White doing much better than Cro Cop was against Mir

Dana White has apparently learned from Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic’s mistake, and isn’t being nearly as cautious when going right at Frank Mir. Known for starting public feuds with fighters or calling them out in the press, White had this to say about Mir’s performance: “Once Cro Cop stuffed his takedown attempt, his heart fell out on the floor. If Frank Mir can’t bully you, his heart shrinks to the size of the Grinch’s. If he can’t take you down, his heart shrinks to the size of a pea.” There was also talk of Mir possibly getting cut, but that was just a misinterpretation of White’s response to a separate question.

Still, White is really slapping Mir around verbally right now. Just as he did when he said that Kenny Florian “chokes” in big fights, he’s questioning a fighter’s heart and mindset, even though he watches the fights from the safety of his front-row seat. Now, I am no person to say that a non-fighter can’t criticize a fighter, since that’s pretty much what I get paid to do. However, you have to be careful as a non-fighter when criticizing the heart of a fighter. That’s one of those things that someone who hasn’t been in the cage can’t presume to really know about.

Then there was Mir’s being snubbed for the “knockout of the night” bonus of $70,000, even though his knockout of Cro Cop was the only KO on the card. That’s pretty much a crock, too. The bonus is for the knockout, not for the entirety of the fight, but whatever…it’s White’s deal and he gets to decide how to handle it. Still, this is definitely not the way to treat your fighters. It’s just too bad that there aren’t better competitors out there to make White pay for the way he does business when he gets into these moods of his.

Fitch to middleweight…eventually

Jon Fitch has confirmed once again that he will never face teammates Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick in the Octagon, even saying that he will move up to middleweight to avoid doing so. However, if Georges St. Pierre does as people expect him to and beats Koscheck in his upcoming title defense, Fitch wants to stick around at 170 pounds long enough to get a crack at the world’s top pound-for-pound fighter again.

“But by the time I win the belt at 170,” Fitch says, “there will be one or two fights left because I will have fought everybody else, and I’ll want to move up. That’s just where my career will progress. Just like the other guys who want to fight the best in the world, I’m the same way. It’s always been my intention to clear out 170 and move up.”

You also have to wonder if Dana White will play hardball and try to get Koscheck to face off with Fitch if Kos is unsuccessful against GSP. Since it seems likely that the winner of Martin Kampmann vs. Jake Shields will leapfrog Fitch for a title shot, it could happen. In that case, we could see Fitch at middleweight pretty soon. Given the weaknesses that an apparently juiced-up Chael Sonnen exposed in his fight with Anderson Silva, middleweight might be a good class for Fitch.

A tale of two reactions

So, two guys got screwed over by horrible judging at UFC 119 in the eyes of many UFC fans. The reactions of the two fighters, however, have been very different. First you have Evan Dunham, who clearly won rounds two and three and should have defeated Sean Sherk 29-28, but lost a split decision instead. However, Dunham’s reaction has been very tame, despite the poor decision having given him his first pro loss. “When you don’t finish somebody, you’re subject to the judges’ scrutiny. I don’t place blame on anybody. It’s my fault that I did not go out there and finish him, and I needed to finish him,” Dunham has said quite matter-of-factly.

Then, there’s Jeremy Stephens, who dropped a much closer fight to Melvin Guillard. Stephens has thrown Guillard under the bus for running away and refusing to “stand in the middle and fight,” and has taken every opportunity to disagree with the judges’ decision. Stephens may have a point, but it’s still interesting to see that the guy who really got the shaft (Dunham) is taking the high road here.

Quick Shots

–Andrei Arlovski is not going to take part in this year’s K-1 Grand Prix after all. The heavy-handed fighter, who has a suspect chin but would certainly have brought a good amount of intrigue to the tournament, announced that he would not be participating via his Twitter account.

–Yet another contract renegotiation with Strikeforce, as well as the search to find a “serious opponent”, continues to keep Fedor Emelianenko, thought to be the promotion’s biggest signing ever, on the sidelines. Meanwhile, Fedor continues to publicly mull over retirement, as any thought of him returning to the top spot in the heavyweight division continues to drift away.

–Ed Soares has said to MMA Weekly that he is still not sure whether Anderson Silva would face new number one contender Vitor Belfort in January or February. Soares says that Silva’s ribs are still quite tender. Since ribs tend to take awhile to heal up, I just don’t see this fight happening until February, personally.

–Alan Belcher says there is no timetable for his return after a second surgery to repair a detached retina in his eye. Doctors apparently have said that Belcher is at a higher risk of having his retinas detach, which can happen as a result of impact to the head. The problem is still thought to be career-threatening, though Belcher maintains that he will do whatever he has to in order to fight. No word was available on whether the esteemed Dana White believes that this means Belcher has “heart”, though all of that can apparently change with one lackluster fight, anyway.

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What defines a “boring fight”?

The old problem for MMA, leading up to the Forrest Griffin-Stephan Bonnar fight at the first live MMA event on basic cable, was that fans didn’t understand or appreciate the ground game. Particularly, fans were subject to becoming very bored in a short amount of time when the action on the mat stalled a bit.

