I wouldn’t exactly call myself Nostradamus for predicting a rollicking, wild brawl to start the bout. What did surprise me is that both men were visibly hurt by punches within the first round. I don’t know if I underestimated the considerable punching power of both men or overestimated the ability of both to withstand powerful shots (or a bit of both), but this fight presented a dynamic finish where both men seemed to get rocked within instants of one another.

After a prolonged clinch in the middle minutes of the round, Hendo appeared to be hurt as Fedor came forward aggressively with punches. Hendo, though alert, fell to his back against the cage, but as Fedor swarmed with more shots, Henderson underhooked Fedor’s near leg and escaped out the back door, then quickly landed an uppercut in a beautifully-performed sequence. Fedor was hurt pretty badly and as Hendo capitalized, Herb Dean quickly stepped in to stop the bout.

In his post-fight interview, Fedor was mum on the subject of retirement, saying that it would be “God’s will” that would decide his fate. He was more opinionated on the stoppage, which he did feel was a bit hasty. In Fedor’s defense, he did appear to be actively working to defend himself as Hendo was pulled off of him. However, when Dean initially made the decision to step in, Fedor was definitely hurt and in trouble, so it’s hard to fault the veteran referee for ending the bout.

In the night’s only title bout, Miesha Tate deftly ended a back-and-forth battle with Marloes Coenen with a beautiful arm triangle from side control in the fourth round to become the new Strikeforce Women’s Featherweight Champion. Tate had gotten takedowns in each of the four rounds, though Coenen had won at least one stanza with her great jiu-jitsu along the way.

In the closing sequence, Tate had assumed side control with her back to the cage and worked to get her head underneath Coenen’s far arm. Once she did so, she assumed knee-on-belly, then crossed over to mount and quickly to side control all within seconds to sink the hold in. Coenen fought off the submission for several seconds, but was forced to tap when she could not escape and could no longer fight off the hold. The win for Tate likely sets up a rematch between her and former champion Sarah Kaufmann (who beat Tate the first time they fought) in the future.

Tim Kennedy may have punched his ticket to another title opportunity against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza with a clear-cut decision win over the tough Robbie Lawler earlier in the night. Lawler showcased much-improved takedown defense throughout the fight, but Kennedy was still able to take him down and keep him there when it counted. When Lawler had a better opportunity to beat up on a tiring Kennedy late in the fight, he seemed gun-shy and a takedown in the last minute of the bout sealed the deal for Kennedy for once and for all.

In a very similar fight, Tyron Woodley beat Paul Daley by unanimous decision in the second televised bout of the event. Like Lawler, Daley showed much-improved takedown defense, but it still just wasn’t good enough as Woodley controlled Daley enough to win the unanimous decision. During the several minutes that the fight remained standing, Woodley held his own in the striking, as the threat of the takedown seemed to hurt Daley’s output early in the fight. Later on, Daley started to get the better of the striking, but started to favor knees that gave Woodley easy takedown attempts. Though Daley would stuff the takedowns, he would be stuck in the sprawl position with Woodley for moments at a time as precious seconds ticked off the clock. In the end, he ran out of time to put a hurting on Woodley, who remains undefeated.

In the first televised bout of the evening, Tarec Saffiedine did what most expected him to do, picking apart Scott Smith through three rounds en route to a unanimous decision win. Smith never really was able to dissuade Saffiedine from moving around and mixing up his strikes and never had the victorious fighter in danger. This one-sided bout showed that Smith’s regular strategy of just taking punishment while looking for a big shot is not only outdated, but is putting the career of a very fun fighter to watch in jeopardy.

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That aside, I suppose Fedor-Hendo should be a good scrap. I have no doubt that their styles will make for entertaining action, but it just doesn’t have that special something to really make me anticipate the bout. Relevance? I don’t know. Still, it’s a good card and we have nothing better to watch, anyway, so let’s get on with the preview!

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Scott Smith

Both fighters will hope to get on the winning track again in a fight that should be quite entertaining. Saffiedine was last seen getting laid on by Tyron Woodley in a fight that (spoiler alert!) looked a lot like Woodley’s bout tonight with Paul Daley will. Meanwhile, Smith has been stopped his last two times out, first by Cung Le and then in his welterweight debut against Daley.

Let’s sum this one up in a nutshell. You have a guy with good overall standup and a nice variety of weapons that uses combos well. Then, you have a guy with tons of heart but that doesn’t mind getting the crap beat out of him will looking for one big shot to end it. Oh, and the second guy is also fighting a weight class below where he should be and might not look very good as a result of being drained.

Pretty clear, right? And I’m sure you knew which guy was which, also. Saffiedine just has too much and Smith puts too much stock into landing the big killshot. It could happen as it has several times in the past, but Saffiedine is the sensible pick.

