More dubious was the disappointing trend toward head-scratching scorecards and awful referee standups throughout the night, though. Here are my thoughts about Strikeforce’s latest effort, including the efforts of the (over)paid officials.

What did we learn?

A great part of following MMA is learning more about what fighters are capable of, seeing them evolve and using that information to forecast future matchups and performances. To that end, Strikeforce: Rockhold vs. Jardine wasn’t very helpful.

We knew that King Mo could hit like a truck. We knew that a solid punch could put Keith Jardine away. We knew that Adlan Amagov would be playing a deadly game by standing in front of Robbie Lawler. Outside of entertainment value, the night wasn’t very valuable as most of it went down as expected.

We did get a glimpse of how the night’s underdogs would hold up under the bright lights and big pressure, however. Jordan Mein and Tyler Stinson gave fairly good performances, while Gian Villante kept some momentum going on the undercard. Adlan Amagov and Lorenz Larkin, however, didn’t impress. As always, it could be that neither will ever make the leap to a higher level of status in the sport, or it could be that they just weren’t ready for their respective tests on Saturday night. At the very least, the latter is clearly true.

Another awful night of judging and refereeing

Fighters train hard and their livelihood often depends on what happens in the cage. Because of that, they deserve judging and refereeing that does not affect what happens in their fights, but instead reflects what happens.

When referees stand up fights for no good reason, it has several effects. It makes both fighters think that they have to work at a quicker pace on the mat, even if they were already working hard enough previously. This means more gambles, more taking chances, more aggression that can lead to a sweep, an opponent standing up, or being caught in a submission. Then, there’s the more obvious effect of giving the bottom man a chance to get out of a precarious position without having to actually stand up on his own. If that fighter is a better striker than the top man, a bad standup shows nothing less than favoritism toward the bottom fighter.

If you’re saying, “Hey, more action, more aggression, better fights. I’m all for it,” think again. It’s not about pushing the pace. It’s about the referee influencing the result of the fight. Standups are there to prevent stalling. They are not there to give someone a time limit within which to attack from the guard, or any other position. If you’re actively punching, you don’t need to be stood up, whether you bother to pass the guard or not. Standups sure as hell aren’t there to allow referees to keep fans interested or to prevent them from becoming bored.

Someone didn’t give Steve “Schteve” Mazzagatti that information. His standup in the third round of the fight between Tarec Saffiedine and Tyler Stinson was simply awful. Saffiedine was working and not only controlling the round, but frustrating Stinson and inflicting damage upon them. Mazzagatti chose to stand up the fight with about a minute and a half left, and a gleefully grateful Stinson responded by tooling Saffiedine up a bit standing up to finish the round and the fight. Kim Winslow also showed poor timing, standing up King Mo Lawal with a minute left in the first round, apparently to give the “striker”, Lorenz Larkin, a chance to get something going before the end of the round. Larkin had been completely overwhelmed by King Mo previous to the gift standup.

The Mazzagatti standup almost gave Stinson the fight, as judge Lester Griffin gave Stinson the nod with an unfathomable 29-28 scorecard, making the bout a split decision win for Saffiedine instead of a deserved unanimous decision win. Was he swayed by the standup? Of course. There’s no way that even Stinson’s own mother would score that round for Stinson if Saffiedine was allowed to continue pounding away from the top for the rest of the third round.

That doesn’t excuse the awful scorecard, though. Should an advantage in 1:30 of standup mean more than 3:30 of control and damage on the mat from the other fighter? Not according to the judging criteria, which instructs judges to weigh the portion of the fight that consumes most of the round more heavily. Seventy percent of that round took place on the mat, and Saffiedine dominated it. He wasn’t hurt badly during the standup portion, either. Stinson landed eight strikes to Saffiedine’s 63 in the third round, by the way.

Almost as bad was Glenn Towbridge’s 29-28 scorecard in favor of Jordan Mein, which made Tyron Woodley’s extremely clear win over Mein a split decision. Fortunately, enough judges got it pretty much right that Woodley and Saffiedine still got the wins they deserved. James Terry, who fought on the prelims, was not so lucky. Nah-Shon Burrell was granted the victory on both Marcos Rosales’ and Glenn Towbridge’s (imagine that) scorecards. Towbridge clearly gives the benefit of the doubt to the bottom fighter, as like Mein, Burrell spent most of the first two rounds on his back, being taken down five times.

Quick Shots

–If there was a bright spot for Amagov, it was taking down Lawler early in their fight. Lawler is generally assumed to have pretty good takedown defense, much of which is owed to his upper body strength and solid balance. Taking him down is a pretty good sign of having some decent offensive wrestling, even if the takedown ultimately did not benefit Amagov that much.

–Although it has little to do with Saturday night’s event, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos’ failed drug test for PEDs. My immediate reaction was disappointment because it just backs up what everyone had already assumed. Then, I thought, “The women’s 145 lb. division may not be around much longer, and I wouldn’t be surprised to never see Cyborg fight in Strikeforce again.”

Cyborg basically IS the 145 pound division. A division, I might add, that was only implemented because of Gina Carano, who has not fought in years now. They had a hard enough time finding women to fight at 145, and now Ronda Rousey has dropped in weight to fight for the 135 lb. title. Cyborg had a long contract dispute and now faces a year-long suspension. Will Strikeforce even be around in 2013? My money’s on the division disappearing, and I think we won’t see Cyborg back in the Strikeforce hexagon again.

Say What?!?

“Keith Jardine has beaten guys like Chuck Liddell and Brandon Vera, so he knows how to finish a fight.”- Frank Shamrock, who apparently forgot that Jardine won both of those fights by decision.

Beautiful Loser Award

This goes to Jordan Mein, who not only won a round from Tyron Woodley (or more, depending on how badly you need to get prescription glasses) in their fight Saturday night. When he was stuck on his back, he worked hard to keep active, throwing strikes and elbows at Woodley like he was channeling Bas Rutten against Kevin Randleman at UFC 20. It’s hard to say that Mein needs to shore up his takedown defense; Woodley represents as good as it gets in Strikeforce’s division when it comes to wrestling. However, if Mein wants a future as either a Strikeforce champion or a contender in the UFC’s wrestler-heavy welterweight division, the writing is on the wall. Elbows from the bottom won’t win you fights, unless you have three Glenn Towbridge’s judging at ringside.

Movin’ On Up Award

King Mo is now in place to challenge for the vacant light heavyweight championship that Dan Henderson left behind some months ago. I’ve always thought pretty highly of Lawal, and he has surprised me with vast improvements to his standup in the last year, as well. Another Lawal-Mousasi fight may be in order.

Sound of Violence Award

This is my own personal bias speaking, but it warmed my cold, black heart to hear Tyler Stinson walk out to “ATLiens” by OutKast. It’s nice to hear OutKast’s pre-Stankonia work get some recognition. No comment on whether or not Stinson’s samurai-inspired hair also influenced my decision.

Holy $#!% Award

Rockhold knocked out Keith Jardine, for God’s sake, and Lawler’s would-be highlight-worthy flying knee was a grazing shot, so I’ve gotta go with King Mo here. It’s always impressive to see that kind of concussive power in someone’s ground and pound assault. That level of control along with that kind of power is hard for any opponent to deal with. Ridiculously hard shots to end that fight…Kim Winslow apparently was as enthralled as me, as she was either purely spectating at that point or thinking about whether to stand the fighters up again while Larkin took several unnecessary shots.