However, if you look at what fans seem to find boring these days, it is just as likely to be a stand-up fight as it is to be a stall-fest on the mat. Previously, fans were fine with fights that exhibited a lower pace, as long as the combatants were swinging for the fences from time to time. Back then, a fight like the one between Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens would never have been called “boring”. Fans never would have sighed at the thought of a rematch to a fight like BJ Penn vs. Frankie Edgar.

What’s changed? And most importantly, what constitutes a boring fight these days?

The prevailing opinion, even among some “experienced” MMA fans seems to be that the lack of a finish makes for a dull fight. I never understood this logic, though. Was Mir vs. Cro Cop better than Guillard vs. Stephens because Mir knocked Cro Cop out in the fifteenth minute of their bout? How does a submission or knock out suddenly improve the quality of all of the action (or lack thereof) that took place beforehand?

In a way, you have to take it as a good sign, as fans have learned that two fighters who swing (sometimes wildly) and do not connect very often are not putting on a great show. Furthermore, fans have decided that a fight that takes place on the mat can often be far better than one that takes place standing up. Call me crazy, but I even think that fans are disappointed when many fights never hit the mat, as they have fallen in love with the sport largely because of the variety of things that can happen in an MMA fight, and they want to see good all-around fights, not just “ultimate boxing”.

In any case, I have to say that I think fans have been a little harsh on the subject of UFC 119′s quality. Two really good fights, two decent ones and one snoozefest with a pretty memorable finish does not equal a wasted night, by any means. Throw in some good action on the prelims that was shown on Spike TV, and you got 9 MMA fights, with only one real stinker. The fact that we can all complain about that really shows how far the sport has come.

Hey, back in the day when we were all disappointed by UFC 33 (which featured five decisions, including a couple of the least-exciting bouts in UFC history, and was cut off on pay-per-view during the main event for going over the allotted time), we had to stew on that for a couple of months until UFC 34. Nowadays, we have a free WEC show this week and a free UFC event in a few weeks to look forward to.

A step sideways for Frank Mir

In a sport where a win, any win, usually means a step forward within one’s division, Frank Mir gained absolutely no ground in his effort to secure another title shot in the near-ish future on Saturday night.

Let’s see…did Mir beat an opponent that he was supposed to beat anyway? Check. Do so in entirely unimpressive fashion? Check. Piss off the fans and the boss while doing so? Check.

That’s pretty much a loss in every area except on his actual fighting record. On top of that, there was nothing that Mir did that indicated to anyone that a rematch with the two fighters that are keeping him from regaining his former glory (Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin) would go any differently. (In all fairness to Mir, even taking down Cro Cop and pounding him or submitting him wouldn’t have indicated that he’s patched up the trouble areas he faces against powerful, oversized wrestlers)

In reality, Mir is probably going to be staring at a rematch with a healthy Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, which may be another opportunity for Mir to add a well-known name to his resumé, but still won’t allow him to show why he should be considered a worthy title challenger.

Dunham gets screwed

It was unquestionably the Fight of the Night, and would have been on most UFC cards, honestly. From the start, Sean Sherk and Evan Dunham set a high pace of action, with Sherk focusing on landing takedowns and having to escape submission attempt after submission attempt from the victorious Dunham. It was a great fight, though Dunham definitely won rounds two and three through close submission attempts and out-striking Sherk by a 2-1 margin in round two, as well as a 3-1 margin in round three.

Wait…what’s that? Dunham lost? Yeah, I know. I’m not very convincing at acting surprised, but how would I be when we all pretty much expect at least one crappy, ridiculous decision per MMA event? I actually had the urge to not even write about it, because it’s becoming such a cliché to do yet another “judging in MMA needs to be reformed” rant.

However, whether it was Dunham getting screwed by two out of three judges or judge Otto Torriero somehow giving all the third round of the Guillard-Stephens bout to Guillard, horrible judging once again came to the forefront.

Simply controlling an opponent should never be more important than out-striking him or making more dangerous attempts at ending the fight through deep submission attempts. Control is overrated as a scoring area, and needs to be de-emphasized and reserved as more of a tie-breaker for extremely close rounds or where not a whole lot else is going on.

Quick Shots

–Ryan Bader took the step I expected him to when he beat a very tough opponent in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. It’s too bad that people are disappointed that Bader didn’t knock out Nog. That’s a lot easier said than done, and Bader has already beat a far better opponent than Jon Jones has ever faced. Yet, people still overlook Bader in favor of Jones.

–Props to Chris Lytle for laying to rest some old demons by beating a game Matt Serra decisively. Actually, props to both fighters, who landed more significant strikes combined than in any other fight in UFC history, according to Fightmetric.com.

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Jeremy Stephens vs. Melvin Guillard

Any other event, and I would guarantee that this would be “fight of the night”. However, when you have four-time FOTN winner Chris Lytle on the same card, it’s hard to do so.

Still, this should be a real war, which I realize is a cliché and all, but still holds true. Guillard is always more than happy to face an opponent who wants to keep the bout standing, and Stephens has shown jaw-rocking power in his UFC career thus far.

Further helping to keep the fight standing will be Guillard’s ever-improving takedown defense, which should be enough to fend off anything but the best possible efforts Stephens can bring. Looking at this as a stand-up fight, but have outstanding power, though I love the variety of strikes and combinations better coming from Guillard. Also, when you have a close fight, as we certainly do here, it never hurts to favor experience, as well as whichever guy is coached by Greg Jackson.