Prediction: Saffiedine by decision

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley

There’s only one thing I need to know here. Has Daley increased his takedown defense? No? He hasn’t? Well, then this is one of the more obvious picks one could ever be asked to make. On what planet does Woodley stupidly stand with Daley for more than 1.3 seconds before taking him down each and every round en route to an easy win? I don’t know, but it’s certainly not this planet, because that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

Could Daley land a big shot that changes the fight? Sure, but he’ll only have the briefest of windows to do so, because Woodley isn’t going to play with him. And as we saw against Josh Koscheck, Daley will likely be so worried about defending takedowns that he won’t even swing for the fences when he has the opportunity. That’s a mistake in my opinion, because he’s not going to be able to stop the takedowns, anyway. Why lose without ever having taken a real swing when your only hope is a KO?

The only reason to watch this one is to see if we get some more classic Daley antics as the fight goes on and he grows more and more frustrated. Woodley will wear Daley out and maybe finish him late with ground strikes.

Prediction: Woodley by KO/TKO

Tim Kennedy vs. Robbie Lawler

This is one of those matchups where you’re tempted to say “if the fight goes the distance, it favors fighter A, and if it doesn’t, fighter B probably wins.” Well, you might say that if you didn’t realize what a nonsensical thing that is to say. What kind of sense does that make, after all? The minute that the last second of the fifteenth minute ticks off, the one fighter becomes the favorite regardless of what has happened? If the other guy can knock out or submit the fighter A, why can’t he win a decision?

Anyway, Kennedy is what a lazy person like myself would call a “grinder”, mostly because we don’t want to come up with our own term. He’s going to look to close the distance and stay out of trouble against the heavy-handed Lawler while controlling him against the cage a la Randy Couture (“Handy” if you’re Brazilian). Lawler will, well…he’ll try to not let that happen, right? I mean, obviously.

In all seriousness, the problem with Kennedy’s likely game plan is that Lawler is big and strong enough to avoid being muscled around. He has good balance in standing clinch situations and is hard to toss to the mat from the clinch. Meanwhile, while he prefers standing and striking at distance, he has dangerous power in close, too. His defensive wrestling may likely negate any attempts of Kennedy to take the fight to the mat.

Which leads us to a dangerous fight for Kennedy where there is no real safe place for him to ply his trade. In that case, it’s just a matter of time.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Strikeforce Women’s Welterweight Championship
Marloes Coenen vs. Miesha Tate

Liz Carmouche’s loss is Tate’s gain in this fight, as there is a 100% chance that Tate will simply follow the blueprint that Carmouche laid in her fight with Coenen, where she was doing quite well before being submitted by a fourth-round triangle choke.

Tate will try not to get Carmouche’d in this one (or maybe “Sonnen’d” is better?) and I think she’ll have a better chance. For one, she is possibly a stronger wrestler and should be able to control Coenen’s hips better, especially in the later rounds. Also, I think that Tate will be justifiably cautious of Coenen’s submission game throughout the fight, which Carmouche obviously wasn’t as she got in a comfort zone and let her guard down in the later rounds.

Don’t expect to see much standing and striking, as both will be perfectly happy on the mat. Coenen would obviously rather be on top, but I don’t see much chance of that happening. Meanwhile, Tate will use strikes to allow her to set up deceptive, quick takedowns. From there, it’s a question of whether she can get through the fight without being subbed. I think she can and she’ll win by late TKO.

Prediction: Tate by KO/TKO

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson

You hear the “two legends” stuff all the time, but this one is very much the real thing, as two first ballot Hall of Famers (though not UFC Hall of Famers, since neither are good buddies of Dana White) square off tonight.

At first glance, this is a tough fight to call. After all, the two fight basically identically, at least when the fight is standing. Both even like to use the clinch in similar ways, striking ably and using leverage for throws and clinch takedowns. On the mat, there are some differences as Fedor has a pretty slick submission game that Hendo lacks, but Henderson is more than capable of fending off submissions after all of his years in the sport.

Where this one may differ in terms of people’s predictions will be when asking two questions: “How much does Fedor have left in him?” and “How much will the size difference matter?”

Now, Fedor hasn’t looked too good in his last two fights, but I wonder if people aren’t writing him off too soon. All this retirement talk seems very hasty when one fight consisted of just poor grappling on Fedor’s part and the other was just Fedor getting beaten at his own game by a much bigger opponent. I’m not saying the losses don’t mean anything, but they don’t mean he doesn’t have anything left to offer.

What about the size factor? Well, we all know Hendo fears no man, but five of his eight career losses have come against bigger opponents. Hendo is certainly one of the greatest middleweight MMA fighters of all-time, but when he’s chosen to step up in weight he has had trouble against elite competition such as the Nogueira brothers, “Rampage” Jackson and years ago, Wanderlei Silva.

Try as I can, I don’t really see either fighter rocking the other. It’s a possibility with the wild swinging style that both love and stubbornly stick to, but both have pretty solid chins so it doesn’t seem like the smartest pick. Where we may see a difference is in terms of who can control the other man and who can put everything together better. Even that is hard to call, but I’d give a slight edge to Fedor there. To be honest, this is one of the toughest fights of the year so far to pick. I’ll go with Fedor, because I think he’s a better heavyweight than Hendo. Seems logical, right?