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It may sound like I’m knocking post-Zuffa purchase Strikeforce because, well, I kind of am. I’ve always liked supporting promotions outside of the UFC, but you have to call a spade a spade here and admit that besides the women’s 135 pound division, every division in Strikeforce is now seriously lacking in depth. As a result, we get cards like this one where people get title shots for no apparent reason other than “hey, that guy fought a bunch of times in the UFC!” and where the “who’s who” of Strikeforce (Robbie Lawler, King Mo) are fighting the “who’s THAT?!?” (Adlan Amagov, Lorenz Larkin).

I’ll still watch, though. Hey, so should you, after you read the following picks that may or may not be anywhere near accurate.

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Tyler Stinson

Saffiedine was impressive in his dominant win over the fast-fading Scott Smith, although it’s hard to know exactly what value to place upon a win over Smith at this point in the slugger’s career. Stinson, meanwhile, looked very good as well in his quick knockout of Eduardo Pamplona. Both like to strike, and I expect the balance of this one to take place standing up.

If that’s the case, Saffiedine should get the better of most of the exchanges. With more precise, diverse striking techniques, he should win the war of volume against Stinson, which may lead Stinson to take the fight to the mat at some point. Even there, though, Stinson will struggle to make much headway against an opponent who is pretty evenly-matched with him in the grappling portion of MMA. I think Saffiedine is a little better everywhere and wins a good fight.

Prediction: Saffiedine by decision

Jordan Mein vs. Tyron Woodley

Mein is on the longest winning streak of his career, with six straight victories, while Woodley has never lost in his own nine fight career. Woodley is one of the rare fighters who has been almost completely built on Strikeforce’s stage, with seven of his career fights taking place in the promotion. Woodley was last seen defeating Paul Daley with a strategy that is fairly indicative of the way he usually fights. He’ll look to clinch and get takedowns, emphasizing control before aggression and looking to limit mistakes that can get him hurt or knocked out.

Mein will have his moments in this one. Anyone who saw his last fight against Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos knows that he is comfortable with using unorthodox techniques and does a great job of taking what his opponent gives him. If he has a chance to hurt Woodley, he’ll do so quickly and decisively. Woodley must be his usual, cautious self in order to comfortably win this one.

Ultimately, I think that’s what will happen. Mein is no rookie and will probably be harder to take down than Woodley anticipates, but Woodley will still get the job done. Control isn’t everything, but if you stifle your opponent’s offense, it’s enough. Woodley wins another one that won’t be part of any “fight of the year” talk.

Prediction: Woodley by decision

Lorenz Larkin vs. Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal

At first glance, this may look like your typical striker vs. grappler matchup, but it’s very rare that we see anything that black and white in MMA anymore. Lawal may be a wrestler first and foremost, but he has developed some scary power in his hands and is becoming a fairly competent striker, to boot. He reminds me of other wrestlers like Mark Munoz in that he has the power, but the technique is still coming along.

Larkin has a fairly obvious route to victory here, and it starts with cautious striking and defensive wrestling. Lawal may be tempted to try his striking for awhile, in which case Larkin is in business. Still, the threat of the takedown will loom, especially if Larkin gets the better of some exchanges, and Larkin must be on point. The payoff against King Mo comes in the later minutes of the fight, when he will wear down if given the chance to. Of course, as we saw against Gegard Mousasi, he is a threat to take you down even when he’s running on empty. Is Larkin up to the task of sprawling and brawling to victory while avoiding Lawal’s own bombs? I don’t think so.

Prediction: Lawal by KO/TKO

Adlan Amagov vs. Robbie Lawler

Has there been a more frustrating fighter to root for than Lawler? Ask his fans, and they will probably tell you that there hasn’t been. Lawler has always had the stuff of a top ten middleweight, but can’t seem to put together a good string of wins without having a head-scratching loss to break up the momentum. Meanwhile, Amagov has been on a tear, only losing in his first professional fight over four years ago. Of course, he has also never faced anyone near the level of Lawler.

When Lawler loses, he usually either simply gets caught making a silly mistake (Jake Shields) or simply looks completely disengaged from the fight (Tim Kennedy). The Kennedy fight in particular bothered me, as he showed no particular sense of urgency as the fight wore on despite obviously being down on the cards. Then again, he has had other fights where he was strangely inactive while his opponent took it to him, then came up with a home run swing to win the fight out of nowhere, as he did against Melvin Manhoef.

Here, I don’t expect to see either scenario pop up. If anything, an amped-up Amagov will play right into Lawler’s hands, coming at him aggressively and giving him chances to counter. Amagov simply will not be able to take Lawler down and keep him there, and Lawler usually does a very good job at countering obvious takedown attempts with punishing strikes. This doesn’t look good for Amagov, but it will provide a nice breather for Lawler’s fans.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Strikeforce Middleweight Championship
Luke Rockhold vs. Keith Jardine

“And you may ask yourself, ‘how did I get here?’ And you may say to yourself, ‘that’s not the Strikeforce number one contender!’ And you may say to yourself, ‘This isn’t the Strikeforce I remember!’”

You don’t have to be a Talking Heads fan to know that Strikeforce is far from the “same as it ever was” when Keith freaking Jardine is challenging for the middleweight title. I mean, “Once In a Lifetime”, Jardine was a high-level fighter, but that was some years ago.

Okay, I’ll stop.

The point remains, though. I don’t blame Strikeforce for throwing Jardine in there. Tim Kennedy couldn’t fight, and besides Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, who Rockhold just beat decisively to become champion, who else is there? However, you can’t ignore that this fight symbolizes that Strikeforce is now more like any smaller, regional promotion: they have to just throw whatever veteran with a little name value in there that they can and hope for a good fight. The problem, of course, is that Strikeforce isn’t a small, regional promotion and is supposed to be the second-best MMA organization in the world.

I don’t have a problem with Jardine. I love his work ethic, and I actually enjoy his awkward style, too. By all accounts he’s a good guy, and I was disappointed to see him get cut from the UFC, as he seemed to always be facing top-notch opponents. I don’t think being beaten by Thiago Silva, Rampage Jackson or Ryan Bader means you aren’t a UFC caliber fighter, it just means you shouldn’t be ranked in the top ten of your weight class. With thirty to forty light heavyweights on the roster at any point in time, you’re gonna tell me there’s no room for a gutsy veteran like Jardine?

Anyway, Jardine can win this fight. He’s shown against Mousasi and previously against Brandon Vera, Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin that he can beat just about anyone on any given night. The problem is that everything has to go his way. He fights well on the inside, but he is also very susceptible to hooks on the inside or knees from the clinch. He throws punishing leg kicks, but can be tied or up or taken down if he doesn’t time them perfectly. He’ll always bring a high level of effort and aggression, but can be stifled if his opponent brings the same.

Rockhold simply isn’t the type of fighter to take a night off or have serious mental lapses. He should leave very little for Jardine to take advantage of, and though I expect Jardine to land some solid shots, Rockhold will be equally adept at landing his own shots and stopping any takedown attempts that come his way. Jardine is no fun to fight because if you let up, he’ll win and he has a habit of making you look pretty unimpressive if you don’t manage to floor him with strikes, so this one will be a close one throughout. However, Rockhold will win what could very well be a grueling bout.