Prediction: Guillard by KO/TKO

Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

Wait a minute, who’s this “Sherk” guy? Oh, that’s right, he was last seen a year and three months ago losing to Frankie Edgar. Since then, he has been forced to pull out of every fight he’s signed on for due to injuries, and now he has to come back and face possibly the hottest fighter in the division outside of Edgar himself.

Dunham has been on an absolute tear, submitting Efrain Escudero and beating fellow Xtreme Couture fighter Tyson Griffin by decision this year already. So, in a case like this, it is hard not to err on the side of caution, as there is just too much that has to happen for Sherk to win.

First of all, he has to be fully healthy. Second, he has to be sharp and quick after a 15-month layoff and at 37 years old. Third, he has to be willing to “dance with who brought him” and go back to his wrestling, rather than boxing for round after round like he did against Edgar and BJ Penn. That’s a lot to expect to go right.

If he does stand with Dunham, I favor the younger fighter. He uses his range well with jabs and straight punches, and Sherk always has a reach disadvantage. Sherk’s boxing is good, but will he get close enough to use it effectively? And even if he does try to take down Dunham, Dunham is a capable wrestler who is hard to hold down. I’ll give a slight edge to Dunham here, though Sherk could certainly prove me wrong.

Prediction: Dunham by decision

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Serra

This is one of those rematches that promises to look nothing at all like the original fight. When these two first fought, it was an exercise in caution as neither fighter wanted to make a big mistake and Serra won a razor-thin decision. To hear Chris Lytle tell it, each man fought not to lose, rather than to actually put the other away.

That fight actually changed Lytle’s outlook on fighting, as he wisely has abandoned all hope of winning via decision. It’s a good choice, since he has lost 15 of his career 20 fights that have gone to the judges. It’s also a good decision because Lytle is one of the hardest fighters to knock out or submit in the entire sport. In 51 career fights, he’s never been knocked out, submitted or had a referee stop one of his fights. His two TKO losses were due to cuts/doctor stoppages.

Serra is similarly tough, as only two of his losses have come by being finished: once by Shonie Carter’s infamous spinning backfist way back at UFC 31, and another time in his rematch with Georges St. Pierre. Suffice to say that this fight has a good shot of going to the judges.

It makes a lot of sense to pick Serra here. If the fight hits the mat, he is more than able to stay out of trouble, and can attack Lytle from many positions, too. He has power, as does Lytle, but has a tighter, more practical approach to striking that may help him get the better of exchanges. Having said that, I’m going to do the sensible thing and go with Lytle. What the hell…why not take it all the way and predict a finish?

Prediction: Lytle by KO/TKO

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader

I’m actually really excited for this fight. I have thought for a while now that Bader is a better light heavyweight prospect than Jon Jones, and that he’s actually a better fighter right now as well. This fight, for me anyway, could put Bader in the top ten of the weight class.

Nogueira is a legitimate top ten light heavyweight who did not look good at all in his last fight against Jason Brilz. He simply looked a bit lethargic for some reason, although he looked great in his previous UFC appearance over Luis Cane. Sometimes he just appears to be unfocused, which could lead to him giving up a round or two against a hard-working fighter like Bader.

Bader will decide where the fight takes place, and though Nogueira has said he has the advantage standing up, I prefer Bader’s power over Nogueira’s advantage in technique and variety of strikes. I think Bader will be smart enough to make any necessary in-fight adjustments. I also see Bader taking the fight down if he gets in trouble or thinks he needs a little help to win a round, and though Nogueira is dangerous off of his back, I think that Bader can stay out of trouble.

Prediction: Bader by decision

Frank Mir vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic

Yes, UFC fans…that thing above after “Cro Cop” is Mirko’s last name. I’m not sure when the UFC decided to forego last names in favor of nicknames when it comes to certain fighters, by the way.

Anyway, this fight may seem an easy one to predict, but are there two heavyweights in the UFC today that have a wider range of possible performance levels than these two? At times, Mir has looked like the best heavyweight in the world- nearly as large as Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, but faster, with cleaner stand-up technique and a superb ground game. Then, there were performances where Mir looked all too willing to accept punishment and simply didn’t look like himself…like, say, his fights against Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. As far as Cro Cop goes, well, we all know how unpredictable he is.

I have no doubts that Mir believes he can stand and strike with Cro Cop. Mir has put a lot of efforts into his stand-up over the last few years, and he believes in his technique. He knows what Cro Cop’s weapons are, and he has devised plans to allow him to strike with Cro Cop without putting himself in jeopardy. He thinks he can outmaneuver Cro Cop to land his own strikes without eating a big left hand or a huge kick from the Croatian star, and it’s hard to disagree with him.

The variety of Cro Cop’s strikes is not so good anymore, as he tends to throw his strikes one or two at a time, and doesn’t set up his high kicks well enough to land them with regularity. However, Mir’s cockiness has gotten him into trouble before, such as when he didn’t seem worried about the shots Carwin was landing against the cage until it was too late to do anything about it. He says he wants to come right at Cro Cop, and we’ll see whether or not Cro Cop will react aggressively, or be chased out of the pocket.

