credibility as a talented middleweight. Grove has always seemed to be talented and dangerous: his rangy, lanky frame is perfectly utilized in his striking style, which uses a lot of straight punches, kicks and clinch work. Furthermore, his jiu-jitsu is more than enough against most opponents. However, it seems that Grove is just a good fighter stuck in an organization that is stacked with great fighters.

Grove likely sees a light at the end of this particular tunnel in that Maia’s standup is really not good at all. Grove’s blueprint couldn’t be more obvious: use his length, keep Maia at bay, avoid going to the mat, and win. However, Maia does not simply rely on double-leg takedowns to take opponents to where he’s most comfortable. He will do everything up to and including just grabbing an opponent and pulling them into his guard to make a fight more of a jiu-jitsu match.

He’ll get Grove on the mat regularly for as long as the bout lasts, and that’s a problem: despite lackluster performances against Silva and Miranda, Maia has among the sport’s best jiu-jitsu, and he’ll remind us why that’s true in this fight.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac

Bonnar has been written off by many as being “done”, and even I have questioned why he is still under contract when he lost five out of seven bouts at one point. However, it’s not as if he’s been losing to bums: of his UFC losses, only the one to an over-the-hill Mark Coleman stands out as truly disappointing. His other losses were to former UFC light heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, current prospect Jon Jones, and then a stoppage due to a cut against Krzysztof Soszynski.

Translation: Pokrajac has a lot to prove in this one. After losses to Vladimir Matyushenko and James Te Huna, Pokrajac was strangely allowed to keep his spot in the UFC and submitted James Irvin for his first UFC win. He will certainly be looking to take Bonnar down as often as possible in order to earn a victory.

However, what’s he going to do after he gets a takedown? Bonnar has an underrated defensive guard and isn’t likely to give up position to Pokrajac or get submitted. Furthermore, his takedown defense is pretty good, and he’ll likely be peppering Pokrajac whenever the two are upright. I think Bonnar will do what it takes to frustrate Pokrajac throughout: Pokrajac may never stop working, but it won’t matter.

Prediction: Bonnar by decision

Jonathan Brookins vs. Michael Johnson

What some fans may not know about TUF 12 finalist Brookins is that he has not only competed in the WEC before, but he actually fought Jose Aldo himself. Brookins took Aldo into the third round before being dispatched, which is more than many of Aldo’s foes can say.

Brookins career before TUF is also relevant because of the fact that he’s a natural featherweight. Far from being the first fighter to fight a weight class (or two) up from his natural weight to be on “The Ultimate Fighter”, Brookins will be giving up some size and strength to Michael Johnson, who on the show proved to be a capable striker who preferred taking down his opponents.

Standing up, I favor Brookins slightly because he’s a more technically-sound striker. However, there’s an asterisk there because Brookins likes to stick his chin up in the air at times, and Johnson is the harder striker of the two, as well.

Johnson should be able to take Brookins down, though Brookins’ craftiness means that he can possibly sweep Johnson, stand up when taken down, or pull submissions out of nowhere. Johnson is definitely the safe pick in my view, so I’m surprised more people aren’t predicting him to win. He’ll get his takedowns, push the action, and be my favorite to win the fight if it goes to a decision, as a result. However, how can you not be wary of Brookins’ submissions and overall polished skill set if you’re backing Johnson?

This should be a great fight, and both should have good UFC careers, although Brookins’ should take place in the featherweight division.

Prediction: Brookins by submission

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Can Maynard beat Edgar again?

When Frankie Edgar first faced Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night 13 in April of 2008, he ended up with his first career loss. Maynard hung with Edgar during the standup portions and really impressed the judges when it came to out-muscling the smaller Edgar for takedowns and against the cage.

Now, the two will face each other yet again, with considerably higher stakes. Edgar has really solidified his spot as the best lightweight in the sport with a second consecutive win over BJ Penn, and Maynard, love him or…well, I don’t know if anyone really hates him. How about “love him or don’t care one way or the other”? In any case, Maynard has continued to do what he does: outperforming opponents, stifling them and winning fights by any means necessary. It just so happens that the necessary means often require a full fifteen minutes of action.

Interesting, then, that I think the biggest advantage Edgar will have is the extra ten minutes on the clock when the two face off in a five-rounder. Edgar has shown himself to be a supremely quick, well-conditioned athlete and I think he could make Maynard look frustrated and slow, especially in the championship rounds.

Can Maynard bully Edgar around enough to take the fight, though? While this fight may not be the kind to get your blood pumping, it will definitely be “interesting”, if not earth-shattering.

What is Nate Diaz thinking?

Diaz ran into a wall of sorts at lightweight, facing wrestlers who can keep him from taking them to where he has a decided advantage, while also going up against spry cardio-machines who could put the pressure on him and stay out of trouble.