Prediction: Rockhold by decision

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Fedor done in Strikeforce, but not “done”

Now, it’s gotten a little old that the same predictable talk happens every time a fighter north of say, 34 years old loses a couple of fights. “Should he retire?” “He’s done!” “He should just hang it up”, and so forth. It makes enough sense with someone like Chuck Liddell, who was suffering devastating knockouts with scary frequency, but with Fedor? What are his sins? Getting caught in a triangle choke because he was overexcited (seems funny, considering Fedor’s demeanor) and made a mistake? Getting beat up on by a fellow high-level fighter with a big weight advantage?

Now, I’ll grant that losing to a guy who should be a true middleweight is troublesome, but I’m not discussing whether Fedor will ever be the top heavyweight in the world again. That seems to be a pretty clear “no”, doesn’t it? I’m talking about whether the guy is “done”. “Done” to me means he lacks relevance. Hell, “done” to me means he is a medical liability in the cage and is risking serious injury. I suppose it could also mean he’s a shadow of his former self.

At any rate, I don’t think any of those three examples apply here. Even if you don’t have Fedor in the heavyweight top ten, he’s got to be just outside of there, and only in MMA would fans dare to say that fighters in the top 15 or 20 in the world in their weight class are irrelevant (see: Ortiz, Tito). If only the top five in each weight class are relevant in your view, that speaks more to your ignorance as an MMA and overall sports fan than anything else. Furthermore, Fedor still hasn’t been knocked out cold in a fight. He may be a shadow of his former self, but only in that his former self had the most legendary winning streak in MMA’s short history.

So no, Fedor’s not done being a skilled, relevant threat in the division. Whether he’s literally done as in calling it quits is up to him. However, we do know now that he’s done in Strikeforce, which means we’ll get to enjoy watching him spend the twilight of his career either in retirement or beating up on the likes of Todd Duffee in Japan. By the way, how does Dana White “cut” someone whose contract expired, anyway? He just wanted to be able to say he cut Fedor Emelianenko, even though we don’t know whether Fedor even would have kept fighting, regardless.

One last thing: there are a lot of you on each side of the “is Fedor the greatest HW (or even overall fighter) ever” debate. You know what doesn’t strengthen your argument? Being an idiot. If you simply bash anyone who disagrees with you as either being a Zuffa loyalist sheep that just started watching the sport or as a Fedor-nuthugging Pride fan who lives in the past, you are not really proving your point.

Fighting to win?

Now, I hate to do this, because one of these two guys is a fighter I’ve always rooted for, but if I can’t give my two cents I’m not really doing my job. I have to say that Paul Daley and Robbie Lawler, for different reasons, exhibited awful game plans and strategy in the third rounds of their losing efforts to Tyron Woodley and Tim Kennedy, respectively. (Guess which one I was describing in the first sentence? Hint: not the dude who sucker-punches opponents after fights)

Lawler in particularly disappointed me with his striking output in the third round. Kennedy appeared to be getting tired and definitely wasn’t as persistent or effective with his takedown attempts, and Lawler had to know he was down two rounds to none, but what did he do? Move around and not strike. One of my biggest pet peeves in any sport is a lack of urgency when the contest is on the line, and in MMA I hate it even more than in other sports. You know you’re down two rounds to none, throw a fucking strike! You have to knock this guy out, right?

Now, Daley did throw strikes and try to put Woodley away, but how he did it made no sense. You have concussive punching power and can knock out true middleweights with your shots, and what do you do in the third round against a better wrestler? I know! Throw knees without setting them up with punches! I didn’t even want Daley to win and I was still shouting at my screen, “Stop throwing fucking knees already!” Every time Daley threw a knee in that third round, Woodley was latching on to him and even though Daley would sprawl, 20-30 seconds would tick off the clock before Daley could get some separation and get back to standing. I saw this pattern, how did Daley not see it? When Daley actually threw punches and left the Ong Bak shit out, he was hurting Woodley and putting him under pressure. Why he kept being okay with grappling with the guy or wasting time punching him from the sprawl top position (because you’re going to knock the guy out that way) is beyond me.

Fight for the fans? Ask Scott Smith!

One of the debates that is always raging on in mixed martial arts is how exciting fighters should be. Fighters are entertainers too, right? Being a crowd-pleasing slugger is better, right? Well, let’s take a look.

As Exhibit A, you have Georges St. Pierre. Amazingly talented fighter, could go down as the greatest pound-for-pound fighter of all-time, but fans have been riding him lately for not taking enough chances. Going to too many decisions.

As Exhibit B, you have Scott Smith. He owns three of the top twenty most amazing in-fight comebacks of all-time. He’s got plenty of memorable knockouts in his highlight reel and fans respect him for swinging for the fences and taking punishment without flinching.

Which guy would you rather be right now? Whose bank account would you rather have? Now, I’m not saying that Smith had the skill set to be GSP, but do you think he’d be happier right now to have a few more fans, or to be in the UFC still? How many fans who encourage fighters to “take more risks” are going to be contributing to send Smith’s kids to college if the accumulated toll of a career’s worth of fighting like Rocky Balboa forces him out the door? For that matter, if GSP had decided to “be more exciting” and had lost a couple of fights in a row now, how many of you naysayers that bitch about his fights would have paid the win bonuses he missed out on for fighting like an idiot?

To me, Smith is a sad reminder that your first responsibility as a fighter is not to be exciting. Your first goal should not be to entertain the fans or to get Dana White to tweet to his legion of followers that you had a “sick” fight. Your job is to win, and no matter how exciting you are or how many great knockouts you’ve had, if you stop winning, those fans that once celebrated you for being such an exciting fighter will have moved on to cheering for someone else while you try to scrape together a living fighting in Shark Fights.

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I wouldn’t exactly call myself Nostradamus for predicting a rollicking, wild brawl to start the bout. What did surprise me is that both men were visibly hurt by punches within the first round. I don’t know if I underestimated the considerable punching power of both men or overestimated the ability of both to withstand powerful shots (or a bit of both), but this fight presented a dynamic finish where both men seemed to get rocked within instants of one another.

After a prolonged clinch in the middle minutes of the round, Hendo appeared to be hurt as Fedor came forward aggressively with punches. Hendo, though alert, fell to his back against the cage, but as Fedor swarmed with more shots, Henderson underhooked Fedor’s near leg and escaped out the back door, then quickly landed an uppercut in a beautifully-performed sequence. Fedor was hurt pretty badly and as Hendo capitalized, Herb Dean quickly stepped in to stop the bout.

In his post-fight interview, Fedor was mum on the subject of retirement, saying that it would be “God’s will” that would decide his fate. He was more opinionated on the stoppage, which he did feel was a bit hasty. In Fedor’s defense, he did appear to be actively working to defend himself as Hendo was pulled off of him. However, when Dean initially made the decision to step in, Fedor was definitely hurt and in trouble, so it’s hard to fault the veteran referee for ending the bout.

In the night’s only title bout, Miesha Tate deftly ended a back-and-forth battle with Marloes Coenen with a beautiful arm triangle from side control in the fourth round to become the new Strikeforce Women’s Featherweight Champion. Tate had gotten takedowns in each of the four rounds, though Coenen had won at least one stanza with her great jiu-jitsu along the way.