Prediction: Fedor by decision

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Will “Feijao” bounce back, and who should face Hendo next?

Feijao had just made his mark in a top-heavy Strikeforce light heavyweight division that he wasn’t a real strong factor in beforehand. After just two straight wins against Antwain Britt and Aaron Rosa, Feijao was given the opportunity to fight the talented (but green) “King Mo” Lawal. King Mo found Feijao to be a tough nut to crack, and Feijao left the fight with the belt and a greatly increased status within the sport.

I think Feijao will continue to be relevant in the division, but in a way, that’s less of a compliment to him and more of an indictment of Strikeforce’s division, which has some good talent at the top but a large gap between its top five fighters and the rest of its light heavyweights.

Honestly, I don’t agree with having Gegard Mousasi face Mike Kyle to see who gets the next crack at Henderson, anyway. When you only have a handful of legitimate contenders (Hendo, Mousasi, King Mo, Feijao and Renato “Babalu” Sobral) and many of them have faced one another already, you need to conserve some matchups while you build up some fresh contenders or even look outside of the organization for fresh talent (Keith Jardine may not be “fresh”, but he would at least be talent, right?).

Why not give Kyle the shot now? He hasn’t really earned it, but neither had Feijao. Kyle is unlikely to beat Mousasi, and just as unlikely to beat the other top light heavyweights in order to earn a shot in the future. I’d simply put on an entertaining slugfest between him and Henderson now, knowing that Mousasi will always be lingering in range of title contention, anyway.

Coenen shows heart, weaknesses in win

You have to wonder how Miesha Tate felt when she was watching Marloes Coenen and Liz Carmouche square off on Saturday night. Did she salivate a little bit at the weaknesses that Coenen showed during the fight; weaknesses that play right into how Tate likes to fight? Did she shake her head and curse her bad fortune, feeling that she could have finished what Carmouche started in the fight? I’m guessing it was probably a bit of both.

I was impressed with Coenen’s heart and determination in the fight. It’s rare to see someone mounted so often and for so long, only to secure an improbable comeback victory the way that she did. This is where a lesser writer would spout off something about the “heart of a champion” or something similarly barfy, by the way.

Unfortunately, Coenen also showed many weak areas that could be exploited by Tate or other future opponents. Coenen is a strange fighter, in a way. She sometimes looks razor sharp on the mat, especially when working for submissions from the guard. Other times, she looks woefully out of sorts, allowing opponents to improve their position and not being able to get out of bad spots herself. When Carmouche kept mounting Coenen extremely high, making herself vulnerable to be swept or to lose her advantageous position, I kept thinking, “Coenen doesn’t have any idea what to do here?!?” It seems strange that someone who has obviously spent so much time on the mat was reduced to squirming underneath Carmouche for much of the fight.

It will be interesting to see if her next opponent immediately takes her down to exploit some of the things we all saw in that fight, even though Coenen can also be extremely dangerous from her back, too. Either way, it will be interesting to see how Coenen comes back from her rather lackluster, though (pardon me for this) ballsy performance.

Kennedy-Manhoef plays out the only way that it could

With as unpredictable as MMA is, it’s almost comforting when a fight goes down exactly the way that you would imagine it would. How else could it happen, after all? Manhoef knew he had no chance if the fight hit the mat; his jiu-jitsu game is historically bad. They need to have a stat for submissions suffered per minute of fighting on the mat, I am 100% sure Manhoef would be the all-time leader. It’s not as if Kennedy is Jacare on the ground, and he sliced through Manhoef’s horrid defensive attempts with ease.

Of course, as bad as he looked on his back, Manhoef looked just as good standing up. I only wish he had taken a few more chances while the fight was vertical in order to give himself a shot at winning. I always feel that way when a standup fighter is overly cautious against a better grappler; I know you don’t want to get taken down, but you can’t let the fight end without ever having thrown some strikes? Manhoef eventually became active and showed better takedown defense than usual, but he was still too cautious in the early going for my taste.

Where are the prelims?

I’m continually confused by Strikeforce and/or Showtime’s decision not to air preliminary fights when time permits. There wasn’t a lot of leftover time on Saturday night, but there have been plenty of Strikeforce events that ended around an hour early and simply stopped rather than showing fans any preliminary fights.

Now, Strikeforce does tend to fill their undercards with local fighters or fighters that aren’t really notable for having accomplished much in the sport, but surely the organization could have shown UFC veteran Jorge Gurgel winning by guillotine choke in 44 seconds over Billy Vaughan. It’d be nice to see Strikeforce take advantage of the exposure that younger fighters could get by actually filling their cards with young talent or fighters they intend to keep instead of $2,000-to-fight local fighters…and then actually showing the fights when they can.