The ground game is a different matter, and Cro Cop’s takedown defense should hold up pretty well against Mir. Of course, Mir won’t simply shoot without setting it up, and Cro Cop may even initiate the grappling if he needs to. Cro Cop’s submission defense is better than people think. It’s not as if Josh Barnett submitted him, right? Still, he doesn’t want to spend too much time on the mat, and he definitely doesn’t want to be underneath Mir.

Yet another x-factor would be Mir’s conditioning. If it gets to the third round, I have to favor Cro Cop, unless he’s already taken a lot of damage already. Then you have Cro Cop’s seeming lack of confidence that has shown in his pre-fight comments, and his possible eye injury that he has decided to fight through. With all this to consider, how do you people expect me to make an accurate prediction? Ah, screw it. I’ll take a Mir submission, but not until he’s already softened up Cro Cop.

Prediction: Mir by submission

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California State Athletic Commission Executive Officer George Dodd says that Sonnen has been notified that he tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug after his gutsy fight against Silva at UFC 117, according to a report on Sherdog.com. The particular performance-enhancing drug in question has not been specified by Dodd as of yet, however.

Still, since a previous scan for drugs of abuse was clean for all fighters involved, it’s clear that what Sonnen tested positive for must have been a drug of the performance-enhancing variety, rather than something of a more recreational purpose. Since Sherdog’s Greg Savage broke the story, Sonnen has not yet acknowledged or commented on the report. Of the individuals involved, just Silva’s manager, Ed Soares, has had something to say at this early stage.

“If it’s true, I feel really bad for him. I know he did it to himself but it is really sad, he put on such a great performance that night. It is just a shame it will be tarnished,” Soares said.

Now, Sonnen’s reaction is to be determined yet, and given his recent history, is as unpredictable as can be. This is the same guy who ridiculed Lance Armstrong and said he gave himself cancer on a radio show, then turned around and denied making the comments or even having appeared on the show, which he has been a guest on several times.

The thing is, whether he denies it or not, we have learned in the past that a suspension is virtually guaranteed for Sonnen. Sean Sherk denies to this day having willingly ingested any banned substance leading up to his lightweight title defense against Hermes Franca years ago, but still ended up having to serve a suspension- although it was shortened from one year to six months. Sherk tested positive in California, just like Sonnen, by the way.

Even a six-month suspension would put the Silva fight in jeopardy. Technically, Sonnen would be able to train and prepare, and depending on when the suspension is deemed to have begun, as well as how long the suspension is, he may be ready to fight early in 2011. However, you never know whether Dana White would even allow Sonnen to have the immediate rematch that he was going to get if there are now questions about whether Sonnen’s performance was genuine.

It’s a definite mess in the making for Sonnen, who I really thought was looking at becoming a joke of sorts if Silva had managed to mop the floor with him in their fight. After all, if you are going to elevate trash talk to the level that Sonnen did, you have to back it up if you want anyone to take you even partially seriously again. Sonnen’s great performance against Silva earned him the right to talk all he wants and to sit on the cusp of stardom in the UFC, but a positive test for PEDs just makes him, well…a joke.

How could even Chael Sonnen ridicule Lance Armstrong for supposedly using PEDs and “giving himself cancer” if he was using PEDs himself? How could even Sonnen stand in front of a group of fans again at one of the UFC Fight Club Q&As and spout off his normally-entertaining brand of trash talk in the light of such a revelation? I realize that Sonnen is more than willing to leave the realm of reality to put out some good sound bytes (his recent comments about slapping Brock Lesnar in the face come to mind), but can even he show his face again and talk that kind of crap after all of this?

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Kenny Florian- The Other Lightweight Champ

I think that it is fairly safe to say that in a fantasy world where BJ Penn doesn’t exist, Kenny Florian has a good shot at being a successful lightweight champion. Depending on what Penn does with his career after the Frankie Edgar fight, this fantasy world could end up looking a lot like real life, but that’s all just a possibility.

The point is that it’s hard not to feel just a little bad for Florian, who has only lost to two men in almost five years of fighting in the competitive lightweight division- Penn and Sean Sherk. This is a guy who has put together a career that could lead him to the UFC Hall of Fame, even though it may not lead him to a championship. One has to suspect that with dominant champions like Penn, Georges St. Pierre, and Anderson Silva not looking to give up their titles anytime soon, Florian won’t be the only talented fighter in that boat, either.

I do think that Florian has to clear one more hurdle, both to earn another title shot or to really be able to be the Best UFC Lightweight Not Named Penn. That is, he needs to face a gifted wrestler and win. Florian has beaten Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson decisively, but I’m thinking more along the lines of Frankie Edgar or Gray Maynard (who, incidentally, Florian thinks he may end up facing next). Even a rematch with Sean Sherk would do. After all, if Penn wasn’t the champ, those are the guys Florian would have to either defeat or hold off to create a legacy for himself.

At this point, I’m almost hoping that Penn will take off to become a full-time welterweight, just to see what Florian can do without Penn around to stifle his momentum. Of course, a permanent commitment to fighting at a higher weight will help Penn succeed more than if he “half-asses” the jump up to 170 pounds, too. For now, I’ll settle for Florian-Maynard.

What’s Next for Gomi?