In the closing sequence, Tate had assumed side control with her back to the cage and worked to get her head underneath Coenen’s far arm. Once she did so, she assumed knee-on-belly, then crossed over to mount and quickly to side control all within seconds to sink the hold in. Coenen fought off the submission for several seconds, but was forced to tap when she could not escape and could no longer fight off the hold. The win for Tate likely sets up a rematch between her and former champion Sarah Kaufmann (who beat Tate the first time they fought) in the future.

Tim Kennedy may have punched his ticket to another title opportunity against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza with a clear-cut decision win over the tough Robbie Lawler earlier in the night. Lawler showcased much-improved takedown defense throughout the fight, but Kennedy was still able to take him down and keep him there when it counted. When Lawler had a better opportunity to beat up on a tiring Kennedy late in the fight, he seemed gun-shy and a takedown in the last minute of the bout sealed the deal for Kennedy for once and for all.

In a very similar fight, Tyron Woodley beat Paul Daley by unanimous decision in the second televised bout of the event. Like Lawler, Daley showed much-improved takedown defense, but it still just wasn’t good enough as Woodley controlled Daley enough to win the unanimous decision. During the several minutes that the fight remained standing, Woodley held his own in the striking, as the threat of the takedown seemed to hurt Daley’s output early in the fight. Later on, Daley started to get the better of the striking, but started to favor knees that gave Woodley easy takedown attempts. Though Daley would stuff the takedowns, he would be stuck in the sprawl position with Woodley for moments at a time as precious seconds ticked off the clock. In the end, he ran out of time to put a hurting on Woodley, who remains undefeated.

In the first televised bout of the evening, Tarec Saffiedine did what most expected him to do, picking apart Scott Smith through three rounds en route to a unanimous decision win. Smith never really was able to dissuade Saffiedine from moving around and mixing up his strikes and never had the victorious fighter in danger. This one-sided bout showed that Smith’s regular strategy of just taking punishment while looking for a big shot is not only outdated, but is putting the career of a very fun fighter to watch in jeopardy.

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That aside, I suppose Fedor-Hendo should be a good scrap. I have no doubt that their styles will make for entertaining action, but it just doesn’t have that special something to really make me anticipate the bout. Relevance? I don’t know. Still, it’s a good card and we have nothing better to watch, anyway, so let’s get on with the preview!

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Scott Smith

Both fighters will hope to get on the winning track again in a fight that should be quite entertaining. Saffiedine was last seen getting laid on by Tyron Woodley in a fight that (spoiler alert!) looked a lot like Woodley’s bout tonight with Paul Daley will. Meanwhile, Smith has been stopped his last two times out, first by Cung Le and then in his welterweight debut against Daley.

Let’s sum this one up in a nutshell. You have a guy with good overall standup and a nice variety of weapons that uses combos well. Then, you have a guy with tons of heart but that doesn’t mind getting the crap beat out of him will looking for one big shot to end it. Oh, and the second guy is also fighting a weight class below where he should be and might not look very good as a result of being drained.

Pretty clear, right? And I’m sure you knew which guy was which, also. Saffiedine just has too much and Smith puts too much stock into landing the big killshot. It could happen as it has several times in the past, but Saffiedine is the sensible pick.

Prediction: Saffiedine by decision

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley

There’s only one thing I need to know here. Has Daley increased his takedown defense? No? He hasn’t? Well, then this is one of the more obvious picks one could ever be asked to make. On what planet does Woodley stupidly stand with Daley for more than 1.3 seconds before taking him down each and every round en route to an easy win? I don’t know, but it’s certainly not this planet, because that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

Could Daley land a big shot that changes the fight? Sure, but he’ll only have the briefest of windows to do so, because Woodley isn’t going to play with him. And as we saw against Josh Koscheck, Daley will likely be so worried about defending takedowns that he won’t even swing for the fences when he has the opportunity. That’s a mistake in my opinion, because he’s not going to be able to stop the takedowns, anyway. Why lose without ever having taken a real swing when your only hope is a KO?

The only reason to watch this one is to see if we get some more classic Daley antics as the fight goes on and he grows more and more frustrated. Woodley will wear Daley out and maybe finish him late with ground strikes.

Prediction: Woodley by KO/TKO

Tim Kennedy vs. Robbie Lawler

This is one of those matchups where you’re tempted to say “if the fight goes the distance, it favors fighter A, and if it doesn’t, fighter B probably wins.” Well, you might say that if you didn’t realize what a nonsensical thing that is to say. What kind of sense does that make, after all? The minute that the last second of the fifteenth minute ticks off, the one fighter becomes the favorite regardless of what has happened? If the other guy can knock out or submit the fighter A, why can’t he win a decision?

Anyway, Kennedy is what a lazy person like myself would call a “grinder”, mostly because we don’t want to come up with our own term. He’s going to look to close the distance and stay out of trouble against the heavy-handed Lawler while controlling him against the cage a la Randy Couture (“Handy” if you’re Brazilian). Lawler will, well…he’ll try to not let that happen, right? I mean, obviously.

In all seriousness, the problem with Kennedy’s likely game plan is that Lawler is big and strong enough to avoid being muscled around. He has good balance in standing clinch situations and is hard to toss to the mat from the clinch. Meanwhile, while he prefers standing and striking at distance, he has dangerous power in close, too. His defensive wrestling may likely negate any attempts of Kennedy to take the fight to the mat.

Which leads us to a dangerous fight for Kennedy where there is no real safe place for him to ply his trade. In that case, it’s just a matter of time.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Strikeforce Women’s Welterweight Championship
Marloes Coenen vs. Miesha Tate

Liz Carmouche’s loss is Tate’s gain in this fight, as there is a 100% chance that Tate will simply follow the blueprint that Carmouche laid in her fight with Coenen, where she was doing quite well before being submitted by a fourth-round triangle choke.

Tate will try not to get Carmouche’d in this one (or maybe “Sonnen’d” is better?) and I think she’ll have a better chance. For one, she is possibly a stronger wrestler and should be able to control Coenen’s hips better, especially in the later rounds. Also, I think that Tate will be justifiably cautious of Coenen’s submission game throughout the fight, which Carmouche obviously wasn’t as she got in a comfort zone and let her guard down in the later rounds.

Don’t expect to see much standing and striking, as both will be perfectly happy on the mat. Coenen would obviously rather be on top, but I don’t see much chance of that happening. Meanwhile, Tate will use strikes to allow her to set up deceptive, quick takedowns. From there, it’s a question of whether she can get through the fight without being subbed. I think she can and she’ll win by late TKO.

Prediction: Tate by KO/TKO

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson

You hear the “two legends” stuff all the time, but this one is very much the real thing, as two first ballot Hall of Famers (though not UFC Hall of Famers, since neither are good buddies of Dana White) square off tonight.

At first glance, this is a tough fight to call. After all, the two fight basically identically, at least when the fight is standing. Both even like to use the clinch in similar ways, striking ably and using leverage for throws and clinch takedowns. On the mat, there are some differences as Fedor has a pretty slick submission game that Hendo lacks, but Henderson is more than capable of fending off submissions after all of his years in the sport.

Where this one may differ in terms of people’s predictions will be when asking two questions: “How much does Fedor have left in him?” and “How much will the size difference matter?”