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Billy Evangelista vs. Jorge Masvidal

MMA 101: Win-loss records can be very deceiving.

In a sport where two of the greatest fighters ever (Randy Couture and BJ Penn) sport utterly pedestrian records of 19-10 and 16-7-2, respectively, it should be a given by now. Yet, it’s still the temptation to discount veterans like Masvidal against relatively unproven prospects like Evangelista who have sparkling records (in Evangelista’s case, 11-0).

Look closer, though. Evangelista’s biggest wins are against Nam Phan (by split decision) and Jorge Gurgel (in a “good enough, but not great” performance). Then there’s Masvidal, who has fought Paul Daley, Yves Edwards, Joe Lauzon and Raphael Assuncao, among others. Also, while Masvidal has the edge in experience, he’s only 26 years old. Who’s the prospect here, again?

I kid, but seriously, Evangelista has his hands full here. Masvidal is definitely a better striker and is good everywhere else, too. One of the biggest problems I foresee in this fight for Evangelista is that he will likely be content to have an extended standup battle with Masvidal, which is a horrible idea. I think Masvidal takes this one and Evangelista takes a step back as a result.

Prediction: Masvidal by KO/TKO

Tim Kennedy vs. Melvin Manhoef

The last time we saw Manhoef, he was absolutely lighting up Robbie Lawler with leg kicks before being KO’ed out of nowhere by a big right hand and a follow-up shot on the mat from his hard-hitting opponent. Kennedy, meanwhile, fared better but still lost in his bid to unseat middleweight champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza from his throne.

Clearly, Manhoef wants to keep his distance. This is especially true because he could quickly change the complexion of the whole fight with his punishing leg kicks while at range. While many fighters stay away from leg kicks against fighters who want to take them down, nearly everyone Manhoef has fought in his MMA career has wanted to take him down, so it’s nothing new for him. He sets up and times his kicks well enough to avoid having them caught or getting taken down after attempting them, and his very fast with the technique, to boot.

If Kennedy is able to close the distance, this is a crystal clear instance where grinding out the first round or two makes perfect sense. Manhoef tends to tire quickly when grappling and often comes out with guns blazing, only to fade if he doesn’t connect early on. Kennedy needs to stay out of trouble in the first round and start going to work after that. I think that’s what he’ll do, surviving a scary moment or two in order to wear down and eventually submit Manhoef.

Prediction: Kennedy by submission

Strikeforce Women’s Welterweight Championship Bout
Marloes Coenen (champion) vs. Liz Carmouche

Carmouche is a late substitution for original challenger Miesha Tate, who is unable to participate due to a knee injury. However, it won’t be a huge adjustment for Coenen, as Carmouche figures to fight very similarly to how Tate would have- aggressively with with a penchant for takedowns.

Who wins the striking battle is anyone’s guess and could be a real adventure in and of itself, but I’m banking on this fight hitting the mat early and often. That’s where the real action will take place, as Carmouche will try to stay active and do damage while avoiding the considerable danger of Coenen’s ground game.

In a three-round fight, I may be more likely to give Carmouche a shot, since she could stay active and push the action for a close decision victory. However, In a five-rounder, I don’t see Carmouche’s cardio holding up well (even if she insists that she’s always in shape, which is probably fairly accurate). Furthermore, if she is in Coenen’s guard for the better part of 25 minutes, Coenen is going to exploit an opportunity at some point.

Carmouche may do some damage and may have her moments standing, but her best chance for victory (a KO or TKO stoppage) is unlikely, in my view. Coenen is too crafty and too good to allow a costly mistake or lapse of defense on the mat to cost her the title she worked so hard to earn.

Prediction: Coenen by submission

Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (champion) vs. Dan Henderson

Feijao won the title in an upset victory over the talented MMA newbie “King Mo” Lawal, and is finally making his first defense just over six months later. While Feijao doesn’t do any one thing in amazing fashion, he’s a solid fighter with the tenacity to expose any moments of indecision or mistakes that his opponents may commit. Will that be enough to defeat someone like Dan Henderson?

The first problem you’ll notice is that Henderson is just plain better. Like, at everything. He’s a good enough striker, though he’s prone to getting into slugfests, and he has explosive power, particularly in his right hand. He has excellent offensive and defensive wrestling, and his jiu jitsu is capable enough should he end up in a bad spot or have to fend off submission attempts from an opponent’s guard. On top of that, his cardio is usually very good, particularly when he fights at 205 pounds, which is a better weight class for him as he continues to age.

Against Jake Shields, he may have lost but he showcased some very good scrambling and wrestling earlier, while also face-planting Shields with a right hand that I’m still amazed didn’t knock the champ out. Against Feijao, he’ll have the edge throughout the bout, and it’s hard to imagine Feijao finishing him or out-performing him in a five-round fight. Henderson is just too good, and he’ll be back on top after this one.

Prediction: Henderson by KO/TKO

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Should Diaz-Miller be next on tap?