Takanori Gomi is far from the first superstar from a Japanese organization to finally come stateside and not fare well in his first UFC fight. At this point, I’d say we almost expect that result more than anything, actually. The question is, did Gomi lose because, like Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Wanderlei Silva and so many others, his best days were already enjoyed in the Land of the Rising Sun? Or was last Wednesday just a bad night for him? Perhaps Florian was just a horrible matchup, or Gomi didn’t prepare properly…who knows?

The best way to find out is to provide Gomi with a credible opponent that can test him, but that he should defeat if he’s on top of his game. Florian was a bad matchup because he was clearly going to be able to pick apart Gomi’s style of brawling, barring a perfectly-placed bomb or two. I wouldn’t mind seeing Gomi face someone like Spencer Fisher, as it woud both make for a great fight and also an accurate test to see where Gomi is really at.

Is Roy Nelson Championship Material?

Two UFC fights and two ridiculous knockouts later, Nelson is no longer “the fat guy that smothered Kimbo Slice on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’”. Well, okay, he is still that guy. But he’s also a legitimate heavyweight talent in a very competitive division. Nelson’s combination of competent, powerful striking and a stifling top game on the mat make him a tough matchup for many UFC heavyweights, particularly the best strikers on the roster.

However, I can’t get too excited about Nelson until I see what he can do against the UFC’s trio of freakishly athletic wrestlers. You’re not going to wear any kind of championship belt at heavyweight for the next 5+ years without being able to beat at least a couple of them, and that’s a big challenger for just about anyone. Just ask Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir. For now, a fight against one of those two gentlemen would be a great step for Nelson’s career. I think he could make a compelling fight with either man, but I don’t like Nelson’s chances against Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin or Cain Velasquez. I don’t think Nelson’s jiu-jitsu game will be nearly as strong when he’s working from the bottom, and he’s not taking any of those guys down.

Quick Shots

–It’s time for the UFC to start letting the fans see Yushin Okami again. From what I know of Anderson Silva, he would love to avenge what was a fluky disqualification loss to Okami, which means we won’t have to worry about another Patrick Cote or Thales Leites fight. Plus, Okami’s grappling gives me the impression that he will be able to challenge Silva more than most of the middleweights in the title picture. Okami’s next fight should be on the main card of a UFC event, and then he should have about one more after that to win for a title shot.

The problem is, Okami recently lost to Chael Sonnen, who is ahead of him in line to face Silva. Furthermore, you know that the UFC will still want Silva to face Vitor Belfort at some point. Add in the always-present possibility that Silva will jump up to light heavyweight or beyond for a fight, and Okami could be waiting for awhile, even if he continues winning. What I would really like to see is Wanderlei Silva vs. Vitor Belfort for a title shot, should Silva beat Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 116. That’d be an exciting fight, a great chance for Silva to avenge his quick loss to Belfort years ago, and would give the champ time to either face Sonnen or take on a heavier fighter in the meantime. Like I said, either way, Okami is looking at a year or more before he will get a whiff of the title, which is too bad.

–I was sad to see Caol Uno get absolutely stomped by Gleison Tibau the way that he did. A couple of times, Uno looked like a child in there with Tibau, who is a pretty big lightweight. Here’s hoping that Uno uses a drop in weight to extend his career, at least as it pertains to fighting here in the states. I don’t know the terms of Uno’s contract or how it could all work out, but watching Uno in the WEC would be a much better option.

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Here is the new promo video for UFC 108: Evans vs. Silva which wil be held on January 2, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

MAIN CARD
Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva
Paul Daley vs. Dustin Hazelett
Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout
Jim Miller vs. Sean Sherk
Junior Dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel

The sport of mixed martial arts has been moving at a blazing pace. Remember the days when the UFC champions were Sean Sherk, Matt Hughes, Rich Franklin, Chuck Liddell, and Tim Sylvia? That was only a few short years ago. While Rich Franklin is still headlining UFC cards, it is shocking to see how change there has been in the UFC in the recent past.

Sean Sherk was thought to be someone with the potential to dominate the lightweight division. He owned a 30-2-1 record, with defeats only to Matt Hughes and Georges St.Pierre. Shortly after Sherk became a title holder though, his image was already tarnished by a positive steroid test result in his fight with Hermes Franca. From that point on it has been a rocky journey for Sherk. His loss to Penn is nothing to be ashamed of, but Sherk was very disappointed following his loss to Frank Edgar. With the cloud of steroid suspicions, his recent loss to Edgar, and a recent shoulder injury all considered, Sherk’s fighting future doesn’t look very bright.

Matt Hughes and Chuck Liddell were two of the most dominant champions in MMA history. Liddell is already in the UFC hall of fame, and Hughes will be there soon. But while Randy Couture was able to hold the UFC heavyweight title at 44 years of age, Hughes and Liddell won’t. The narrative for Liddell and Hughes has now turned from a late attempt to regain the title, to finding a way to retire gracefully.

Both Liddell and Hughes will fight again, but their opponents remains a mystery. Liddell was knocked out in both of last two performances, and has lost four of his past five fights. His motivation isn’t about the title anymore. It will be interesting to see what kind of challenge he wants to take up in order to try to leave the UFC on a winning note.

Hughes won his last fight over Matt Serra, but seems intent on pursuing at least another victory lap. He’s been called out by all three prominent AKA fighters Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, and Mike Swick, but has said that he’s not interested in fighting any of them. Given that those AKA fighters comprise the majority of UFC welterweight contenders, it seems that by refusing to fight them, Hughes is now more interested in going out on a win, rather than in contending for the title.