Now, Fedor hasn’t looked too good in his last two fights, but I wonder if people aren’t writing him off too soon. All this retirement talk seems very hasty when one fight consisted of just poor grappling on Fedor’s part and the other was just Fedor getting beaten at his own game by a much bigger opponent. I’m not saying the losses don’t mean anything, but they don’t mean he doesn’t have anything left to offer.

What about the size factor? Well, we all know Hendo fears no man, but five of his eight career losses have come against bigger opponents. Hendo is certainly one of the greatest middleweight MMA fighters of all-time, but when he’s chosen to step up in weight he has had trouble against elite competition such as the Nogueira brothers, “Rampage” Jackson and years ago, Wanderlei Silva.

Try as I can, I don’t really see either fighter rocking the other. It’s a possibility with the wild swinging style that both love and stubbornly stick to, but both have pretty solid chins so it doesn’t seem like the smartest pick. Where we may see a difference is in terms of who can control the other man and who can put everything together better. Even that is hard to call, but I’d give a slight edge to Fedor there. To be honest, this is one of the toughest fights of the year so far to pick. I’ll go with Fedor, because I think he’s a better heavyweight than Hendo. Seems logical, right?

Prediction: Fedor by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Before we get started, a quick note on my criteria: for one, I place emphasis on how close to being defeated the eventual winner was. It’s not much of a comeback without being close to losing, right? Another important thing is how quick and dramatic the swing of momentum is. What we saw last night was a great comeback because in literally just a few seconds, the tables turned. Finally, there’s the all-important aspect of my own impartiality. That’s right, overruling even the first two criteria will be my own vague reasons and personal opinion. That’s the criterion I’ll be pointing you too if you write me an e-mail to disagree, by the way. We MMA writers are nothing if not fully accountable for our opinions, after all!

10. Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef (Strikeforce: Miami, Jan. 2010)

The Setup

Everyone expected the proverbial sparks to fly in this matchup between two of the most powerful and aggressive strikers in the sport. However, early on it was Manhoef’s stinging leg kicks that made Lawler uncomfortable as the fight started to look like Lawler’s doomed effort against Pete Spratt at UFC 42.

It Was “Over” When…

Lawler was backed up into the cage with 2:15 remaining by repeated leg kicks that sent his lead leg flying out from under him. As Manhoef started looking for the kill with powerful hooks to the head and body, all Lawler could do was put his guard up and try to block the punches as well as possible. Naysayers may say that Lawler was never that close to being put away in this one, but I beg to differ. He couldn’t have taken many more of those leg kicks (“[Manhoef] tore my legs up,” he said afterward) and it was about as one-sided a round as you’ll see. Right before Lawler changed everything, Manhoef had landed 24 of 38 strikes while Lawler had only even thrown three strikes total.

It was Really Over When…

With 1:31 left, Lawler ate yet another hard kick to the inside of his lead leg while backup up to the cage. Immediately after, he ducked and threw a massive overhand right that connected perfectly and dropped Manhoef. As Manhoef was falling, Lawler followed him to the floor and landed a follow-up left that put Manhoef completely left. Another right landed just after Lawler fell down on top of Manhoef, but it was unnecessary and the fight was being broken up anyway. Lawler landed just three strikes the entire fight- the punch that dropped Manhoef, the left that put him out completely, and the follow-up right on the ground.

9. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Everyone (Various, 2002-2008)

The Setup

It’s hard to leave any Nogueira fights out, so I have three choices. And yes, that makes this a Top 12 instead of a Top 10, but I’m okay with that and you should be too, dear reader. The three fights would be Nogueira’s wins over Bob Sapp (Pride-Shockwave), Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (Pride-Final Conflict 2003), and Tim Sylvia (UFC 81). Sapp isn’t the most talented fighter, but had over 100 pounds on Nogueira, while Cro Cop was one of the most dangerous heavyweights in the world and Sylvia was an unpopular but effective former UFC champion.

It Was “Over” When…

Sapp literally dropped Nogueira on his head with a piledriver, Cro Cop finished a dominating ten-minute opening round with a head kick that knocked Nogueira on his backside at the bell, and Sylvia hurt Nogueira multiple times with punches en route to winning the first two rounds of their bout.

It was Really Over When…

Nogueira took advantage of Sapp’s lack of ground skills and cardio by locking in an armbar from side control, finally got Cro Cop to the mat and beat him by armbar, and pulled guard on Sylvia, swept him and guillotined him from side control as the bigger man attempted to get up. In MMA history, no one has turned imminent defeat into victory via submissions like Nogueira has.

8. Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Kestutis Smirnovas (K-1 Hero’s 6, Aug. 2006)

The Setup

Sakuraba was making his K-1 Hero’s [sic] debut against Smirnovas, a Lituanian fighter who had compiled an 18-5 career record but hadn’t done anything of note before their fateful matchup. Sakuraba, of course, was a legend in Pride whose career was only marred by Pride’s repeated decision to put him up against much larger fighters. He then debuted in the grammatically incorrect K-1 Hero’s with high hopes of returning to his former glory.

It Was “Over” When…

Smirnovas dropped Saku with a left hook, then right hook during a wild exchange just forty seconds into the fight. Saku fell to his hands and knees and Smirnovas straddled him, turning him to his back and landing eight stiff right hands in a row right on Saku’s chin as he alternately appeared to be out of it or just plain dazed. There was a quick restart as Saku’s head had gone under the bottom rope and Sakuraba was dragged back into the ring quickly, and an impatient Smirnovas landed another right before the fight was even restarted. When it was resumed just a couple of seconds later, Smirnovas went back to work with left-handed hammerfists and more rights as Saku struggled to get to his hands and knees and escape. He took several shots to the back of the head as well, as this bout wasn’t exactly an example of great refereeing, to put it incredibly lightly.

It was Really Over When…

Saku finally overwhelmed a completely gassed Smirnovas with punches standing up, prompting the Lithuanian to roll to the mat. Sakuraba sloooowwwwly pushed Smirnovas’ legs aside almost casually and settled into side control. From there, it was just a moment before he spun for the armbar and got it, ending a fight that 99.9% of MMA referees would have stopped minutes earlier, and with good cause. Still, though you wouldn’t have blamed the referee for stopping it when Smirnovas was playing the conga drums on poor Saku’s head and face, you also can’t argue with the fact that Sakuraba obviously was able to continue and finish the fight in his own favor. Sadly, Sakuraba was already a shell of his former self and has been even worse since this fight, putting up a mediocre 6-6 record since then.

7. Mike Russow vs. Todd Duffee (UFC 114, May 2010)

The Setup

You couldn’t find a better antithesis to Duffee than Russow. Duffee was the new, marketable prospect in the UFC’s heavyweight division with a chiseled body and intimidating look. Russow was the doughy, hype-less wrestler with a workmanlike attitude that was supposed to provide more material for Duffee’s highlight reel.

It Was “Over” When…

Halfway through the third round, Duffee had dominated Russow, outstriking him 45-10 while thwarting all of his takedown attempts easily. Duffee had used his reach and superior striking technique to frustrate and hurt Russow, though Russow’s sturdy chin had kept him conscious through it all. With a couple of minutes to go, a tiring Duffee was cruising to a unanimous decision victory.