So, although matchmaker extraordinaire Mauro Ranallo thinks we need to see Diaz-Noons again, it appears that Nick Diaz and Jason “Mayhem” Miller feel a bit differently. They reportedly had yet another altercation as Diaz was walking to the post-fight press conference, which will undoubtedly only increase the demand for a fight between the two from fans who love grudge matches, Showtime executives, and the fighters themselves. This has about a 99% chance of being Diaz’s next fight.

A lot of people think that Diaz should be doing other things, such as defending his title. However, this is one situation where I disagree. In the UFC, each division has several fighters who could be legitimate title contenders at any given point, and they need to have their champs fighting the best guys, at least for the sake of the integrity of the titles themselves…whatever that means.

However, Strikeforce is a much different situation, particularly in the welterweight division. At heavyweight and middleweight, Strikeforce’s two strongest divisions, there are a few good contenders that are waiting in line for title shots, but not welterweight. I don’t think it hurts anything to have Diaz go up in weight to settle the score with Miller. If Miller wins, it gives him a win over a legit opponent in a big name fight, which could give him a nice bump. A Diaz win further legitimizes the already-respected Diaz, especially since he moves up in weight for the fight.

Lastly, for the camp that says, “Why reward Miller for his post-fight antics following the Shields-Henderson fight?”, I say “Pffffffffffffffffffffffbbbbbbbbbbbttttttttttttt.” Lighten up, you fun haters. It’s a grudge match between two talented fighters…what’s not to like? Plus, let’s not *cough Kimbo Slice cough* act like *cough Jose Canseco cough* we’re in *cough James Toney cough* a sport where *cough Herschel Walker cough* only the best, *cough Gilbert Yvel cough* most professional fighters *cough Phil Baroni cough* get promotional pushes. To ignore the value of the grudge match or the role of the fighter who will do anything to get attention is to turn your back on what a lot of this sport has always been about. Yeah, yeah, it’s a “human chess match” between “the best athletes in the world” and all that, but it’s still two dudes fighting in a cage.

What’s this…styles really make fights?

Is anyone still amazed by how supposed jiu-jitsu stylist (I say “supposed” because of his preference for striking) Nick Diaz out-struck KJ Noons? I mean, KJ Noons is a real boxer, people. I was told all about it roughly 70 times over the last few Noons fights on Showtime.

Come on, though. Noons likes to slug it out, and when he’s not lacing up the ginormous gloves for a boxing match he seems to take a fairly carefree (read: not bothering with head movement) approach. Diaz, on the other hand, uses nice, straight punches, isn’t worried about knocking anybody out and uses his combination of medium-force punches at a high volume and great cardio to stay in his opponent’s faces all night. This fight was practically tailor-made for him, barring Noons landing a kill shot out of the blue.

The value of submissions

Submissions may be the best part of MMA. There simply is no quicker type of momentum change than someone snatching up an arm or cinching in a choke out of the blue to turn a dire situation into an instant win. Outside of the rare “eyes closed, swinging for the fences” punch when someone is in trouble, there is little in combat sports or any sports in general that compares to a quick submission.

Look at the fight between Sarah Kaufman and Marloes Coenen. While Kaufman wasn’t landing anything particularly threatening, it’s hard to deny the ages-old reaction to seeing one fighter postured up, striking away at another who is stuck on his or her back. Kaufman, who said she felt like she was putting Coenen in trouble, was in command one moment and tapping frantically the next, as Coenen sunk in an extremely deep arm bar. It was a great finish, though not what Kaufman had in mind, and in the end is great for women’s MMA in general.

Oh, and props to Kaufman for saying in interviews after the fight that she didn’t think Coenen meant anything by holding the arm bar until the referee (belatedly) intervened. I saw her saying that it was “okay” and “fine” to Coenen after the fight, but many fighters seem to squash beefs immediately after a fight, only to throw their opponent under the bus to the media minutes or hours later. Kaufman didn’t follow that trend, and I’m impressed.

Quick Shots

–You have to hate when a fight raises the types of questions that Josh Thomson vs. Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante did. You want to give Thomson props for the win, but there’s so many asterisks and questions involved. First off, the decision was razor-thin and at least one judge watched it with her eyes closed for a sizable portion of the proceedings. Then, you don’t know whether JZ was really back to top form or not, especially since Thomson admitted that he had the worst camp of his career before the fight. Was it a depleted fighter beating an erratic talent? Should Thomson get extra credit for hanging with JZ after a crappy camp? I really don’t know.

–I know I should say something about Tyron Woodley, but what do you want me to say, really? He swarmed and stopped Andre Galvao. It’s a nice win for a fighter at Woodley’s point in his career, but it doesn’t prove that he’s the next best thing or anything. I will be excited to see Woodley fight again (especially if there’s another slight step up in competition), but I generally take a practical approach when considering up-and-coming fighters. I want to see quality wins against top opposition. That’s why you won’t find Jon Jones in my top ten yet.