Now, after a quality win at welterweight and what looks like a new lease on life, he takes the time to do what? Well, call out Gray Maynard, of course!

The same Maynard who earned a title shot that night, putting him about three losses away (or wins for Diaz) from a rematch making any kind of sense.

The same Maynard who had a sloppy boxing exhibition with Diaz that no one is in a hurry to see again.

Yeah…that makes sense.

I don’t see Diaz becoming a true title contender in either division, but there are more intriguing matchups for him at welterweight, and he already showed that he didn’t have what it took to get any momentum going at 155 pounds. Also, why he would really want to cut that much weight again is beyond me, but what do I know?

What’s next for Demian Maia? Who knows?

Maia, a former title contender at middleweight, took a firm sideways step with his effort against the game, but unheralded Mario Miranda. Maia isn’t getting a sniff of a title shot as long as Anderson Silva holds the middleweight title, of course.

So what’s next for him? I have no idea. If the UFC wanted to, another Maia win could put him in line to face Chael Sonnen, if Sonnen is able to finish the job in his rematch with Silva. It would make sense, since Maia tapped him out last year and Sonnen’s famously-porous submission defense will keep the drama present. I wouldn’t mind seeing Maia face Alan Belcher as originally planned. The problem is that there are tons of those “striker vs. grappler” matches you could make with Maia, and it’s all pretty played out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maia against a surprisingly-resurgent Chris Leben in order to give Maia a chance for a showcase win leading into a possible title shot…if Sonnen prevails. Otherwise…maybe a rematch with Marquardt? Does anyone want to even see that?

Joe Warren is the real deal

I harbor no ill will towards Joe Soto, but it is good to see Bellator Fighting Championship add another legitimate top ten-ish talent to their ranks, as Warren once again proved on Thursday that he has nearly limitless potential. Warren’s short MMA career has been an interesting one, as he came right out of the gate by upsetting Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto in his second pro fight.

However, each step of the way, there have been naysayers to make excuses or try to rationalize Warren’s quick success in the sport. It’s interesting that MMA fans feel the need to defend the sport’s honor by arguing against the talents of someone like Warren, or Brock Lesnar before him, when they are able to transition quickly and rather easily to MMA.

There have been enough failures in the effort to transition successful amateur wrestling, professional boxing, or even pro football careers to MMA that no one has to be worried that someone like Warren’s success will somehow hurt the sport’s legitimacy. The thing is, people like Warren are special athletes, and they do special things. It may sound obvious, but try telling that to the denizens of your average MMA forum.

I’m excited to see what is yet to come for Warren. While many fans groan in disappointment when a “newb” comes into the sport and does well, I think it’s great. It adds excitement to see someone step into the cage and to watch while having no real idea just how good they can be or what else they will be able to do as they continue to improve. As long as they are working hard to diversify their skills and are truly dedicated to the sport, there is no reason to be reluctant to embrace fighters like Warren. And with each passing fight, there are less possible reasons to doubt him, either.

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In the aforementioned Couture-Toney “fight”, we didn’t learn anything whatsoever that we didn’t already know, unless you count yourself among those who thought Toney had anything to offer athletics in general at this point in his life. Toney may have been an outstanding pro boxer, but he is well past his prime, has a lot of wear and tear on his body, and hasn’t taken particularly good care of himself.

He also didn’t have the slightest idea how to defend a takedown, as Couture was able to shoot from roughly 24 feet away, barely grasp Toney’s left heel with his right hand, and somehow still pull him down as Toney awkwardly slumped to the canvas. Toney looked more like he had suffered a heart attack than like a person who had failed to defend a takedown.

From then on, it was a foregone conclusion (well, it was that from the minute the fight was signed), as Couture immediately landed in the mount and took his sweet time dismantling him with his trademark rabbit punches while obviously looking for an arm triangle to finish the fight via submission. That he did, when locking it up with help from Toney himself, who kept tightening the hold while trying to loosen it, and when Couture moved to side mount, the fight was over, as Toney waved at the air to signal his reluctance to continue fighting.

That’s right, Toney didn’t even know how to tap out correctly.

In actual MMA news, Gray Maynard shrugged his way to a future title shot with an effective, if unexciting win over Kenny Florian. Maynard won by unanimous decision, dropping just one round on the three combined judges’ scorecards, while staying out of trouble during the standup and taking Maynard down before working a stifling top control game on the mat.

In the first round, Maynard didn’t bother with a takedown until inside of the last minute (apparently to “steal” the round, which is one of my least things about MMA), and with each passing round, he went for his takedown attempts sooner. Florian was unsuccessful in stopping them, and couldn’t get any meaningful offense in from his back, either, making the decision a no-brainer.