It was Really Over When…

Literally out of nowhere, a Russow right hand landed flush on the temple of Duffee, sending him down to the canvas. A follow-up shot forced Josh Rosenthal to jump in and stop the fight at 2:32 of the third round as fans reacted in disbelief and awe. The punches were just the 14th and 15th strikes that Russow landed in the entire 12 1/2 minute fight, and Russow was 0 for 9 on takedown attempts, to boot. Duffee had injuries and other issues push him out of his scheduled bouts after that before the UFC finally just released him from his contract after a 1-1 record in the UFC.

6. Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen (UFC 117, Aug. 2010)

The Setup

After months of trash talking, Chael Sonnen was finally going to face Anderson Silva for Silva’s UFC Middleweight Championship. Few believed that Sonnen could actually back up the epic levels of verbal vomit he had spewed at anyone who would listen for months before the matchup.

It Was “Over” When…

The fifth and final round began and Silva had barely put up a fight through four full rounds of action. Sonnen had taken Silva down at will and even out-struck him in several exchanges, and even though the majority of the fight had taken place on the mat, Silva had not even attempted a submission other than a short-lived kimura attempt in round two. Sonnen had landed more strikes in every single round and with 2 1/2 minutes to go, he was on top of Silva again and looking at not only a win, but a possible 50-45 or even 50-44 result on the judges’ scorecards.

It was Really Over When…

Sonnen allowed Silva to control his left wrist for about 45 seconds while he simply continued punching away with his right hand, and then Silva suddenly went for the triangle choke, which was obviously trouble for Sonnen from the get-go. Sonnen fought it off as well as he could, but when Silva torqued his arm as well, Sonnen had to tap to the triangle/armbar combination to end the fight in stunning fashion.

5. Scott Smith vs. Cung Le (Strikeforce: Evolution, Dec. 2009)

The Setup

This fight was a striker’s delight on paper between the tough and powerful Smith and the technically proficient and flashy Le, who hadn’t fought in almost two years after his one-sided win over Frank Shamrock, but also hadn’t lost in 6 professional MMA bouts.

It Was “Over” When…

Le had battered Smith for three straight rounds, landing just about any kick he could imagine with apparent ease and hurting Smith multiple times with kicks and punches to the head and body. Smith had dropped both rounds, with the first being a likely 10-8 for Le as Smith was nearly finished in the opening stanza. With just two minutes left, Le was picking his spots while closing out what was surely a one-sided decision victory.

It was Really Over When…

Smith followed up a short left hook that clipped Le with a desperation rally that concluded when a right cross dropped Le to his stomach. Smith finished with right hands on the ground to force intervention from “Big” John McCarthy to complete the stunning and sudden comeback.

4. Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (UFC 116, July 2010)

The Setup

Billed as a fight that couldn’t possibly go the distance, everyone expected this one to be finished within one round. Carwin, the UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion, had never gone past the first round in his career- a career in which all of his fights had ended in KOs or TKOs in his favor. Meanwhile, Lesnar was possibly the only man in the UFC or elsewhere that could match Carwin in size, power, and wrestling ability, making Lesnar’s title defense a much anticipated one. The fact that Lesnar was returning from a lengthy layoff due to a career-threatening bout with diverticulitis just hyped fans for the fight even more.

It Was “Over” When…

Carwin swarmed on Lesnar after clipping him in the first round, landing 52 strikes on the mat as Lesnar just tried to stay alive however he could. Several times during the one-sided beating it appeared as if referee Josh Rosenthal was about the stop the fight, but he wisely did not even as Carwin continued punishing the champ.

It was Really Over When…

Well, when Lesnar took a fatigued Carwin down in the second round, but it was really over much earlier than that. I would almost say that it was a done deal when Carwin wasn’t able to finish Lesnar in the first and Lesnar popped up and finished the first round with a takedown attempt of his own. Carwin was seriously exhausted and had nothing left in him, as Lesnar easily took him down early in the second and finished him with an arm triangle from starting from the mount, then side control shortly after.

3. Scott Smith vs. Pete Sell (The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale, Nov. 2006)

The Setup

Neither fighter was in reach of a title shot, nor was either fighter any kind of household name, the fight was just a fun matchup between two pretty good strikers at the conclusion of The Ultimate Fighter 4. If not for the finish, this fight would have simply been another good fight and nothing more.

It Was “Over” When…

As Smith circled away with 1:41 left in the second round, Sell reached out with a left and landed a hook to Smith’s body that immediately hurt him. Smith winced and started to double over in pain and Sell moved in for the kill.

It was Really Over When…

Smith pulled himself together just long enough to launch a perfect straight right that instantly dropped Sell (and another look in slow-mo). Another right followed, but it was unnecessary as Sell had already been beaten and the fight was being stopped. Smith couldn’t even celebrate the victory, as he immediately went back to being doubled over in pain after the fight was stopped. It was one of the most incredible sequences in MMA history.

2. Matt Hughes vs. Frank Trigg II (UFC 52, Apr. 2005)

The Setup

Trigg had previously challenged Hughes for his title at UFC 45, but fell to a rear naked choke in the first round. Humbled, he TKO’d both Dennis Hallman and Renato Verissimo to earn another shot at Hughes at UFC 52. Trigg was determined to make sure that this one didn’t end up like their first fight.

It Was “Over” When…

Referee Mario Yamasaki didn’t see Trigg land a knee right to Hughes’ twig-and-berries early in the first round. Hughes winced in pain and circled away to get some space to recover, but Trigg was all over him. He swarmed Hughes with punches and ended up mounting, then attempting a rear naked choke of his own on Hughes.

It was Really Over When…

Hughes escaped the choke as Trigg had gotten too far off onto Hughes’ left side when he took his back. He turned into Trigg against the cage to escape, and as Trigg went to stand he picked him up and carried him quickly across to the other side of the cage before slamming him down. After gaining the mount, he peppered Trigg with punches and elbows before Trigg was forced to give up his back. From there, Hughes sank in a rear naked choke to get another submission win over his rival. It was possibly the greatest momentum change in MMA history and was even Dana White’s favorite fight of all-time for many years (and possibly still is).

1. Cheick Kongo vs. Pat Barry (UFC Live 4, June 2011)

The Setup

Two heavyweights needing a win to move towards the upper echelon of the division were facing off. Both were accomplished strikers, but many expected Kongo to use his improved wrestling to get an extra edge against the flashy and powerful Barry.

It Was “Over” When…

Barry clipped Kongo with a right hand with 2:47 left in the first round, setting off an unbelievable 26 seconds of MMA. The right hook landed behind Kongo’s ear and wobbled him to the mat, and Barry was all over him. You could make very compelling cases for a referee stoppage with 2:41 and 2:34 remaining, and Miragliotta even made contact with the fighters at one point when he had moved in for a stoppage but decided against it as Kongo suddenly showed signs of life. Kongo was stumbling around and trying to get to his feet however he could, as he was dropped two seperate times.

It was Really Over When…

After getting up for the second time, Kongo stumbled back to the fence with Barry swinging aggressively at him. Suddenly, Kongo landed a right that gave Barry pause for just an instant, and then a perfect right uppercut that knocked Barry out cold as he continued trying to put Kongo away. Barry flopped limply to his back as Kongo gave a couple of extra shots for good measure, prompting Dan Miragliotta to stop the fight officially at 2:39 of the first round.

Honorable Mentions:

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Kazuyuki Fujita (Pride 26, June 2003)
–”The Last Emperor” got nailed early with a right hand that had him wobbling around the ring, but hung with it long enough to land some big shots of his own and finish the powerful Fujita with a rear naked choke.