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The not-so long awaited rematch between Nick Diaz and KJ Noons was a solid fight (though not one of the best MMA title fights ever, as Mauro Ranallo announced after apparently using a lot of hallucinogenic drugs) most notable for the brawling and consistent trash talk between the two fighters.

The two talked almost from the get-go, and it was nothing new coming from Diaz, who has talked trash during fights with everyone from Robbie Lawler to Frank Shamrock. However, it was a bit surprising to see Noons get into the action, even verbally rubbing it in when he cut Diaz (the last fight ended with a doctor’s stoppage due to a cut on Diaz’s face).

In the end, Diaz’s always-sneaky power and nice mixing of strikes to the head and body prevailed, as he took a unanimous decision by scores of 48-47, 49-47, 49-46. Afterwards, Diaz said he was better in every facet of the game than Noons and even said he’d beat Noons in a straight-up boxing match. Noons undoubtedly would not agree, but he had little to say since he wasn’t in the best position to argue after soundly losing a bout that almost entirely took place on the feet.

In what may have been a fight for a title shot, Josh Thomson squeaked out a very close decision against Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante that many will think he should have lost. The first round could have gone either way, the second was definitely Thomson, and the third was definitely JZ’s, but that didn’t stop one utterly clueless judge from scoring the bout 30-27 in favor of Thomson.

Either way, the horribly-scored third round didn’t really matter, since even a more realistic scorecard from the third judge would have resulted in the same decision in the end. The fight itself was very competitive, and Thomson would have likely lost a split decision if he hadn’t closed out the first round with a very tight arm triangle before running out of time. Cavalcante looked okay, but Thomson looked a bit less energetic than usual after what was said to be a rough training camp.

Sarah Kaufman was unhappy for a couple of reasons after her fight with Marloes Coenen. The first reason, of course, would be that she may have been on her way to a decision win before getting too aggressive on the mat and punching her way into a submission loss via arm bar. The second reason is that she obviously believed that Coenen held the arm bar for too long after she tapped. Coenen seemed to opt to wait until the referee physically stepped in to release the hold, which many Brazilian fighters choose to do. Kaufman immediately complained about the situation, though Coenen apologized profusely and Kaufman appeared to accept her apology.

Finally, Tyron Woodley may have fast-tracked himself for a shot at Nick Diaz’s welterweight title after a win over Andre Galvao. In just under two minutes of the first round, Woodley easily stopped Galvao’s takedown attempts and punished him with punches whenever possible. The stoppage came after another failed takedown and two landed punches by Woodley. It may have been a bit early, but Galvao, who tasted Woodley’s power early and didn’t appear to like it, didn’t argue the stoppage at all after the fight was over.

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Nick Diaz: Elite Striker?

One of the more interesting things to observe after Saturday’s events was the many MMA writers and fans that were scrambling to explain how Nick Diaz could dominate yet another striker that was supposedly more skilled than he is.  The best theory is that MMA simply doesn’t have great strikers, which is why Diaz is able to perplex opponent after opponent with his high-volume style.  Of course, this theory was purported by someone who regularly refers to particular fighters as great strikers, so you can try to figure that one out.

OK, one time can be an upset.  A couple of times can still be luck.  However, Diaz has stood with the likes of Robbie Lawler, Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith and now Marius Zaromskis and not only held his own, but dominated his opponents en route to winning the fight.  Sure, there are other great strikers at 170 that Diaz has not had the opportunity to face, and as such, questions remain.  (How would Diaz handle the boxing of Paul Daley or the blistering kicks of Thiago Alves?)  However, it is probably time to just give Diaz his due.  Whether his head movement is great or his footwork is textbook or not, this guy regularly makes good strikers look silly and confused in his fights.  To me, that’s the most important part of being a great striker.

KO of the Year in January?

Anyone looking to win knockout of the year (or even comeback of the year) has an uphill battle ahead of them after Robbie Lawler’s ridiculous dispatching of Melvin Manhoef.  I can’t immediately recall a fight where a fighter lands just one strike while being absolutely blasted with leg kicks the likes of what Manhoef was landing, only to land a knockout punch and a follow-up shot on the ground to bring it all to an end.  That’s right: Lawler landed three strikes during the fight, two of which were part of the knockout.

Lawler looked to be in huge trouble just before the big right hand landed to start Manhoef’s downfall.  His lead leg was literally flying out from under him and up in the air with each kick of Manhoef’s, and Lawler himself looked understandably concerned.  In pulling himself together and timing his right hand perfectly when Manhoef dropped his hands to aggressively pursue the finish, Lawler showed equal parts determination, heart and skill.  At the same time, how can you not feel a bit bad for Manhoef?  This guy was absolutely lighting up Lawler and looking great before getting a little careless.  Sure, it’s MMA and you can’t let up for even a second, but it was still definitely an unfortunate turn of events for Manhoef.