Tim Sylvia’s career is simply on life support. After losing to Fedor Emelianenko, he ballooned up in weight, and was knocked out by a 48 year old Ray Mercer. Sylvia wants to get back into the UFC, but he’ll need at least a few good wins to do so, and if he does, he’ll find that the UFC heavyweight division is scarier than ever.

Looking forward to UFC 104, there are some further changes worth noting. A few years ago, Shogun Rua was thought to be the top light heavyweight fighter in the world. He had an aura of invincibility, and was also simply thought of as frightening. In the ring, Rua was ruthlessly brutal in his delivery of stomps and soccer kicks that were allowed back in Pride.

Shogun’s UFC transition was less-than spectacular. A recent bout of injuries and poor performances have shattered the aura surrounding Shogun.

Machida’s reputation, on the other hand, has grown immensely.

Even three or four years ago, Machida was known as a seriously dangerous fighter, capable of beating almost anyone. But despite a significant reputation, Machida was still unrecognized by the general public, and was mostly known as being an oddity and a mystery.

Now, Machida is known and even glorified by fight fans. Instead of being a mystery, he’s been hailed as a new discovery in MMA. The discovery and revelation of Machida is that an ancient martial art like Karate can still be effective against modern mixed martial arts. Only a few years ago, this kind of idea was inconceivable for most people.

So now, it seems, the tables have completely turned. Machida is the champion, and it looks like if Shogun can’t find away to solve Machida, then he’s likely going to be headed in the same direction as Hughes and Liddell.

One caution though, is that nothing ever seems to happen as expected in MMA. Looking back upon the past certainly shows how fast things can change, but it also gives us an indication of the unpredictability of the sport.

BJ Penn is now the UFC lightweight champion, but that has only been a recent reality. Far before Sean Sherk ever became champion, BJ Penn was touted as being the future king at 155. A loss to Jens Pulver, and a draw with Caol Uno delayed that reality. A similar thing occurred when Matt Serra shocked St. Pierre.

Joe Rogan has already hailed the dawn of the Machida era, but one wonders if he might not be speaking a little too soon.

By Darren Wong for FightMania.com

Tonight, UFC 103 goes down in Dallas, Texas, with a very exciting card that is somehow being overlooked a bit, due to the lack of a title fight.  Even without any belts on the line, though, tonight’s fights surely won’t disappoint, with a number of intriguing matchups taking place, including Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort in a fight with heavy implications for two separate divisions.

Without any further ado, let’s get right into the preview and picks for tonight’s main card bouts, which are just hours away!

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley

In one of a few fights tonight that could be Fight of the Year material (at least on paper), two electrifying strikers will take to the cage as Kampmann, who was supposed to be fighting Mike Swick for a shot at the welterweight title, faces Daley, who will be making his UFC debut.  Daley is well known to educated fans who may have seen him fight in Cage Rage, Strikeforce, or the now-defunct EliteXC.  Daley is a very polished striker who can definitely handle himself in the standup game, but that is not where the edge will be decided here.

I personally believe that Kampmann will be smart enough to mix in his wrestling and ground game with his usual dynamic striking, especially because Daley is the best striker he has faced in awhile.  There is simply too much on the line here for Kampmann to foolishly kickbox with a man who he can instead get the better of on the ground.  With neither fighter having a clear advantage in the standup, I have to go with Kampmann because he is a more well-rounded fighter, and he will most likely have a game plan that emphasizes that fact.

Prediction: Kampmann by submission

Hermes Franca vs. Tyson Griffin

Hermes Franca hasn’t been able to get things going the last couple of years.  He had the chance of a lifetime when he finally got a title shot against then-lightweight champion Sean Sherk two years ago, but lost the fight and subsequently was suspended for a failed drug test.  His comeback fight a year later was a decision loss to Frankie Edgar, and though he got back in the “W” column three months after, a torn ACL has kept him out of action since then.

Meanwhile, Tyson Griffin has only lost twice in his UFC tenure- to Edgar and Sherk, as well.  This fight will therefore determine who will go towards the top of the food chain in the division- and a likely rematch with either Edgar or Sherk- and who will be taking another step back from the title picture at 155.  Griffin’s two losses aren’t the only things holding him back- though he has been in some great fights, he’s only finished his opponent in one out of his six UFC wins.  While a long winning streak will get you a title shot in the UFC, finishing a couple of fights will go a long way towards expediting that process.

Unfortunately, Griffin won’t be finishing Franca.  This fight could be very exciting, with both fighters liking to stand up and throw big punches.  If Franca can’t land his huge right hand though, he will likely end up on the losing side of a decision, especially if Griffin decides to assert his wrestling advantage.  Franca is a good grappler, but I don’t see him submitting Griffin.

Prediction: Griffin by decision

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

Trigg summed this one up by saying that Koscheck is like a younger version of himself, with more speed than he had.  I think he may be giving himself a bit too much credit though, as Koscheck has already displayed better boxing skills than Trigg has even to this point of his career, and is a more decorated wrestler, to boot.  Koscheck, of course, is trying to get back towards the top of the division after a fluky setback at the hands of the nevertheless talented Paulo Thiago knocked him down a peg or two.