Roger Huerta vs. Clay Guida (The Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale, Dec. 2007)
–Huerta was down two rounds to none going into the third round and Guida looked as fresh as ever going into the final stanza. An epic staredown before the third round came just a half-minute before the finish as a suddenly-reinvigorated Huerta landed a head kick and submitted Guida with a rear naked choke to complete the sudden comeback.

Scott Smith vs. Benji Radach (Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Diaz, Apr. 2009)
–Similar to the Cung Le fight in that Radach had dominated the action early on, winning the first two rounds. Radach notched a 10-8 second round in the opinions of many as he cut Smith open and rocked him badly, as well. Then, Smith landed a right hand just after being tossed on his head that changed the fight. Radach tried to rally in return, but another right put him out cold and completed yet another comeback for Smith.

Tim Sylvia vs. Andrei Arlovski (UFC 59, Apr. 2006)
–Think Smith vs. Sell, except that Arlovski hurt Sylvia by going to the head, not to the body, and the whole thing was quite a bit more lumbering and sloppy-looking. Arlovski hurt Sylvia early in their fight with a big right hand, but when he moved in for the kill, Sylvia clipped him with a short right that ended his night suddenly and brutally. This actually gets knocked down a notch simply because the two were so overly respectful in their following fight (the rubber match between the two) that they laid one of the all-time stinkers in the cage at UFC 61 in a five-round snoozefest.

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Also, Herschel Walker.

Diaz’s persona still getting attention over his talent?

Just for fun, I hit up some MMA forums after Diaz finished Cyborg by armbar, and sure enough, just as much (or more) of the talk centered around his personality as did his performance. Then, of course, you get the expected overreaction from Diaz fans, who adjust their feelings accordingly and start ascending Diaz to the status of being a gentlemanly scholar and number one welterweight in the world, to boot. Such is how things work on the internet. That’s a story for another time, though.

Sure, Diaz wasn’t addressing Cristiane Santos after the fight when he was flipping off members of the crowd and mouthing “fuck you, bitch”. Does that really matter that much, though? Sure, mocking a woman who is already upset over her husband having lost a fight is some serious douchebaggery, but isn’t it still troubling that after putting on a gutsy performance and defending his title, the first thing Diaz did was go into gangster mode and start flipping people off?

I’m not a Diaz “hater”, though these days if you criticize anything, you’re automatically a “hater”, which is why it’s a stupid term in the first place. I like watching Diaz fight and I doubt that he’s quite as aggressive in his private life as he is in his public one. Also, I’m not psychiatrist (or even a psychologist, at that). However, you don’t have to be anything but a person with a firm grasp of logic to know that if somebody is consistently on your television screen flipping people off, getting into altercations and feuding with others, the problem is more likely to lie with them than with the several dozen individuals that they haven’t been able to get along with.

If I can, I’d like to request that the Diaz apologists stick with this for just a couple more paragraphs, though I know that’s a lot to ask. Seriously, though- is it honest to continue making excuses for guys like Diaz, or even like Josh Koscheck, claiming that their personas are falsely given to them by the media, creative editing on reality shows, or just plain a result of their being misunderstood? It’s not like we imagined Diaz getting into a fight with Joe Riggs in the hospital after their UFC bout, or being involved altercations with KJ Noons or Jason “Mayhem” Miller. Those things happened. Again, you can say that they weren’t his fault, but plenty of other fighters make it their whole careers without brawling former opponents in a hospital or starting a near-riot during a post-fight interview. Are they all just lucky? Is Diaz just unlucky? Does trouble seek him out, or is he looking for it?

It doesn’t really matter. The fact that he is constantly involved in some nonsense is all that matters. Diaz is visibly annoyed with being asked about his demeanor during interviews, and is equally frustrated with being underrated by the media and fans. That’s understandable, but doesn’t he realize that if he can stop playing the gangster role for a few minutes and be a professional like other fighters manage to, he can help his cause in both of those cases?

Diaz needs to stop undermining his own performances with his actions. If he wants to be a hard-ass all the time, that’s his decision, but he can’t play innocent and pretend that he doesn’t understand why everyone wants to focus on his personality instead of his talent if he’s going to go that route.

Jacare shows improvement against Lawler

I’ll admit it, I never thought Jacare would be able to have such repeated success in the takedown department against Lawler. One of the more difficult things about predicting MMA fights is that it’s hard to imagine the improvement (or lack thereof, in some fighter’s cases) that takes place between fights for certain competitors. Jacare has clearly honed his takedowns, which were already solid, even further.

Even his standup wasn’t too shabby, though Lawler overwhelmed him at one point. That’s going to happen, though: Lawler will get you backing up even if he doesn’t land cleanly due to the power he wields. One great thing about jiu-jitsu standouts, though, is their ability to stay calm when put in a bad situation or when facing adversity. Jacare did just that and turned the fight in his favor from that point in the first round onward.

Jacare’s road from here figures to actually be less difficult than the one that Strikeforce has in trying to find him quality opponents. He’s already beaten Mayhem (though he says he’ll face him again, if he has to) and there really isn’t anyone else besides the winner of the just-announced Tim Kennedy-Luke Rockhold bout…and Kennedy wouldn’t be an ideal opponent, since Jacare has recently beaten him, too.

How should we feel about Herschel Walker?

I realize that I come across as a Herschel Walker “hater” (there’s that word again), but I really have nothing against the guy. He’s actually very likable. At 48 years old, he works harder than most professional athletes half his age. He truly loves the sport and competes because he wants to, not because he has to. By all accounts at American Kickboxing Academy, he works hard and is a good teammate. His disclosed pay was just $5,000 from Saturday’s show and $600 for his first fight (that doesn’t include any bonuses that Strikeforce may or may not have paid him).

I don’t have a problem with Walker. I don’t even mind watching him fight, really. I do think that there are other fighters that could be more deserving of that roster spot (and the resulting television time), but that isn’t a knock on Walker. He’s just doing something that he wants to do. It’s not his fault that Strikeforce televises his fights anymore than it was Kimbo Slice’s fault that EliteXC built their promotion around him. What’s he gonna do? Tell Strikeforce, “Hey, I don’t want to be on TV until I’m fighting relevant competition”?

He recently said to Sherdog.com that he aims to use the publicity that he’s generating in the mainstream media to help grow the sport, and that’s commendable. Really, I guess there’s nothing not to like. However, it’s hard to call it a feel-good story when perfectly talented young UFC cast-offs are fighting in obscure shows because Strikeforce claims not to have the roster space to sign them.

I get it. It makes sense for Strikeforce to use his name value, just as it makes sense to Walker to do something he enjoys doing. Still, it’s impossible to simply ignore that he’s a rookie fighter getting a coveted spot on a televised card while full-time fighters who are struggling to get by are praying to get some sort of break, right?

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Jacare Souza talks about his third round rear naked choke submission win of Robbie Lawler at the Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg event this past weekend.

We saw Diaz eat punches from a powerful striker, often right on the chin, and be no worse for wear afterward. We saw Diaz counter with his usual flood of accurate punches, working to overwhelm his opponent. We saw Diaz quickly work for a submission as soon as the fight hit the mat, leading to the conclusion of the bout via armbar. We even saw Diaz show a lot of heart and toughness by weathering the storm of leg kicks that Cyborg landed from the earliest moments of the fight onward.