On Bobby Lashley and Early Stoppages

Actually, that heading is a bit misleading, as there really isn’t much to say about Bobby Lashley after his expected decimation of the overwhelmed and outclassed Wes Sims.  Okay, now let’s get Lashley a real test, please.  That’s about it.

In regards to the stoppage, though: yes, it was early.  It was early if the definition of a good stoppage is “when a fighter can’t continue and is in great danger if the fight isn’t stopped”.  In that case, I guess Sims would have a legitimate beef.  The thing is, not all early stoppages are created equally.  There’s a big difference between what we saw at the end of Lashley-Sims and an early stoppage where a fighter momentarily gets in a bad spot in an otherwise competitive fight.  Make no mistake about it, while the stoppage may have been early, the outcome of the fight was not altered, except for the ending time of the bout.

When Sims was playing the role of “screwed over combat athlete” like so many in his position have in the past, I wanted to get in the cage and ask him, “Okay, so it was an early stoppage.  Now, please tell me what ingenious strategy you were just about to utilize when the mean old ref stopped your fight too early?  Exactly what was your plan to escape after giving up your back and flattening yourself out with a brutally strong, 250-lb. wrestler on top of you, pounding away?”

People tend to get too worked up about early stoppages.  I don’t like to see them, either, but if it’s in the variety like what we saw in Lashley-Sims, it doesn’t bother me too much.  Like I said, that fight ended up the way it was going to, anyway.  How much longer could Sims have really survived in that position?  Not much.  What were his chances of reversing the position, anyway?  Not good.  In the end, we have to let the athletes determine the outcome, but at some point an athlete has to stop throwing the ref under the bus and realize that the stoppage was also their fault, and that they clearly weren’t anywhere close to winning the fight anyway.

Quick Shots

– What can be said about Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos at this point?  I’ll give credit to Marloes Coenen for being a very game opponent who didn’t look out of place in the fight at any point.  Cyborg just eventually overwhelmed her over the course of the bout.  Still, Coenen will be back, and I wouldn’t mind a rematch at some point.

As for what’s next, it’s kind of hard to tell.  One of the problems with Strikeforce’s women’s division is that it is almost entirely comprised of title fights.  Take Coenen for example- she fought on one Strikeforce show before her title shot, and it wasn’t televised.  It makes it a bit hard to get excited about the next challenger coming down the pipe.

– Let me preface this last bit with a disclaimer.  I have no problem with Herschel Walker, and I think he’s a phenomenal athlete that’s in amazing shape for his age.  What I’m about to complain about has nothing really to do with him personally.  However, I can’t be the only person who was absolutely annoyed with the way Walker’s fight with Greg Nagy was handled by the broadcast team.  For the entire fight, I got to hear them drool over Walker performing basic fundamentals of the sport against a guy who has been training for a year and a half, with no background in any martial arts previous to that point.

It’s not Walker’s fault that he was paired up with Nagy.  But come on.  Nagy was absolutely overwhelmed by and unprepared for the experience of fighting in Strikeforce in his third pro fight.  Unlike Walker, Nagy never competed in, well, anything before thousands of people before.  No offense to Nagy, but he also (like most of us) is not the type of natural athlete that Walker is, even at 47 years old.  Combine that with the fact that Walker was absolutely shredded at 214 pounds, and Nagy appeared to be sporting a healthy amount of, um, “extra weight” at 210 pounds, and this was certainly not something to be in awe of.

If the accomplishment is that great, it doesn’t need to be oversold by the commentators, anyway.  I swear, I felt like I was watching professional wresting for a minute there with the way that Mauro Ranallo and company were gushing over every little thing that Walker did.

As for Walker himself: good for him.  I don’t fault him for fighting or Strikeforce for putting him on television, but let’s not treat the viewers like idiots, guys.  Watching an athlete the likes of Walker control a scared and undersized fellow newbie on the ground is not something that warrants the kind of hyperbole we were getting on Saturday night.

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Sure, we’re watching a former NFL running back and a current professional wrestler in action, but entertainment is entertainment, right?  Here’s a breakdown of the main card fights, along with some predictions that you probably shouldn’t trust enough to put money on…just saying.

Herschel Walker vs. Greg Nagy

First of all, before I get started, let me point out the ridiculousness of trying to pick a winner in a fight between a 47-year old former NFL running back with no professional fights (and a Tae Kwon Do background) and an unknown fighter with two professional fights, neither of which can be found for viewing purposes.

So, here’s what I’m going on.  Nagy has no wrestling experience (not even in high school) and says he just started training a year and a half ago.  He also has said he’d like to fight at 185, and weighed in at a rather soft-looking 210 pounds, while his opponent was a chiseled (at 47 years old, mind you) 214 and would probably have a little trouble making 205, even.  In that case, I’ll go with Walker based on size, athleticism and experience with performing under pressure.  I think the scope of the event and size difference will be enough in a fight between two very inexperienced fighters.  Of course, who can say for sure?  How about I just throw my hands up and wait for the impending slop-fest that this fight will likely be?