We’ll have to see if Koscheck is a bit more leery of letting his hands go, now that he knows he can, in fact, be knocked out.  Previously, Koscheck was quite vocal of his excitement towards his improving standup and had become increasingly aggressive in that area, but will he take it down a notch to play it a bit safer this time around? 

I’m even more interested to see what Trigg will bring to the table.  Trigg was always one of those welterweights who was very good, but just not as good as the elite welterweights of his time (Matt Hughes, Georges St. Pierre).  He has been on a roll since joining Xtreme Couture, and I’m very curious as to how he will approach this fight.  To be honest, I just don’t see how he will beat an opponent who seems to be better than him at every area of the sport.  Then again, I’m pretty impressed by Koscheck and think he is a future world champion.  In this one, I think Trigg once again loses when facing an elite fighter.

Prediction: Koscheck by KO/TKO

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Junior dos Santos

It is always tough to evaluate fights when one of the participants has not fought up to their true ability for some time.  Such is the case with Cro Cop, who has never looked quite as good as he did towards the end of his Pride days, when he was emerging as a serious threat to Fedor Emelianenko’s crown.  In the UFC, though, he has looked unimpressive and even a bit gun-shy against average competition. 
Meanwhile, dos Santos is a bit of an unknown commodity, as he has never been out of the first round and has only fought in the UFC twice.  He’s looked extremely impressive, but we haven’t seen his complete game, and his opponents were not exactly outstanding strikers…certainly not on the level of Cro Cop.

If Cro Cop is operating anywhere close to his potential, this will be a dangerous fight for dos Santos.  Everything that I’ve seen and heard indicates to me that dos Santos is very confident coming off of his two devastating knockout wins in the UFC thus far, which tells me that he will go ahead and stand with Cro Cop.  That’s a bad decision.  I could definitely be wrong, but the Cro Cop who I expect to show up will capitalize on dos Santos’ over-aggressiveness at some point in their fight.

Prediction: Cro Cop by KO/TKO

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

This is really the tale of two very different fighters, at least in respect to how they are regarded within the MMA world.  You have one fighter who dominated his division for quite some time and has only lost to the very best (Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida).  Then, you have a fighter who continues to be regarded as one of the most skilled on the planet, despite the fact that he has not been able to sustain a high level of performance for more than a few fights here and there during his long career.  Even leading up to this fight, fans and pundits alike seem to be overestimating Belfort and underestimating Franklin.

I don’t know why Franklin can’t get any respect- as mentioned before, he’s only lost to three truly elite fighters.  He has an excellent all-around skill set and is a very intelligent fighter when the bell sounds.  His composure along with his underrated standup and wrestling make him a tough fight for any opponent.  Meanwhile, I don’t get how people can proclaim that Belfort is “back” again with any degree of confidence.  How many times have we heard that?  Given that Belfort is training in a great camp now and appears to be very focused and ready to go, but let’s give Franklin a little credit- even at his best, Belfort is in for a tough fight.

There is always the chance that Belfort catches Franklin.  Franklin is far from impossible to rock with a good punch or two (as seen in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva).  However, Franklin has excellent recovery once he’s hurt, even though Belfort’s speed would seem to ensure that Franklin won’t get the chance to recuperate if he is dazed by a punch.  I don’t think this one will hit the ground often, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Franklin take Belfort down.  Belfort is a jiu-jitsu black belt, but he won’t sub Franklin.  I think that Franklin will take this one by a judges’ decision, though Belfort will provide plenty of memorable moments in what could be a really great fight.

Prediction: Franklin by decision

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com

The UFC Countdown for 103 highlighted upcoming fights between Rich Franklin and Vitor Belfort, Mirko Cro Cop and Junior Dos Santos, and Josh Koscheck and Frank Trigg. There hasn’t been a lot talk concerning the contest between Martin Kampmann. That’s a big disappointment for Kampmann, who was originally scheduled to be fighting in a welterweight title elimination match with Mike Swick.

During the UFC 100 broadcast, Joe Rogan asked himself “Who’s next,” to face off against the dominant welterweight champion, Georges St. Pierre. UFC matchmaker Joe Silva responded by pointing to the then-scheduled bout between Martin Kampmann and Mike Swick.

In fact, the whole UFC 103 card had a completely different look back then. At that time, the most notable match on the card was the one featuring Swick and Kampmann, while other bouts were the ones featuring Trigg and Koscheck, the Escudero and Miller, Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca, as well as a main event that was then undetermined. Sean Sherk has been replaced by Tyson Griffin due to injury.

So at that time it seemed like Kampmann vs Swick would at least be a co-main event. When Swick pulled out of the fight due to a concussion, the whole scenerio changed. Now Kampmann finds himself in a fourth billing afterthought of a match against Paul Daley.

Mike Swick and Martin Kampmann have both been having a lot of success lately. Both had been doing well at middleweight before suffering losses to bigger and stronger fighters in Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt respectively.

Following those losses, both fighters moved down to welterweight, where they have again been findng a lot of success. Swick has compiled a four fight win streak including victories over Ben Saunders, Marcus Davis, while Kampmann beat Carlos Condit, adding to a resume that already included a notable victory over former middleweight title challenger Thales Leites.