Just to top it all off, we also saw Diaz’s volatile personality after the fight, when he confronted people in the crowd that had apparently been taunting him. As soon as the fight concluded, Diaz made his way toward the offending parties, climbed the cage and gave them the Diaz double-bird special with a side order of thrown mouthpiece for good measure. (As a side note, the rumors that he was addressing Cyborg’s wife are incorrect- she was seated on the other side of the cage from where the incident occurred.)

The next welterweight challenger may be the most compelling one left- slugger Paul Daley. Daley has a fight coming up outside of Strikeforce against Yuya Shirai, and if he prevails he will have the next shot at Diaz. One would think that Diaz could tip things pretty far in his favor by simply taking the fight to the mat, but Diaz has often shown a willingness to “look the critter in the eye,” as Don Frye once put it, so there should be a lot of standup in that one, too.

Meanwhile, Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza was also successful on Saturday night, as he defended his title against challenger Robbie Lawler. Lawler had his moments early on, staying out of trouble on the mat and putting together a couple of flurries, but things quickly turned in Jacare’s favor as the bout became more one-sided.

Jacare converted nearly all of his takedown attempts and made life very stressful for Lawler on the ground, as he consistently improved his position and threatened with submissions. Lawler actually had some very crafty armbar escapes in the second round, but was forced to be on the defensive basically the entire round, too. Finally, it was all she wrote when Jacare was able to take Lawler’s back in the third round, quickly sinking in his hooks and working for a choke. An apparently-fatigued Lawler didn’t put up much of a fight, trying to keep his chin down but not really working to control Jacare’s wrists in defense, and the tap came soon after Jacare dug the choke all the way in.

In other news, all seven of Herschel Walker’s fans can rejoice, as he was able to handle a slightly bigger test in the form of veteran Scott Carson at Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg. Every time that Carson showed a flash of competitiveness, such as when he glanced a high kick off of Walker at the start of the fight or nearly stood up from the mat after a scramble, he would go right back into “passive mode” and seemingly allow Walker to take it to him.

Granted, Walker is quite a physical specimen, even at 48 years old, and Carson is 40 himself. However, Carson just wasn’t up to the task, and a left hook against the cage dropped Carson, prompting a referee stoppage not long after to grant Walker his second MMA win. While Walker is obviously too green and too old to ever figure into the title mix, it would be nice to see him get another step up in competition for his next bout, since he is obviously ready for it.

Finally, Roger Gracie made quick work of veteran Trevor Prangley in the first televised bout of the evening. Prangley, who is always tough, just wasn’t any match for Gracie on the mat, just as the vast majority of MMA fighters aren’t. It was only a matter of time until Gracie got the rear naked choke after he managed to get the fight to the mat and take Prangley’s back. Gracie remains undefeated at 4-0 following the win.

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Oh, and Herschel Walker’s fighting. We’re supposed to be excited about that, also.

Roger Gracie vs. Trevor Prangley

You probably know what you need to about Gracie simply from reading his name, even if you didn’t see his previous Strikeforce bout against Kevin Randleman. You guessed it: outstanding jiu-jitsu, okay at everything else. Then there’s Prangley, who’s more “okay at everything”. Well, that might not be fair. He’s a UFC veteran who has won 12 of his last 15 fights, so he’s pretty good. Still, he’s an 38-year old journeyman of sorts who fits the “jack of all trades, master of none” mold well.

Prangley’s strong suit would have to be his wrestling, though. The problem is that utilizing that weapon puts him right where Gracie is most comfortable: on the mat. You have to wonder if Prangley will opt to stand and trade with Gracie, though Gracie has a good reach at 6’4″ and is capable of competing with Prangley in the striking department. I think that eventually, Prangley will be tempted to take Gracie down, either because he wants to secure a round or two on the cards, he isn’t happy with how the standup is going, or maybe even just force of habit.

If he does, Gracie will work hard to find submission attempts, and I think he’ll be successful with one of them at some point.

Prediction: Gracie by submission

Scott Carson vs. Herschel Walker

Whatever.

Prediction: Walker by KO/TKO

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Robbie Lawler

Some may tell you that this is the “classic striker vs. grappler matchup”. I won’t feed you that line of crap here, but it is a great fight that should be a lot of fun. There are two things that make this more entertaining than most of the striker vs. grappler snorefests we’ve been forced to endure over the years. One is that both of these fighters have elite finishing skills in their disciplines of choice. Jacare can submit anyone at any time, and Lawler is always a threat to score a vicious knockout. The other thing is that both have a fairly good chance of ensuring that the fight takes place where they want it to.

Jacare is pretty good at getting opponents to the mat, but Lawler has very underrated takedown defense. He is also extremely strong and athletic, which makes him extremely difficult to take down safely when combined with the threat of his striking ability.

What people don’t often remember about Lawler is that he is a deceptively accurate striker. Sure, he’ll wing a hook or two that misses the mark or try a wild overhand here and there, but when he needs to land shots (such as when his opponent hits the mat and is struggling to retain consciousness) he usually does. Also, unlike many other knockout artists, he mixes up his punches well and uses a variety of combinations to keep opponents off-balance.

Jacare is a sound striker himself, though he doesn’t have the sheer power that Lawler packs. He is more adept at the offensive aspects of striking than of hitting without being hit himself, though. This means that any length of time where the two are exchanging will inevitably lead to Lawler testing Jacare’s chin.

If Jacare can get it to the mat, all bets are off. Jacare is so far ahead of most opponents on the ground that it’s easy to call a submission victory every time he fights. However, I think Lawler will keep it standing for the majority of the fight, however long that ends up being.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Nick Diaz vs. Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos

This one presents a lot of great questions. Will Diaz’s chin continue to hold up fight after fight? Will Cyborg be able to land a fight-changing blow early on? Will Diaz still go through his usual tough-guy routine against someone as, well, scary as Mr. Cyborg?

Of course he will, but it will still be fun to watch. It will also be a great style clash, as Cyborg will almost assuredly push the pace early and look to land huge punches, while Diaz is used to controlling the center of the cage and using his patented high-volume punching style to confound, frustrate and ultimately wear down opponents. I’ve taken to referring to Diaz as an elite striker in the past, and in MMA terms, I stand by that assessment. When was the last time you saw someone out-strike him?

Cyborg is a different kind of opponent, though, because he is always a serious threat to end the fight with a big shot. Diaz does not have that type of power, and focuses on his hard-to-match pace and an accumulation of shots to do foes in. He also can be trouble on the mat, as we’ve seen in the past. Cyborg is particularly weak on the floor, so if Diaz is able to bring the fight to the mat, he may be able to get a finish there.

Another big question here is cardio. We’ve seen Diaz in one-sided fights as well as all-out brawls that have gone three rounds or more. Cyborg, on the other hand, is like many heavy hitters in that he typically wears down considerably if his foe is able to withstand the early barrage(s).

One wrinkle to think about is Cyborg’s particular potency with leg kicks. Most of Diaz’s opponents have been lured into boxing matches with him, but if Cyborg can attack the leg early and often, it could really hamper Diaz’s ability to work the style that he favors.

Still, the odds are with Diaz here, who is pretty much better everywhere. Cyborg has to fight extremely smart and use leg kicks and be a home run hitter at some point to take the title. I think Diaz wears him down for a successful title defense.

Prediction: Diaz by KO/TKO

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