Demian Maia got back in the winning column, but didn’t gain any fans with his unanimous decision victory over Mario Miranda. In the fight, Maia was able to fully mount Miranda more than once, often for great lengths of time, but could not seem to find a way to finish a fighter whom everyone (including myself) expected would have no answer for him on the mat.

A couple of times, Maia set up obvious arm bar attempts from the mount painfully slowly, and both times Miranda was able to escape and take top position. For his part, Miranda didn’t take advantage of the limited time he had to stand and trade with Maia any more than Maia took advantage of his opportunities on the mat.

On the first bout of the main card, Nate Diaz and Marcus Davis got the night off to a deceptively good start with a quality brawl that ended memorably with Davis choosing to go unconscious rather than tap to a deep guillotine choke that came with just 58 seconds left in the third round. While Diaz pretty much outclassed Davis from the start wherever the fight went, Davis fought gamely as he always does and gave the fans a good show.

It was the main event, though, that this card will fortunately be remembered for, as we saw a true coming out party for Frankie Edgar, who solidified his lightweight title reign with a dominating performance over a tired and perplexed BJ Penn.

The phrase “passing of the torch” is used seemingly all the time, but last night’s fight was one of the few times when it actually fits, as a fighter who had only lost at lightweight twice in his entire career (once being to Edgar earlier this year) was beaten soundly at 155 pounds for the first time ever. Meanwhile, Edgar showed qualities that could lead to a nice title reign, despite his rather small size for the weight-class: ridiculous quickness for a lightweight, a determination to stick with his game plan, superb wrestling, near-endless cardio and great all-around skills.

Sure, the fight’s only truly tense moments came at the times when Penn was finally able to haul Edgar to the mat, or otherwise get him there. In the first round, Edgar was once all too happy to stand up out of Penn’s dangerous guard while Penn grabbed at him to prevent him from standing with the kind of desperation you would expect during an NFL game-saving tackle.

There was plenty of drama early in round four, however, when Penn got a quick takedown to start the round and quickly moved to mount. However, Edgar was able to get his guard back, then scramble to his feet shortly after, as Penn wasn’t able to do anything but try to keep him on his back, to no avail.

In the end, it was a clear decision victory that finished with all three judges giving Edgar a 50-45 nod- the same score that judge Doug Crosby famously gave the first fight to Edgar with earlier this year. This time, it was well deserved.

In preliminary action, Joe Lauzon brought some shine to the family name with a thoroughly dominating, aggressive performance that sent Gabe Ruediger likely packing for good, as he arm barred the weight-cutting specialist just two minutes into the first round of their fight. Lauzon looked very good, and the pay-per-view audience was lucky enough to get to see it both on the Spike TV preliminary fights special and as part of the pay-per-view itself.

See? That’s another thing that MMA has over boxing. Even a lackluster UFC event has at least a few good fights.

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Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

You won’t find a lot of macho types in the UFC, at least not in the respect of having to walk around 24 hours a day mean-mugging people or threatening to throw down with anyone and everyone over the smallest perceived slights. However, you have just that type of personality in Nate Diaz, the younger and less talented of the Diaz brothers. Meanwhile, Davis is a likeable guy who has worked his butt off to go from being a one-note boxer on “The Ultimate Fighter” to being a respectable all-around competitor.

This prediction is going to hurt.

Diaz wasn’t able to distinguish himself as a lightweight, but has fared well so far at welterweight, while Davis was once a fight or two from a title shot before stumbling in his last three fights, in which he has posted a 1-2 record. It would be great to see Davis reverse both trends with a knockout tonight, but sadly, I don’t see that happening.

As silly as Diaz looks when he puts on his tough guy act at the weigh-ins and awkwardly thrusts his skinny arms in his opponent’s faces, you have to give him his due in that he has a surprisingly difficult striking style to get around and a superb guard game. Both will give Davis trouble throughout this fight. Davis has only occasionally shown knockout power in his UFC tenure, and though he is the better technical striker here, he will struggle to get past Diaz’s reach throughout the fight.

Meanwhile, if Davis is enticed into securing a takedown, he will put himself in serious danger of a submission, as he does not have the tools to keep Diaz from locking up something nasty from off of his back. Having Diaz on top of him would be just as bad a situation, as Davis may be crafty on the mat, but he is sorely outclassed in that area for this fight.

Prediction: Diaz by submission

You know what, though? I’m always wrong on a few (and sometimes many more) fights, so I’m going to go against my initial instincts here. Diaz got outstruck by a sloppy Gray Maynard, so why can’t Davis do the same? The real key here is Davis keeping the bout standing, and I’ll bank on him to do so.