Unfortunately for Swick and Kampmann, neither has been able to get that breakthrough performance necessary to warrant a title shot. In search of a fresh faced challenger, the UFC brass thought that matching the two up might finally provide enough momentum for the victor to get that shot.

A victory over Paul Daley might not be enough to convince fans that he has what it takes to challenge St. Pierre. Paul Daley is known to be a very good striker, but lacks the grappling skills found in most of the welterweight contenders.

Kampmann has been steadily improving his grappling game, to the point that he should be able to submit Daley. However, earning a victory by submission might not be in his best interests. A submission victory for Kampmann is probably the easiest way for Kampmann to win, but it would not be the most impressive.

Daley has been submitted before, but he has never been knocked out (His TKO loss was in a bout stopped due to a dislocated thumb.) For Martin Kampmann to possibly earn himself a title shot, he’ll need to knock out Paul Daley, or at the very least, engage in a real barn-burner of a striking match, and come out as the unanimous victor.

Even that might not be enough to earn himself a title shot. Part of the problem with having a dominant champion is that it becomes increasingly difficult to make fans believe that fights with contenders will be competitive.

The UFC had this problem with Anderson Silva, and now they have the problem with St. Pierre.

Even Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch are considered to be far below GSP despite being the next highest ranked fighters in the division.

So what is the UFC going to do?

Jon Fitch is scheduled to fight Ricardo Almeida at UFC 106, while Thiago Alves is currently scheduled to fight Paulo Thiago at UFC 107. A victory for Almeida might grant him a title shot, but it seems unlikely that wins for Fitch or Alves will be enough to earn rematches with the champion.

Koscheck and Trigg are both former contenders, but both need more than one win to put themselves back into contention.

Mike Swick seems to be one fight away, but due to his concussion, he’s sidelined and currently has no opponent.

Barring an implosion of Strikeforce and a move by Jake Shields into the Octagon, the UFC welterweight division is still in search of a clear title challenger.

Because of this, the UFC will likely be giving the next title shot to the guy who is most impressive in his next outing. That’s why Martin Kampmann must be impressive in his next fight, despite the current lack of hype.

Vanessa from Wichita, Kansas wants to know what I think of Kenny Florian’s chances of making it to the later rounds:

I get what you’re saying about BJ Penn being in shape and all of that, but don’t you think that Kenny Florian would still be better off in the later rounds of the fight instead of the earlier rounds?  Do you think that Kenny has what it takes to get past those first couple of rounds and make it a real fight??  Thanks for answering my question, I love the site!

First of all, thanks for the kind words!  As far as Florian’s chances to weather the early storm against BJ Penn, I would say that he has a chance to do so.  It all depends on how things go.  BJ does have some knockout power, but we’ve seen against Sean Sherk and even a bit against Georges St. Pierre that he is more likely to pick away at his opponents for awhile and wear them down.  If the fight consists of the two standing for most of the time, I think that Florian could make it into the later rounds and even make it fairly competitive.

However, I’m not sure about that if Penn is able to get Florian to the mat.  I just think that Penn’s jiu-jitsu and intensity in the first couple of rounds will be too much if the fight hits the floor, to be honest.  Also, even if Florian does kick it up a notch in rounds four or five, if he has already given away the first three rounds he will have to finish BJ, and that doesn’t seem likely.  Of course, I could be wrong!  That’s why they fight, right?

Sam E. from New York wants to know my thoughts on whether the Anderson Silva-Forrest Griffin fight could become a snoozefest…

Sure, there may not be a lot of question as to who will win the Silva-Griffin fight, but what are the chances that it will be another boring one, like Silva’s last two?  Do you think Griffin will do enough to push the pace, even if it means he might have a lower chance of winning because of putting himself in danger?  I hate to say it, but I see this fight being a possible stinker.

I’m really hoping that it won’t be a dull fight.  It’s not so much the dullness of Silva’s fights, but the lack of any kind of drama that gets me.  He’ll fight a guy like Thales Leites who has no chance of mounting an offense unless the fight hits the mat, and yet he will peck away at him instead of taking the openings that present themselves to finish the fight.  So you end up with a five-round fight where you know all along that one fighter has no real chance of winning.

In this case, I really do think that Forrest will push the pace.  I think that his game plan will involve smothering Silva when the chances arise, and taking him down, then controlling him will be the only way I can see Forrest pulling out a victory here.  Silva will have to be good with his footwork to keep from being cornered and to keep giving himself good angles to strike with.  I think this fight will be a good one, but who knows?  It’s getting hard to predict what we will get out of Anderson Silva.  Well, besides wins, of course.

Finally, here’s an e-mail from an unnamed Johny Hendricks supporter who thinks I’m not giving their fighter his due:

You have to be kidding me with your prediction on the Hendricks fight.  Sadollah won’t have any answer to Hendricks’ intensity and strength, and we haven’t seen yet if he will crumble under that kind of pressure.  I see this fight ending with ground and pound, and I think Sadollah’s miracle arm bars will not be seen at all on Saturday.

You could very well be right.  It was a hard fight to pick, but I went the way I did because I know Sadollah has improved his already dangerous guard game, and I think that Hendricks will be a little overly active with punches in the guard when the fight hits the mat, which will definitely lead to arm bar opportunities for someone with an active guard like Sadollah.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Hendricks does very well, but I just keep thinking Sadollah will take this one.

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com