Prediction: Walker by KO/TKO (I guess)

Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

Ah, now this is more like it.  Two relatively well-known commodities with rather obvious game plans.  Lashley will look to take Sims to the mat and grind him into a paste-like substance, and Sims will look to…hmm…what, exactly?

Sims is far from having elite striking, and his submission skills are just serviceable, both offensively and defensively.  He trains out of a wrestling-based camp, but doesn’t have the better wrestling here.  I’m not sure how he expects to win this fight.  I like Sims and think he’s a funny guy, but he was picked for a reason, and it’s great matchmaking by Strikeforce to ensure that Lashley fights a game opponent who won’t give up easily, but also won’t pose much of a threat to finish.  That doesn’t mean this will be a squash for sure, though: Sims will do what it takes to survive, but I can’t see him finishing Lashley or doing well enough to take a decision, even if Lashley isn’t able to put him away and ends up gassing midway through the fight.

Prediction: Lashley by KO/TKO

Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef

Here’s another fight with crystal-clear objectives for each fighter.  Lawler loves to strike, but will be in the cage with one of the few fighters in the world at his weight who can pose a serious threat to him in the standup realm.  Meanwhile, Manhoef readily admits before every fight that he is in trouble if the action hits the mat.

The question here is whether Lawler will test the waters and slug it out with Manhoef.  Lawler is not known for being a dominating wrestler, but he does have good takedowns and his control on the ground is excellent.  Combined with his powerful punches and elbows from the top position, it’s clear to everyone that a quick takedown is the smartest move for Lawler…but is it clear to him?

I think it is.  Lawler got ahead of himself and made a slight mistake in his last fight (against Jake Shields) and paid for it with a quick loss, which he has no doubt thought about quite often since then.  I think tactics will be at the forefront of Lawler’s mind tomorrow night as a result, and I expect a smart use of takedowns throughout the fight from Robbie.  This doesn’t bode well for Manhoef, who can knock out anybody in MMA at literally any weight (ask Mark Hunt, who regularly fights at more than 100 pounds heavier than Manhoef) but struggles mightily while pinned to the mat by his opponents.  I believe that Lawler will take Manhoef to the ground and pound him out at some point.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos vs. Marloes Coenen

We all wondered what would become of the women’s division if the lovely, charismatic Gina Carano faltered in her bout against Cyborg.  Well, tomorrow night we will start to find out.  Will the public respond to female fighters who are just as skilled as Carano, but not as likely to star in a major motion picture or grace the pages of Maxim?

Either way, the public’s reception of a Gina-less women’s title bout has nothing to do with the fight itself, which should be a good one.  We all know Cyborg’s game by now: she simply destroys whatever is in front of her, or at least attempts to do so until the fight is over.  Meanwhile, we have seen much less of Coenen, who boasts a very good submission game and competent stand-up skills, to boot.

I do wonder if Coenen will respond well to the intensity that Cyborg will bring right from the opening bell.  Coenen has said that she’s confident in her striking, but even a polished striker (like Gina Carano) can easily be overwhelmed simple by the volume and power of shots that Cyborg fires off.  Furthermore, I don’t foresee Coenen easily taking Cyborg down, so I’m not expecting her jiu-jitsu skills to affect the fight much.

Prediction: Santos by KO/TKO

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis

While MMA fans often get knocked for prefering stand-up exchanges to the subtleties of the ground game, fighters often become just as enamored with trying their hand at striking instead of sticking to their strengths.  Diaz is one of many great submission artists and/or wrestlers that has foregone their best skills many times in favor of slugging it out.  His successes against some pretty good strikers, including Frank Shamrock, Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith, have only reinforced the bad habit of duking it out instead of getting some mileage out of that black belt of his.

Diaz has a style that uses an incredible quantity of punches that often don’t appear to landing with a lot of power, along with a good reach that helps him to stay outside of the range of harder hitting opponents that utilize looping punches.  The problem is that he will be facing a bonafide striker tomorrow- one who can use high kicks more effectively than anyone else in MMA right now.  Marius Zaromskis will have one objective- to keep the fight standing and mix his deadly high kicks into a variety of combinations to keep Diaz guessing before putting him away for good.

The thing is, Diaz will likely make part of Zaromskis’ plan very easy to follow through with.  Diaz chose to stand with Lawler, he chose to stand with Takanori Gomi, and I expect him to choose to stand with Zaromskis.  If he gets tagged, will he change his thinking?  Probably, but what’s the likelihood of Diaz even surviving a big mistake long enough to adjust his strategy?  This fight plays out similarly to Lawler-Manhoef in that it’s all about whether Diaz can overcome his urge to strike with his opponent in order to use his best skills to help him win the fight.  I don’t think Diaz will have the self-control to do that, and it will cost him.

Prediction: Zaromskis by KO/TKO