Prediction: Davis by decision

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

This fight, which will be for the next lightweight title shot, pits Boston’s own Kenny Florian against capable wrestler Gray Maynard. Maynard has had a run like few others in the UFC, winning seven fights in a row while running his overall record to 9-0. However, his reliance on decision victories and a straight-up ugly standup fight against Nate Diaz cost him the chance to take on BJ Penn, as Frankie Edgar was chosen instead.

That’s probably for the better, as Maynard wouldn’t have the speed to work the kind of fight Edgar did when he beat Penn. Meanwhile, Maynard will need to resist the urge to repeat his behavior with Florian, who is leagues beyond Maynard when it comes to technical striking. Florian would punish Maynard in short order if he chooses to stand and bang, using a mix of kicks to all areas of the body and pinpoint punches and elbows to combat Maynard’s predictable haymaker-based approach.

Will Maynard be wise enough to take this fight to the mat, though? Against Diaz, he didn’t, but Diaz has shown to have a much more aggressive guard game than Florian’s, and Florian has been controlled by good wrestlers in the past, such as Sean Sherk. Still, I will show faith in Florian’s game planning, improved takedown defense and ability to respond to what will likely be at least one or two takedowns by giving him the benefit of the doubt. He’s the better overall fighter, anyway.

Prediction: Florian by KO/TKO

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

It was our loss when an injury to Alan Belcher took him out of his fight with Maia, which would have given us a good look at what Belcher can do against a top-flight opponent. Still, we get a reasonable enough facsimile of that fight here, as Miranda must fight a strategy similar to what Belcher would have had to use in order to get the “W” here.

Miranda, like most fighters in the UFC’s middleweight division, will enjoy a nice advantage when standing with Maia, as Maia’s striking is still very much a work in progress. However, I don’t expect Maia to just stand and trade with Miranda for long, as Miranda will likely unleash some hellish leg kicks that will lend some urgency to Maia’s efforts to take the fight to the mat.

Maia is not one to really shoot in from a distance, and he will have to walk through Miranda’s strikes to close the distance here. Miranda is a good striker from close range, too, so Maia will have to be careful, yet aggressive in his pursuit of the takedown. If he does get it, though, it’s hard not to expect Maia to make short work of Miranda from there. There are few middleweights in the sport that can hang with Maia’s submission game, especially when he’s on top, and Miranda isn’t one of them.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

You know, I talked myself into giving Toney a shot here. Hey, Couture favors the clinch and dirty boxing, right? His last several fights have featured the UFC Hall of Famer simply leaning on opponents for great lengths of time to wear them down and earn favor with the judges, after all. However, Toney would much rather be clinching against the cage than defending double-leg takedowns, since he can land a punch here and there in the clinch.

Then, I saw Toney weigh in. Not only does he look fat, but he also seems to have trouble getting around. Couture may be an old guy, but Toney LOOKS like an old guy, and moves like one, too. This fight is his to lose. I think we see Couture rely more on shooting for takedowns than his usual clinch strategy, and once the fight hits the floor, it’s just up to Couture as far as how fast (and with what technique) he wants to finish Toney. What a silly fight.

Prediction: Couture by KO/TKO

Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn

Edgar is champion of the division now after being the first person since 2002 to beat Penn in his natural weight division (and the only person besides Jens Pulver ever to do so). He now faces the unenviable task of having to defeat Penn twice in a row to solidify his status as champion, since many fans and pundits alike were not so satisfied with the way Edgar won the first time.

Depending on what side of the fence you fall on, Edgar either pulled off a huge upset in their last bout or was the beneficiary of some friendly judging (Doug Crosby, I’m looking at you). If you favor power punches over sheer volume of strikes, you likely feel the same way. Regardless, though, the fight was close enough that neither man could truly cry foul, and to his credit, Penn did not complain about the outcome after the fight.

What’s clear is that if Penn does not want to have to stand next to a referee again wondering which way the chips will fall, he needs to change his approach to the fight. There’s always a chance that Penn could counter-punch his way to a KO or TKO, but that did not happen in 25 minutes of fighting the first time, so it’s not something to count on, by any means. I would hope to see a more aggressive Penn this time in terms of closing the distance and clinching up with Edgar.

In the clinch, Penn would be able to muscle Edgar around a bit (Edgar should really be at featherweight, not lightweight) and work with strong punches and dirty boxing. The goal, though, should be to get the fight to the mat, where Penn will be at a significant advantage. Perhaps Edgar will even help Penn out with that part of the fight by taking the Hawaiian down.

This time, I think that Penn will eventually work toward finding a hole in Edgar’s game, which most likely will take form on the mat. Penn knows that to reassume the throne, he needs to fight differently than last time, and I expect him to do so. Edgar is a fine fighter and a great talent, but Penn is on another level.

Prediction: Penn by submission

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